by Rod Pearson
Wednesday, Nov 27, 2024
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, December 1, 2024
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Colts -2.5, Patriots +2.5; Over/Under: 42.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Colts -3, Patriots +3; Over/Under: 42.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Colts -2.5, Patriots +2.5; Over/Under: 42.5 points
Season Record
Indianapolis Colts: 5-7 (2nd place, AFC South)
New England Patriots: 3-9 (4th place, AFC East)
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Indianapolis Colts: lost their last game at home against the Detroit Lions 24-6.
New England Patriots: lost their last game on the road against the Miami Dolphins 34-15.
Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots Preview and Analysis
The Colts are entering this game with a 5-7 record overall and they have a 1-3 record in their divisional games too. They are 3-3 in their home games, 2-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Detroit Lions 24-6. Anthony Richardson was the starting QB and he completed 11/28 passes for 172 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Anthony Richardson led the team in rushing yards with 61. Michael Pittman Jr. led the receivers with 96 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Zaire Franklin led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while Zaire Franklin, DeForest Buckner, and Laiatu Latu each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Patriots are entering this game with a 3-9 record overall and they have a 1-3 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-4 in their home games, 2-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Miami Dolphins 34-15. Drake Maye was the starting QB and he completed 22/37 passes for 222 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Antonio Gibson led the team in rushing yards with 31. Demario Douglas led the receivers with 62 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Marcus Jones led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Christian Barmore and Brenden Schooler each led the team in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Colts vs Patriots Prediction
The current betting odds have the Colts listed as a 2.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Colts haven't looked good in their games this season with their 5-7 record overall, but that record has them in 2nd place of the AFC South and still able to make a run at the division. Anthony Richardson has been struggling all season and even lost his job to Joe Flacco at one point, but as bad as his passing game has been, their run game has been great with him starting and they find ways to win games. They are coming off a loss to the Lions in their last one, but the Lions have the best record in the NFL so that was always going to be a tough game. They did beat the Jets the week before and they are getting a much easier defense to play against here. Meanwhile, the Patriots have looked terrible in their games this season with their 3-9 record overall which has them at the bottom of the AFC East with one of the worst records in the entire NFL. They are coming off a 34-15 loss to the Dolphins in their last one and their defense hasn't really been stopping anything lately. Drake Maye has definitely made this offense better since taking over, but he can't help the team on defense where the real problems are. They have been especially weak against the run lately and that will be a big issue against a Colts team that wants to keep this game on the ground. The best way to place a bet here is on the Colts to cover the spread in this game.
Colts Patriots Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, December 1, 2024 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Colts 20 Patriots 13.
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NFL Betting Trends
Indianapolis Colts: 5-0 ATS vs. poor passing teams averaging 175 or less passing yards/game. 5-1 ATS when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%). 7-3 ATS vs. poor offensive teams - scoring 17 or less points/game. 4-1 UNDER as a road favorite of 7 points or less. 4-1 1H UNDER against AFC East division opponents.
New England Patriots: 16-27 ATS in all games. 5-14 ATS in home games. 3-14 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 3-8 ATS off a road loss. 15-6 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3. 10-2 UNDER off a road loss. 6-3 UNDER after a loss by 14 or more points.
Key Injuries
Indianapolis Colts: T. Lewis (DE) Questionable - Elbow. G. Stewart (DT) Injured - NIR - Rest. D. Buckner (DT) Injured - NIR - Rest. Z. Franklin (LB) Injured - NIR - Rest. K. Moore (CB) Injured - Knee. J. Downs (WR) Injured - Calf. B. Smith (T) Injured - Foot. B. Raimann (T) Out - Knee. M. Pittman (WR) Injured - Back.
New England Patriots: C. Gonzalez (CB) Questionable - Hip. C. Barmore (DT) Questionable - NIR - Personal. A. Jennings (LB) Questionable - Knee. K. White (DE) Questionable - Knee. C. Strange (G) Questionable - Knee. D. Wise (DE) Questionable - Foot. J. Roy (DT) Out - Neck. D. Ekuale (DT) Injured - Elbow. M. Mapu (SAF) Questionable - Neck. S. Takitaki (LB) Questionable - Knee. K. Dugger (SAF) Questionable - Ankle. V. Lowe (T) Questionable - Shoulder. D. Godchaux (DT) Injured - Back.
Notable Quotes
“We've got to take advantage of our opportunities. This league comes down to inches, it comes down to yards and you've got to take advantage of those opportunities. We've had issues down in the red zone and you have to look at the tape and clean it up.” - Shane Steichen after his team’s loss against the Lions in their last game.
“Once those guys cross the white lines, there’s nothing I can do for them. There’s nothing any coach can do for them. It’s my job to continue to prepare not only them, but our coaches as well.” - Jerod Mayo after his team’s loss against the Dolphins in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Indianapolis Colts
WR Pierce, Alec
WR Pittman Jr., Michael
WR Gould, Anthony
TE Alie-Cox, Mo
QB Richardson, Anthony
RB Taylor, Jonathan
New England Patriots
WR Bourne, Kendrick
WR Boutte, Kayshon
WR Douglas, DeMario
TE Henry, Hunter
QB Maye, Drake
RB Stevenson, Rhamondre
Statistical Leaders
Indianapolis Colts
Passing: A. Richardson (1402)
Rushing: J. Taylor (708)
Receiving: A. Pierce (629)
Touchdowns: J. Taylor (5)
New England Patriots
Passing: D. Maye (1458)
Rushing: R. Stevenson (598)
Receiving: H. Henry (535)
Touchdowns: R. Stevenson (7)
Coaches:
Indianapolis Colts: Shane Steichen (2nd season)
New England Patriots: Jerod Mayo (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
