by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Oct 04, 2022
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Where to watch: Prime Video
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Broncos -3.5
FanDuel: Broncos -3.5
BetMGM: Broncos -3.5
Caesars: Broncos -3.5
Season record
Colts: 1-2-1
Broncos: 2-2
Week 5 of the NFL season is here and there's already so much intrigue around the league. Division races are surprisingly tight in some parts, some teams still have a chance to better their season, and some teams are surprising everyone with their level of play. Cooper Rush for MVP, anybody? But in the betting world, it was a strong week for Tom Stryker going 5-0-1 (+$5,000 net). As we progress through the one-quarter mark in the NFL season, it's a subtle reminder that anything can happen on any given time. If you're wanting to cash in big, make sure to follow our champion handicappers all season long on our Best Bets page at bigal.com.
Colts - Broncos preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Colts: lost 24-17 vs. Titans
Broncos: lost 32-23 at Raiders
This was supposed to be the week for the Indianapolis Colts to prove that maybe they are for real and that they could take over the top spot in the AFC South. Turns out that was only a fluke after losing to the Tennessee Titans 24-17 this past Sunday. Derrick Henry looked like his old self and the Colts’ offense couldn’t get anything going beyond Matt Ryan throwing 37 times. But if there’s anything concerning about the Colts right now, it’s that running back Jonathan Taylor has been anything but what he was last year. You would think that the arrival of Ryan would further enhance the balance that the Colts would get from a run-pass standpoint, but with just around 80 yards per game through four games and only one touchdown – and coming off a 20-carry, 42-yard performance against the Titans – that’s not the case and it’s why the Colts are off to a 1-2-1 start.
This was supposed to be the week for the Indianapolis Colts to prove that maybe they are for real and that they could take over the top spot in the AFC South. Turns out that was only a fluke after losing to the Tennessee Titans 24-17 this past Sunday. Derrick Henry looked like his old self and the Colts’ offense couldn’t get anything going beyond Matt Ryan throwing 37 times. But if there’s anything concerning about the Colts right now, it’s that running back Jonathan Taylor has been anything but what he was last year. You would think that the arrival of Ryan would further enhance the balance that the Colts would get from a run-pass standpoint, but with just around 80 yards per game through four games and only one touchdown – and coming off a 20-carry, 42-yard performance against the Titans – that’s not the case and it’s why the Colts are off to a 1-2-1 start.
"We feel like we're seeing some things we want to see," Colts coach Frank Reich said. "But in the end we need to play better, we need to execute better, we need to stop turning the ball over, we need to start getting turnovers, we need to run the football a little bit better and start faster."
The Colts, realistically, should have two wins right now, but failing to get that Week 1 win in Houston was probably the worst thing that could’ve happened to them. Ryan has been pedestrian, the offense overall hasn’t gotten the kind of production you’d expect, and it’s wasting some strong efforts by the Indy defense. The group needs to start putting some points on the board, and there’s no excuse as to why with the weapons around Ryan that they can’t average close to 30 a game.
At this point, it might be baby steps for the Denver Broncos. You go the first three weeks trying to look competent on offense, your head coach coming from the Aaron Rodgers coaching tree has to bring a consultant out of retirement to help you during gameplan situations, and in a division game, you score a season-high 23 points. Except the defense that has carried this team through three weeks runs out of gas late and allows 32 to the Las Vegas Raiders, who found an odd time to finally learn how to run the ball. But in all seriousness, the Broncos are in a bit of trouble at this point. Russell Wilson had his best game as a Bronco by throwing for 237 yards and two touchdowns, but the Broncos lost running back Javonte Williams for the year to an ACL injury.
"We have to get better," first-year coach Nathaniel Hackett said. "Across the board as an offense, I think we will."
Never mind the fact that that statement was as predictable as the Denver offense, but it hasn’t been smooth sailing to start the Wilson era. And until Denver starts to figure out how things can get better, it’s going to be an uphill climb.
Prediction
The Broncos are 3-point favorites, being at home and the defense playing as well as it can be. Denver is somehow only 6-6 in its last 12 when favored, but the key is it’s just 8-11 straight up at home. Conventional wisdom says the Broncos, but I wouldn’t blame anyone for taking the Colts in a potential upset bid. Broncos by 10
Betting trends
Colts are 6-1 ATS in their last seven when an underdog between 3.5 and 9.5 points.
Colts are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 off a division game.
Over is 34-13 since 1992 when the Colts are coming off an upset loss.
Broncos are 12-14 ATS in their last 26 conference games.
Broncos are 10-9 ATS in their last 19 home games.
Statistical leaders
Colts:
Passing: Matt Ryan -- 1,125 yards, 5 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Jonathan Taylor -- 328 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Michael Pittman Jr. -- 224 yards, 1 TD
Defense: Kwity Paye -- 3 sacks
Broncos:
Passing: Russell Wilson -- 980 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Javonte Williams -- 204 yards
Receiving: Courtland Sutton -- 343 yards, 1 TD
Defense: Bradley Chubb -- 3 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
