by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Sep 29, 2026
Game Time: 9:30 am ET, Sunday, October 4, 2026
Venue: Northumberland Development Project, London, England
Where to Watch: NFL Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Colts -3.5, Commanders +3.5; Over/Under: 47.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Colts -3.5, Commanders +3.5; Over/Under: 47 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Colts -3.5, Commanders +3.5; Over/Under: 47 points
Season Record
Indianapolis Colts: 1-2 (2nd place, AFC South)
Washington Commanders: 1-2 (3rd place, NFC East)
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Recent Form
Indianapolis Colts: won their last game at home against the Houston Texans 19-17.
Washington Commanders: won their last game at home against the Seattle Seahawks 33-31.
Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders Preview and Analysis
The Colts are entering this game with a 1-2 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-1 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They won their last game against the Houston Texans 19-17. Daniel Jones was the starting QB and he completed 24/36 passes for 235 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Jonathan Taylor led the team in rushing yards with 68. Josh Downs led the receivers with 77 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Charvarius Ward led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles while DeForest Buckner and Adetomiwa Adebawore each led the defense in sacks with 1.5. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Commanders are entering this game with a 1-2 record overall and they have a 0-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 0-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They won their last game against the Seattle Seahawks 33-31. Marcus Mariota was the starting QB and he completed 19/31 passes for 183 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Jacory Croskey-Merritt led the team in rushing yards with 36. Terry McLaurin led the receivers with 77 receiving yards on 6 receptions and 1 TD. Jeremy Reaves led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. Sonny Styles and Kain Medrano each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
Colts vs Commanders Prediction
The current betting odds have the Colts listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Colts haven't looked great in their games this season with their 1-2 record overall, but that record has them right near the top of the AFC South. This is going to be their 1st neutral site game of the season too. Meanwhile, the Commanders haven't looked good in their games this season with their 1-2 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the NFC East. They are going to be playing their 1st neutral site game of the year here. The Commanders are coming off a 33-31 win over the Seahawks in their last one and picked up their 1st win of the season, but they have some major issues going on. They managed to win that game with Mariota starting in a desperate situation after a 0-2 start, but Mariota was also in this position last season and couldn't keep the team afloat. The offense looked a lot better last week against one of the best defenses in the NFL, but they have been far too inconsistent on offense this season. Their defense has also looked terrible, giving up a ton of points in their last 2 games now, and they haven't looked like they have improved much from having one of the worst defenses in the NFL last season. The Colts had a terrible start to the season, but they are also coming off their 1st win of the year and have looked better in every game. They got crushed at home by a good Ravens team in week 1, but they bounced back in week 2 on Sunday Night Football, almost beating the Chiefs in a game that went to OT. Now they are coming off a 19-17 divisional win over the Texans and that win is going to kickstart them with some momentum. The defense looked a lot better last week too and they have one of the best running backs in the NFL to lean on when the offense is having trouble. The best way to place a bet here is on the Colts to cover the spread in this game.
Colts Commanders Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, October 4, 2026 (9:30 am ET start time) is Colts 28 Commanders 17.
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NFL Betting Trends
Indianapolis Colts: 2-7 ATS in non-conference games. 1-4 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game. 2-8 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game. 6-1 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 16-9 OVER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points.
Washington Commanders: 9-4 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game. 7-2 ATS after a win by 6 or less points. 15-1 OVER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 6-1 OVER off an upset win as an underdog. 7-2 OVER after a win by 6 or less points.
Key Injuries
Indianapolis Colts: None.
Washington Commanders: None.
Notable Quotes
“It's awesome, obviously, to get that victory. To get that win against a division opponent is huge for our football team and now we've got to go to London and try to get that done over there, too.” - Shane Steichen after his team’s win against the Texans in their last game.
“We're definitely thinking of him. He's a great teammate. We love him. Anytime a guy gets banged up like that, you're just thinking of him and pulling for him as much as you can." - Dan Quinn after his team’s win against the Seahawks in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Indianapolis Colts
WR Treadwell, Laquon
WR Allen, Keenan
WR Downs, Josh
TE Warren, Tyler
QB Jones, Daniel
RB Taylor, Jonathan
Washington Commanders
WR McLaurin, Terry
WR Brown, Dyami
WR Diggs, Stefon
TE Bates, John
QB Mariota, Marcus
RB Croskey-Merritt, Jacory
Statistical Leaders
Indianapolis Colts
Passing: Daniel Jones (611)
Rushing: Jonathan Taylor (258)
Receiving: Josh Downs (186)
Touchdowns: Jonathan Taylor (4)
Washington Commanders
Passing: Marcus Mariota (294)
Rushing: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (142)
Receiving: Terry McLaurin (141)
Touchdowns: Stefon Diggs (3)
Coaches:
Indianapolis Colts: Shane Steichen (4th season)
Washington Commanders: Dan Quinn (3rd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
