by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Dec 16, 2022
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Where to watch: NFL Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Vikings -4; Vikings -200, Colts +170; O/U 48
FanDuel: Vikings -4.5; Vikings -215, Colts +180
BetMGM: Vikings -4; Vikings -200, Colts +165
Caesars: Vikings -4; Vikings -210, Colts +175
Season record
Colts: 4-8-1 (3rd place, AFC South)
Vikings: 10-3 (1st place, NFC North)
We’re coming down the home stretch of the NFL season and there’s still a lot left to get excited for on your TV screen (or your streaming device if you’re like me and watch Sunday Ticket on a Fire Stick. That works, too). Nevertheless, the final few weeks of the regular season are going to be hectic for everyone on the field, but just as much as everyone off it. You’re probably going to need to figure out which plays are the best ones in terms of teams sitting the star players for the playoff advantage, or which teams are going all in for the final playoff push. If you need that extra push, trust that our champion handicappers can get the job done for you. Matt Fargo has a 17-9-0 run over the last 30 days in the NFL. Brian Bitler has continued to stay consistent, despite a wild, unpredictable season, by going 16-9-0. Do you want a piece of this action? Make sure to stay locked to bigal.com and follow our champion handicappers so you can be a champion, too!
Colts - Vikings preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Colts: Bye (lost 54-19 at Cowboys in Week 13)
Vikings: lost 34-23 at Lions
Colts analysis
We had to expect this from the Indianapolis Colts at some point. The highest of highs with winning Jeff Saturday’s debut in Las Vegas to losing three in a row are understandable. The lowest of lows came last week in the 54-19 loss to the Dallas Cowboys.
The Colts covered their first two in the Saturday era — the win against the Raiders and the one-point loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Since then, they’ve failed to cover their last two despite being 11-point underdogs in Dallas. To be fair, the Colts kept that one close in the fourth quarter before things fell off the rails.
The Colts have failed to cover in five of their last seven. Deficiencies at quarterback, coaching and everything alike has put them in this spot. The over has cashed in three of the last four after the under totaled three times before Frank Reich was fired. Simply put, the offense isn’t fixed with Matt Ryan at the helm. The defense is OK but capable of giving off some big plays if things don’t go their way.
Indianapolis will have their hands full trying to slow down Justin Jefferson and his record pace. Dalvin Cook is also nearing 1,000 yards and the Colts are 21st in the NFL against the run. Indy is going to need a game from Ryan and his receivers against the worst pass defense in the league (287.2 yards per game) in order to have a chance. Get that game to open up the running look for Jonathan Taylor, too.
Vikings analysis
There might have been no more telegraphed result last week than the Minnesota Vikings, at underdogs despite a 10-2 record, losing 34-23 to the favored Detroit Lions. Once again, Minnesota’s fraudulent ways do not pave way to trust them in many scenarios.
The Vikings have benefitted tremendously from a soft schedule and barely scraping by those easy opponents. With a Colts team that has no identity right now, this is the perfect opportunity for them to finish things and move a step closer to an NFC North title.
Minnesota is 2-2 against the spread in its last four after a 3-0-1 run in the previous four. Of course, the two losses were their two outright losses — to the Lions and the 40-3 drubbing at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys.
The Vikings are bound to head into the playoffs, a home game intact, and plenty of weapons on offense. The problem is doing enough defensively against the teams that matter. Look what Dallas did, look what Detroit did. Much more well-rounded offenses can make life hell on Minnesota because their inability to be a big-play team may come back to haunt them.
Prediction
The over is 8-1 in the Colts’ last nine road games against teams with a winning record, and given how the Colts have just fallen apart at the seams the last few weeks, that doesn’t seem to be good foreshadowing. Minnesota should run away with this with no problem. Vikings by 14
Betting trends
Vikings are 84-59 ATS at home when the total is between 42.5 and 49 since 1992.
The over is 149-112 when the Colts play on the road since 1992.
The over is 8-0 when the Colts play on the road following a game where the turnover margin was -4 or worse.
The under is 15-4 when the Colts play on a Saturday since 1992.
Statistical leaders
Colts:
Passing: Matt Ryan – 2,875 yards, 13 TD, 13 INT
Rushing: Jonathan Taylor – 861 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Michael Pittman – 755 yards, 2 TD
Defense: Yannick Ngakoue – 8.5 sacks
Vikings:
Passing: Kirk Cousins – 3,358 yards, 20 TD, 9 INT
Rushing: Dalvin Cook – 950 yards, 8 TD
Receiving: Justin Jefferson – 1,500 yards, 6 TD
Defense: Za’Darius Smith – 9.5 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
