Iowa Hawkeyes vs Illinois Fighting Illini Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/28/2026

Game Time: 6:09 pm ET, Saturday, March 28, 2026

Venue:  Toyota Center, Houston, TX

Where to Watch:  TBS, truTV

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Iowa +6.5, Illinois -6.5; Over/Under:  138.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Iowa +6.5, Illinois -6.5; Over/Under:  138.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Iowa +6.5, Illinois -6.5; Over/Under:  138.5 points

Iowa Hawkeyes:  24-12 (10-10) (9th place, Big Ten)

Illinois Fighting Illini:  27-8 (15-5) (4th place, Big Ten)

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Iowa Hawkeyes:  4-1  last 5

Illinois Fighting Illini:  4-1  last 5

Iowa is entering this game with a 24-12 record overall, a 10-10 record in conference games, and they are 7-1 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Nebraska Cornhuskers in their last game. Bennett Stirtz led the team in points in that game with 20 while Tate Sage was next on the team with 19. Kael Combs led the team in assists with 5 in that game while Tate Sage led the team in rebounds with 8. They were 51.9% from the field, 43.3% from 3-point range, and 83.3% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 75 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 66.1 PPG against them. Iowa has an ATS record of 21-15 this season and their O/U record is 20-16.

Illinois is entering this game with a 27-8 record overall, a 15-5 conference record, and they are 5-3 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Houston Cougars in their last game. David Mirković led the team in points in that game with 14 while Keaton Wagler and Andrej Stojaković each were next on the team with 13. Tomislav Ivišić and Keaton Wagler each led the team in assists with 3 in that game while Keaton Wagler led the team in rebounds with 12. They were 43.1% from the field, 39.1% from 3-point range, and 57.1% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 84.2 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 69 PPG against them. Illinois has an ATS record of 21-14 this season and their O/U record is 15-20.

The current betting odds have Illinois listed as a 6.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Illinois has looked really good in their games this season with their 27-8 record overall and their 15-5 conference record which had them right near the top of the Big Ten. They have looked good in their neutral site games too with their 5-3 record in those. Meanwhile, Iowa has looked good in their games this season with their 24-12 record overall, but their 10-10 conference record had them right in the middle of the Big Ten. They are also 7-1 in their neutral site games this season. Iowa has looked great in this tournament so far and they definitely haven't had an easy path. They had a tough 1st round game against Clemson and then managed to pull off a huge upset win over 1 seed Florida. Now they are off another upset win over Nebraska in their last one, but Nebraska was a team that they played well against in the regular season and that might not be the case here. This team isn't good enough to win the National Championship so they are going to run out of gas sooner or later, and this might be the game after 2 tough comebacks in their last 2. Illinois has also been rolling in this tournament and even though they have had an easier path so far, they have a lot of momentum on their side after taking down Houston in the last round who was in the National Championship just a year ago. Illinois is also a true contender so they aren't going to get tripped up by Iowa here, and they already crushed Iowa on the road earlier this season in a game where they were in complete control from start to finish. Illinois is a better team on both the offense and defensive ends, so this is going to be the end of the road for Iowa who has done their best impression of a Cinderella. The best way to place a bet here is on Illinois to cover the spread in this game. 

Iowa Illinois Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Saturday, March 28, 2026 (6:09 pm ET start time) is Illinois 77 Iowa 65.

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Iowa Hawkeyes: 15-26 ATS as an underdog. 10-19 ATS off a win against a conference rival. 15-23 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%). 23-15 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%). 22-15 OVER revenging a loss vs opponent.

Illinois Fighting Illini: 6-1 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. 12-6 ATS in all tournament games. 13-5 ATS versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 45% or more. 11-5 OVER as a neutral court favorite or pick. 32-17 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%).

Iowa Hawkeyes:  P. McCollum (G) Out - Foot.

Illinois Fighting Illini:  T. Bilic (F) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Jakstys (C) Out - Undisclosed. T. Rodgers (G-F) Questionable - Knee.

“We called them into the huddle and just said very nicely, ‘I’d like you to play harder, guys,’ and that seemed to work.” - Ben McCollum after his team’s win against Nebraska in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. 

“I think it’s a mental focus. We’ve been very good at times defensively. It’s just sustaining it. We’ve got very capable defenders, we’ve got size and length, and we just got to make shots difficult.” - Brad Underwood after his team’s win against Houston in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament on Thursday. 

T. Banks 

K. Combs 

C. Koch 

C. Manyawu 

B. Stirtz

K. Boswell 

T. Ivisic 

D. Mirkovic 

A. Stojakovic 

K. Wagler

PPG: Bennett Stirtz (19.7)

APG: Bennett Stirtz (4.4)

Reb/G: Tavion Banks (4.7)

PPG: Keaton Wagler (17.7)

APG: Keaton Wagler (4.3)

Reb/G: David Mirkovic (8)

Coaches:

Iowa Hawkeyes: Ben McCollum (1st season)

Illinois Fighting Illini: Brad Underwood (9th season)