by Rod Pearson
Monday, Nov 06, 2023
Game Time: 9:30 am ET, Sunday, November 12, 2023
Venue: Deutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Where to Watch: NFL Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Colts -2, Patriots +2; Over/Under: 43.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Colts -1.5, Patriots +1.5; Over/Under: 43.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Colts -2, Patriots +2; Over/Under: 43.5 points
Season Record
Indianapolis Colts: 4-5 (3rd place, AFC South)
New England Patriots: 2-7 (4th place, AFC East)
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Recent Form
Indianapolis Colts: won their last game on the road against the Carolina Panthers 27-13.
New England Patriots: lost their last game at home against the Washington Commanders 20-17.
Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots Preview and Analysis
The Colts are entering this game with a 4-5 record overall and they have a 2-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-4 in their home games, 3-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against the Carolina Panthers 27-13. Gardner Minshew was the starting QB and he completed 17/26 passes for 127 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Jonathan Taylor led the team in rushing yards with 47. Michael Pittman Jr. led the receivers with 64 receiving yards on 8 receptions. Shaquille Leonard led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while DeForest Buckner, Adetomiwa Adebawore, and Dayo Odeyingbo each led the defense in sacks with 1. Kenny Moore II came away with 2 interceptions for them while Segun Olubi also had 1 interception in that game.
The Patriots are entering this game with a 2-7 record overall and they have a 2-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-4 in their home games, 1-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They lost their last game against the Washington Commanders 20-17. Mac Jones was the starting QB and he completed 24/44 passes for 220 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Rhamondre Stevenson led the team in rushing yards with 87 and 1 TD. Demario Douglas led the receivers with 55 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Ja'Whaun Bentley led the defense in that game with 10 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Ja'Whaun Bentley led the defense in sacks with 2. Kyle Dugger came away with the only interception for them in that game.
Colts vs Patriots Prediction
The current betting odds have the Colts listed as a 2 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Colts are 4-5 this season and they haven't looked that bad in a lot of their games whether they had Richardson or Minshew starting. They finally snapped their losing streak with a win against the Panthers last week and now they travel to Germany for this game. Meanwhile, the Patriots are 2-7 this season and have looked terrible in their games as their offense has been struggling a lot with Mac Jones leading the charge. The Patriots lost again at home last week to the Commanders and now they have to travel for this game in Germany. The Colts not only have the better record here but they also have a lot more talent on their team and have been playing like it this season. The Patriots have struggled all season and their struggles will continue here as their entire team is in disarray this season. The best way to place a bet here is on the Colts to cover the spread in this game.
Colts Patriots Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, November 12, 2023 (9:30 am ET start time) is Colts 24 Patriots 10.
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NFL Betting Trends
Indianapolis Colts: 77-49 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game. 31-18 ATS after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games. 11-5 UNDER as a favorite. 18-10 UNDER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points.
New England Patriots: 6-15 ATS as an underdog. 1-6 ATS after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games. 16-7 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3. 12-6 UNDER off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less.
Key Injuries
Indianapolis Colts: J. Brents (CB) day-to-day - Quadricep. J. Downs (WR) day-to-day - Knee. Z. Franklin (LB) day-to-day - Knee. B. Smith (OT) day-to-day - Foot. A. Richardson (QB) I-R - Shoulder. G. Stewart (DT) Elig Week 14 - Suspension. E. Hull (RB) I-R - Knee. D. Flowers (CB) I-R - Achilles. J. Woods (TE) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. D. Pinter (G) I-R - Ankle. T. Leo (DE) I-R - Undisclosed. G. Avery (DE) I-R - Knee. A. Dulin (WR) I-R - Knee. J. Witt (OT) I-R - Hip. D. Scott (S) I-R - Knee.
New England Patriots: T. Brown (OL) day-to-day - Ankle. D. Parker (WR) day-to-day - Concussion. C. Anderson (OL) Out indefinitely - Illness. K. Bourne (WR) I-R - Knee. R. Reiff (OL) Out indefinitely - Knee. K. Boutte (WR) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. T. Wheatley Jr. (OT) Out indefinitely - Knee. M. Judon (LB) Early Dec - Bicep. C. Gonzalez (CB) I-R - Shoulder. D. Ekuale (DL) Out indefinitely - Bicep. M. Jones (DB) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. I. Bolden (CB) I-R - Neck. R. McMillan (LB) I-R - Achilles.
Notable Quotes
“The way he practices and the way he works by watching tape and doing it the right way. When you watch tape, you’re going to make plays. And that’s what he did for us. Fourteen points by him is phenomenal.” - Shane Steichen on Kenny Moore after his team’s win against the Panthers in their last game.
“The results aren’t there right now. It stinks. And there’s no excuses." - Mac Jones after their loss against the Commanders in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Indianapolis Colts
WR Pierce, Alec
WR Pittman Jr., Michael
WR Downs, Josh
TE Granson, Kylen
QB Minshew, Gardner
RB Taylor, Jonathan
New England Patriots
WR PARKER, DEVANTE
WR Smith-Schuster, JuJu
WR Douglas, Demario
TE Henry, Hunter
QB Jones, Mac
RB Stevenson, Rhamondre
Statistical Leaders
Indianapolis Colts
Passing: G. Minshew (1527)
Rushing: Z. Moss (615)
Receiving: M. Pittman Jr. (593)
Touchdowns: Z. Moss (6)
New England Patriots
Passing: M. Jones (1861)
Rushing: R. Stevenson (394)
Receiving: K. Bourne (406)
Touchdowns: K. Bourne (4)
Coaches:
Indianapolis Colts: Shane Steichen (1st season)
New England Patriots: Bill Belichick (24th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
