Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 9/18/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Game time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Where to watch: CBS

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Colts -3.5
FanDuel: Colts -3.5
BetMGM: Colts -3.5
Caesars: Colts -3.5

Season record
Colts: 0-0-1
Jaguars: 0-1

Week 2 in the NFL season is already off to a hot start with Kansas City showing why it's Kansas City. What will Sunday bring in what should be a week filled with questions that need to be answered upon the like? Given the fact that Al McMordie is 56-33 in his last 89 is a testament to how much you should be paying attention to our champion handicappers and following along with what they do this year. Want to get on the action? Make sure you follow Al and all of our other handicappers during this NFL season.

Colts - Jaguars preview, analysis and prediction


Last week
Colts: tied 20-20 at Texans
Jaguars: lost 28-22 at Commanders

Your guess is as good as mine as to how this game will pan out, but there’s this weird feeling with me that the Jacksonville Jaguars are the better AFC South team of this bunch? Because if the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans are tying, and the Tennessee Titans are losing to the New York Giants, congrats to the Jaguars for almost winning last week and be in a division that’s wide open.

Clearly I don’t make the rules in this lexicon, but the Jaguars might have a chance. The Texans are going to fall off at some point, the Colts are going to be about a .500 team and the Titans have no idea what they want to do outside of giving the ball to Derrick Henry.

If you look at the Jaguars last week, albeit a loss to the Washington Commanders, they showed some fight late despite falling behind 14-3. Trevor Lawrence threw for 275 yards and a touchdown, not to be outdone by the four-touchdown, two-interception effort from Carson Wentz, but the Jaguars showed they have some talent to build around Lawrence. James Robinson returned from his Achilles injury to run for 66 yards and a touchdown, and Christian Kirk looked every bit like a No. 1 receiver to reel in 117 yards.

But with the Jaguars, it’s a process. It’s not something that’s going to happen overnight and it’s not a formula that’s going to prove fruitful over time. Lawrence, in Year 2, looked solid in his rookie year but had to run for his life a lot. Doug Pederson is going to have a positive impact on this group as the games go on.

But even despite some errant throws and some instances that didn’t make sense, Lawrence  apparently didn’t look good in the clutch situations, like in the red zone.

“I don’t have all the answers right now,” Lawrence said. “We shot ourselves in the foot a lot. There’s a lot of things that we control that we didn’t do a great job of controlling. We have to play smarter all the way around, every position. There is a lot of stuff we have to work on.”

I think given the situation and circumstances surrounding this franchise, there’s no need for Lawrence to be hard on himself. Sure, it’s a winnable game against Washington and the Jaguars need to win these types of games in order to be taken seriously down the road.

But for the love of god, this is the Jacksonville Jaguars we’re talking about. It’s a team that has a great season once every 20 years and makes the AFC Championship Game once in a blue moon. And they have the best quarterback they’ve had in ages while just now getting him the help he needs. It’s not all on him. The defense can’t give up over 300 yards to Wentz and can’t have mishaps of everyone else.

“We beat ourselves,” coach Doug Pederson said. “Just some costly mistakes at the wrong time. Games come down to three to five plays every week. We got to finish better, and we got to take care of those little things.”

And now they get the Colts this week, a divisional rival who somehow tied with the Houston Texans last week. This is something that bears repeating because how does this team do it? Matt Ryan threw for 352 yards and a touchdown in his Colts debut, with Michael Pittman catching nine of those for 121 yards and a touchdown.

More importantly in this whole thing, the Jaguars have won seven in a row at home against the Colts.

“It’s not just us and Jacksonville. There are other teams that have this same problem, just other ways,” Colts running back Nyheim Hines said. “If you’re a team in the NFL, of all 31 teams, there’s going to be somebody that is going to have your number every time you play them or match up.”

Keep telling yourselves that. Again, it’s the Jaguars.

Prediction


But if there was a time for the Jaguars to win a game, it’d be this week. I want to believe in this group, Pederson aside, and think that Lawrence is going to be a great quarterback. Beating the Colts at home and pulling at 1-1 is a good start. Jaguars by 10

Betting trends


Colts are 10-1 ATS following a division game the last three years.

Colts are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 road games.

Jaguars are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 off a road loss.

Jaguars are 5-9 ATS as a home underdog in their last 14.

Statistical leaders


Colts:
Passing: Matt Ryan -- 352 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Jonathan Taylor -- 161 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Michael Pittman -- 121 yards, 1 TD
Defense: Kwity Paye -- 2 sacks

Jaguars:
Passing: Trevor Lawrence -- 275 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: James Robinson -- 66 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Christian Kirk -- 117 yards
Defense: Travon Walker -- 1 sack, 1 INT

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Indianapolis Colts - Jacksonville Jaguars prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NFL projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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