Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans Prediction, Preview and Odds - 01/04/2026

Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, January 4, 2026

Venue:  NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

Where to Watch:  CBS

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Colts +10.5, Texans -10.5; Over/Under:  39.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Colts +10, Texans -10; Over/Under:  39.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Colts +10.5, Texans -10.5; Over/Under:  39.5 points

Indianapolis Colts:  8-8 (3rd place, AFC South)

Houston Texans:  11-5 (2nd place, AFC South)

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Indianapolis Colts:  lost their last game at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars 23-17.

Houston Texans:  won their last game on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers 20-16.

The Colts are entering this game with an 8-8 record overall and they have a 2-3 record in their divisional games too. They are 5-3 in their home games, 2-5 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Jacksonville Jaguars 23-17. Philip Rivers was the starting QB and he completed 17/30 passes for 147 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Jonathan Taylor led the team in rushing yards with 70 and 1 TD. Tyler Warren led the receivers with 43 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Nick Cross led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Adetomiwa Adebawore and Laiatu Latu each led the defense in sacks with 1. Germaine Pratt came away with the only interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

The Texans are entering this game with an 11-5 record overall and they have a 4-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 6-2 in their home games, 5-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Los Angeles Chargers 20-16. C. J. Stroud was the starting QB and he completed 16/28 passes for 244 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Jo'quavious Marks led the team in rushing yards with 71. Jayden Higgins led the receivers with 88 receiving yards on 2 receptions and 1 TD. Henry To'oTo'o led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 7 assisted tackles while Derek Barnett led the defense in sacks with 2. Azeez Al-Shaair came away with the only interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have the Texans listed as a 10 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Texans have looked really good in their games this season with their 11-5 record overall which has them right near the top of the AFC South. They have looked great on their home field too with their 6-2 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Colts have looked good in their games this season with their 8-8 record overall, but that record has them right near the bottom of the AFC South in a competitive division. They have been a terrible road team this season too with their 2-5 road record. The Colts had one of the best starts to the season in the NFL and were leading the division, but lately they have looked terrible as they have fallen apart in the final weeks. They have lost 6 games in a row now after having such a strong start to the year and they are off a 23-17 loss to the Jags in their last one which ended their season. The Texans have been rolling though and they have a ton of momentum on their side with 8 wins in a row now. They are off a 20-16 win over the Chargers in their last one and they are still playing for something in this game since they can win the division with a win and a Jaguars loss. The Texans also have one of the best defenses in the NFL so the Colts aren't going to do much here with some of their starters sitting, and the Texans offense has also looked better lately too. The best way to place a bet here is on the Texans to cover the spread in this game. 

Colts Texans Prediction:  Our NFL Pick for Sunday, January 4, 2026 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Texans 24 Colts 7.

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Indianapolis Colts: 3-6 ATS after a loss by 6 or less points. 6-12 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. 0-5 ATS in week 17 or later in the regular season. 6-3 UNDER after a loss by 6 or less points. 5-2 UNDER vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season.

Houston Texans: 15-8 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. 8-4 ATS off a road win. 8-3 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. 32-19 UNDER in all games. 11-6 UNDER versus division opponents.

Indianapolis Colts:  B. Johnson (LB) Questionable - Illness. D. Buckner (DL) Out - Neck. D. Scott (S) Out - Knee. B. Raimann (OT) Questionable - Elbow. A. Dulin (WR) Questionable - Hamstring. S. Gardner (CB) Questionable - Calf. T. Goodson (RB) Questionable - Ankle. J. Jones (CB) Injured - Knee. A. Richardson Sr. (QB) Out - Eye. D. Ogletree (TE) Out - Neck. D. Tucker (OG) Questionable - Shoulder. T. Bortolini (C) Out - Concussion. A. Gould (WR) Out - Foot. J. Tuimoloau (DL) Out - Oblique.

Houston Texans:  D. Taylor (DL) Out - Ankle. A. Carter (CB) Out - Hamstring. T. Brown (OT) Out - Ankle. D. Schultz (TE) Injured - Knee. J. Watson (WR) Questionable - Calf. A. Al-Shaair (LB) Injured - Ankle. D. Autry (DL) Injured - Knee. D. Stingley Jr. (CB) Injured - Oblique. J. Hill (LB) Out - Calf. K. Lassiter (CB) Injured - Foot. A. Brinkman (LS) Injured - Knee. W. Marks (RB) Injured - Ankle. A. Ersery (OT) Questionable - Thumb. D. Horton (DL) Injured - Hip. S. Rankins (DL) Injured - Knee.

“We were talking in there and I think the start, the hot start, is what probably makes this whole thing hurt even more. If it had been one of those kinds of back-and-forth years the whole year — you look up and you find a way to win eight, nine games and you go, ‘Shoot, just kind of a grinding kind of year.' But the fact they were at eight (wins) so soon and it's just been a tough last six-game stretch or so.” - Philip Rivers after their loss against the Jaguars in their last game. 

“These guys have been playing lights out, all year, every single game. But the way the D-line showed up today with sack after sack, really putting pressure on the quarterback, it was really cool to see a lot of different guys get a sack.” - DeMeco Ryans after his team’s win against the LA Chargers in their last game. 

WR Pittman Jr., Michael

WR Pierce, Alec

WR Downs, Josh

TE Warren, Tyler

QB Leonard, Riley

RB Taylor, Jonathan

WR Collins, Nico

WR Higgins, Jayden

WR Kirk, Christian

TE Schultz, Dalton

QB Stroud, C.J.

RB Marks, Woody

FB Brooks, British

Passing: Daniel Jones (3,101)

Rushing: Jonathan Taylor (1,559)

Receiving: Alec Pierce (871)

Touchdowns: Jonathan Taylor (20)

Passing: C.J. Stroud (2,872)

Rushing: Woody Marks (655)

Receiving: Nico Collins (1,117)

Touchdowns: Nico Collins (7)

Coaches:

Indianapolis Colts: Shane Steichen (3rd season)

Houston Texans: DeMeco Ryans (3rd season)