by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, November 23, 2025
Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Colts +3, Chiefs -3; Over/Under: 50.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Colts +3, Chiefs -3; Over/Under: 50.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Colts +3.5, Chiefs -3.5; Over/Under: 50.5 points
Season Record
Indianapolis Colts: 8-2 (1st place, AFC South)
Kansas City Chiefs: 5-5 (3rd place, AFC West)
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Indianapolis Colts: won their last game at a neutral site against the Atlanta Falcons 31-25 in overtime.
Kansas City Chiefs: won their last game at home against the Denver Broncos 22-19.
Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs Preview and Analysis
The Colts are entering this game with an 8-2 record overall and they have a 2-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 5-0 in their home games, 2-2 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Atlanta Falcons 31-25 in OT. Daniel Jones was the starting QB and he completed 19/26 passes for 255 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Jonathan Taylor led the team in rushing yards with 244 and 3 TDs. Tyler Warren led the receivers with 99 receiving yards on 8 receptions. Zaire Franklin led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Zaire Franklin, Camryn Bynum, and Nick Cross each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Chiefs are entering this game with a 5-5 record overall and they have a 1-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 4-1 in their home games, 1-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Denver Broncos 22-19. Patrick Mahomes was the starting QB and he completed 29/45 passes for 276 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Kareem Hunt led the team in rushing yards with 59 and 1 TD. Travis Kelce led the receivers with 91 receiving yards on 9 receptions and 1 TD. Chamarri Conner led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Chamarri Conner and Chris Jones each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Colts vs Chiefs Prediction
The current betting odds have the Chiefs listed as a 3 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Chiefs haven't looked great in their games this season with their 5-5 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the AFC West. They have been struggling a lot this season and need to get going now if they want to make the playoffs, but they have looked a lot better on their home field this year with their 4-1 home record. Meanwhile, the Colts have looked great in their games this season with their 8-2 record overall which has them right at the top of the AFC South with one of the best records in the entire NFL. They haven't been a great road team though with their 2-2 road record this season. They are coming out of their bye week after beating the Falcons in Germany 31-25 in their last one, but the Colts haven't looked as good lately as they did to start the season. They have a great offense with one of the best RB's in the NFL, but Daniel Jones hasn't looked as good in their last few games and that will be a problem against this Chiefs defense. The Chiefs still have a really good defense and their offense has looked a lot better at home. They are going to be desperate to win this game at home with their playoff hopes starting to diminish. The best way to place a bet here is on the Chiefs to cover the spread in this game.
Colts Chiefs Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, November 23, 2025 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Chiefs 27 Colts 16.
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NFL Betting Trends
Indianapolis Colts: 1-5 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. 0-5 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game. 1-4 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 yards/game or more. 4-1 UNDER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game.
Kansas City Chiefs: 14-7 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. 5-1 ATS after a loss by 6 or less points. 10-4 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 rushing yards/game or more. 16-6 UNDER as a home favorite. 6-0 UNDER in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5.
Key Injuries
Indianapolis Colts: K. Moore II (CB) Injured - Rest. S. Ebukam (DL) Injured - Knee. T. Lewis (DL) Injured - Groin. C. Ward (CB) Injured - Concussion. J. Carlies (LB) Injured - Ankle. A. Gould (WR) Injured - Knee.
Kansas City Chiefs: J. Taylor (OT) Injured - Knee. C. Omenihu (DL) Injured - Ankle. T. Smith (OG) Injured - Back. I. Pacheco (RB) Injured - Knee. G. Karlaftis (DL) Injured - Thumb. J. Hicks (CB) Injured - Shoulder. K. Suamataia (OT) Injured - Concussion. X. Worthy (WR) Injured - Ankle. J. Bassa (LB) Injured - Shoulder.
Notable Quotes
“When I bounced to the outside, there’s no lack of trust, it’s just hit the edge full speed. When you have that kind of trust with the guys on the edge, you get those special runs like that.” - Jonathan Taylor after their win against the Falcons in their last game.
“It sucks. Don’t get me wrong. You got to feel that, but you got to be able to kind of use that energy to push it into the next week, into the rest of the season, and all you can focus on is the next game. You get another opportunity to go out there and prove yourself.” - Patrick Mahomes after their loss against the Broncos in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Indianapolis Colts
WR Pittman Jr., Michael
WR Pierce, Alec
WR Downs, Josh
TE Warren, Tyler
QB Jones, Daniel
RB Taylor, Jonathan
Kansas City Chiefs
WR Brown, Hollywood
WR Worthy, Xavier
WR Rice, Rashee
TE Kelce, Travis
QB Mahomes, Patrick
RB Hunt, Kareem
Statistical Leaders
Indianapolis Colts
Passing: Daniel Jones (2,659)
Rushing: Jonathan Taylor (1,139)
Receiving: Tyler Warren (617)
Touchdowns: Jonathan Taylor (17)
Kansas City Chiefs
Passing: Patrick Mahomes (2,625)
Rushing: Kareem Hunt (353)
Receiving: Travis Kelce (631)
Touchdowns: Kareem Hunt (7)
Coaches:
Indianapolis Colts: Shane Steichen (3rd season)
Kansas City Chiefs: Andy Reid (13th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
