by Rod Pearson
Friday, Dec 22, 2023
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, December 24, 2023
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Colts +1, Falcons -1; Over/Under: 44.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Colts +1, Falcons -1; Over/Under: 44.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Colts +1, Falcons -1; Over/Under: 44.5 points
Season Record
Indianapolis Colts: 8-6 (2nd place, AFC South)
Atlanta Falcons: 6-8 (3rd place, NFC South)
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Indianapolis Colts: won their last game at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-13.
Atlanta Falcons: lost their last game on the road against the Carolina Panthers 9-7.
Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons Preview and Analysis
The Colts are entering this game with an 8-6 record overall and they have a 3-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 3-4 in their home games, 4-2 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-13. Gardner Minshew was the starting QB and he completed 18/28 passes for 215 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Trey Sermon led the team in rushing yards with 88. Michael Pittman Jr. led the receivers with 78 receiving yards on 4 receptions. E. J. Speed led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Dayo Odeyingbo and Samson Ebukam each led the defense in sacks with 1.5. Julian Blackmon and Nick Cross each came away with 1 interception for them in that game.
The Falcons are entering this game with a 6-8 record overall and they have a 3-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 4-3 in their home games, 2-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Carolina Panthers 9-7. Desmond Ridder was the starting QB and he completed 12/20 passes for 152 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Tyler Allgeier led the team in rushing yards with 45. Jonnu Smith led the receivers with 61 receiving yards on 2 receptions. Jessie Bates III led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while Calais Campbell, Zach Harrison, and Ta'Quon Graham each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
Colts vs Falcons Prediction
The current betting odds have the Colts listed as a 1 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Colts have looked great in their games this season with their 8-6 record overall as Shane Steichen has turned this team around in his 1st year as head coach. They have been a lot better in their road games too with their 4-2 road record and they are right in control of their destiny for the Wild Card in the AFC. The Colts need to win this game for the playoffs and they have looked really good in their games lately as they continue to win games. Meanwhile, the Falcons haven't looked great this season with their 6-8 record overall and they just lost last week to the Panthers who are the worst team in the NFL this season. The Falcons are still in the hunt for both the Wild Card and the NFC South but it is looking very bleak with the way they have been playing lately and their offense has been a big problem too. The Colts are not going to have any problems putting up points in this game and it will be tough for the Falcons to match them with the way their offense has been running lately. The best way to place a bet here is on the Colts to cover the spread in this game.
Colts Falcons Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, December 24, 2023 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Colts 28 Falcons 13.
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NFL Betting Trends
Indianapolis Colts: 9-5 ATS in all games. 79-49 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game. 34-19 ATS after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game. 6-3 UNDER after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game. 32-22 UNDER after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game.
Atlanta Falcons: 4-10 ATS in all games. 3-10 ATS as a home favorite. 0-6 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game. 29-19 UNDER in all games. 16-8 UNDER against AFC South division opponents. 11-4 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread.
Key Injuries
Indianapolis Colts: Z. Moss (RB) Ques Sun - Forearm. T. Brown (CB) Out indefinitely - Suspension. I. McKenzie (WR) Out indefinitely - Suspension. B. Smith (OT) Ques Sun - Knee. S. Olubi (LB) Ques Sun - Hip. M. Pittman Jr. (WR) Ques Sun - Concussion. J. Woods (TE) I-R - Hamstring. J. Taylor (RB) Early Jan - Thumb. A. Richardson (QB) I-R - Shoulder. E. Hull (RB) I-R - Knee. D. Flowers (CB) I-R - Achilles. D. Pinter (G) I-R - Ankle. T. Leo (DE) I-R - Undisclosed. G. Avery (DE) I-R - Knee. A. Dulin (WR) I-R - Knee. J. Witt (OT) I-R - Hip. D. Scott (S) I-R - Knee.
Atlanta Falcons: M. Hollins (WR) Ques Sun - Ankle. D. Onyemata (DL) Ques Sun - Ankle. K. McGary (OT) Ques Sun - Knee. C. Lindstrom (G) Ques Sun - Ankle. B. Dupree (LB) Ques Sun - Back. K. Street (DL) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. G. Jarrett (DL) I-R - Knee. J. Ali (WR) Out indefinitely - Ankle. T. Andersen (LB) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. M. Hennessy (OL) I-R - Knee. A. Ogundeji (LB) I-R - Ankle. F. Franks (TE) I-R - Lower Body. E. Greenidge (OL) I-R - Leg. I. Enechukwu (DL) I-R - Undisclosed. A. Williams (RB) I-R - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“He's just worked his tail off on the scout team all year, he's just made play after play. It's like, we've got to get this guy up on the active roster.” - Shane Steichen on D.J. Montgomery after his team’s win against the Steelers in their last game.
“I've got to throw the ball and live to see another down. We’re all playmakers and we’ve got to try and make plays out there. We just all have to know the right time and right situation. That wasn’t it.” - Desmond Ridder after their loss against the Panthers in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Indianapolis Colts
WR Pierce, Alec
WR Pittman Jr., Michael
WR Downs, Josh
TE Granson, Kylen
QB Minshew, Gardner
RB Taylor, Jonathan
Atlanta Falcons
WR London, Drake
WR Jefferson, Van
TE Pitts, Kyle
TE Smith, Jonnu
QB Heinicke, Taylor
RB Robinson, Bijan
FB Smith, Keith
Statistical Leaders
Indianapolis Colts
Passing: G. Minshew (2739)
Rushing: Z. Moss (764)
Receiving: M. Pittman Jr. (1062)
Touchdowns: Z. Moss (7)
Atlanta Falcons
Passing: D. Ridder (2528)
Rushing: B. Robinson (801)
Receiving: D. London (769)
Touchdowns: B. Robinson (7)
Coaches:
Indianapolis Colts: Shane Steichen (1st season)
Atlanta Falcons: Arthur Smith (3rd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
