by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Nov 18, 2021
Game time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Buffalo, NY
Where to watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Bills -7
BetMGM: Bills -7
Caesars: Bills -7
Season record
Colts: 5-5 (2nd place, AFC South)
Bills: 6-3 (1st place, AFC East)
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Colts - Bills preview and analysis
Last week
Colts: won 23-17 vs. Jaguars
Bills: won 45-17 at Jets
Are the Buffalo Bills in trouble?
If it weren’t for the fact they actually have competition in the AFC East, perhaps that wouldn’t be the case but here are the Bills alternating wins and losses over the last five weeks and find themselves just slightly ahead of the New England Patriots.
But the Bills will try to win their second straight game when they face the Indianapolis Colts in Buffalo on Sunday; primarily, a Colts team that has played well over the last month and is one overtime loss to the Derrick Henry-less Tennessee Titans from making this a clean sweep.
Think back to over a month ago on Oct. 10. Buffalo was playing Sunday Night Football against the Kansas City Chiefs. It was a revenge game from the AFC Championship and the Bills were on this run of playing strong football since their Week 1 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Buffalo dominated that game 38-20 and established itself as the top team in the AFC.
Since then, things have unraveled a tad. The Bills lost by three points to the now-best team in the AFC in the Titans and wins have only come against the Miami Dolphins and last week by 28 against the New York Jets. Buffalo even has a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars on the ledger. So winning, and doing it consistently, has been hard to come by for the Bills.
Maybe a cakewalk against the Jets is what Buffalo needed. Josh Allen threw for 366 yards and two touchdowns and the Bills offense outgained the Jets 489-366 while the defense forced five turnovers. Stefon Diggs reeled in a season-high 162 yards and a touchdown on eight receptions for his ninth game of 100 yards with the Bills. Even receiver Gabriel Davis had 105 yards for his second career 100-yard game.
"That's one thing we're not going to do: ride the roller coaster of we're the worst team to ever play, and now we're the best team to ever play," Allen said. "We're going to stay consistent and steady."
Buffalo has the best scoring defense in the league giving up 15 points per game and showed why that was the case last week. Tre’Davious White finally got on the board with his first interception of the season, as did corner Taron Johnson.
Despite that great defense, the Bills have not been getting to the quarterback enough. Their leading sack artists are Mario Addison and rookie Greg Rousseau, who have three apiece. The Colts, who too have taken care of teams they should beat over the last five weeks, have seen a weird roller coaster from quarterback Carson Wentz.
If there was a time to get some sacks and make some plays, it would be this week.
The Colts are coming off a six-point win over the Jaguars, but more importantly Wentz has not thrown an interception in seven of his last eight starts. The passing volume wasn’t at its best -- 22 of 34 for 180 yards -- but Wentz got major help in the running game from Jonathan Taylor with 116 yards and a touchdown. One more rushing touchdown will tie Taylor with LaDainian Tomlinson with an eight-game streak of 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown.
"It's big, especially against a division opponent," quarterback Carson Wentz said. "It seems like we've been climbing out of this hole for a while now. It wasn't our best game, but a win's a win."
This is a rematch of last year’s AFC Wild Card game that the Bills won. Philip Rivers was the quarterback that day and there’s been a considerable dropoff between him and Wentz.
Prediction
The Colts have done well against the spread against AFC East teams (4-1) over the past three seasons but they haven’t been impressive over the last month to think they can win this game. Buffalo back at home should help wonders in what should be a comfortable victory. Bills by 14
Betting trends
The Colts are 12-8 ATS on the road the past three seasons, but 9-11 straight up.
The Colts are 10-3 ATS the past three seasons coming off a division game.
The Bills are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 November games.
The Bills are 14-2 straight up as a home favorite the past three seasons.
Players to watch
Colts: Star linebacker Darius Leonard is one of two linebackers this season with at least five tackles in all 10 games this season.
Bills: Safety Jordan Poyer, who leads the team with four interceptions, had a season-high 10 tackles and that fourth pick last week.
Statistical leaders
Colts:
Passing: Carson Wentz -- 2,378 yards, 17 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Jonathan Taylor -- 937 yards, 9 TD
Receiving: Michael Pittman -- 729 yards, 5 TD
Defense: DeForest Buckner -- 4.5 sacks
Bills:
Passing: Josh Allen -- 2,602 yards, 19 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: Devin Singletary -- 398 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Stefon Diggs -- 750 yards, 4 TD
Defense: Jordan Poyer -- 4 INT
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
