Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, Preview and Odds - 06/16/2025

Game Time: 8:30 pm ET, Monday, June 16, 2025

Venue:  Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK

Where to Watch:  ABC

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Pacers +9.5, Thunder -9.5; Over/Under:  223.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Pacers +9.5, Thunder -9.5; Over/Under:  223 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Pacers +9.5, Thunder -9.5; Over/Under:  223.5 points

Indiana Pacers:  50-32 (2nd place, Central Division)

Oklahoma City Thunder:  68-14 (1st place, Northwest Division)

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Indiana Pacers:  6-4 last 10

Oklahoma City Thunder:  7-3 last 10

The Pacers are entering the playoffs with a 50-32 record overall this season and they were 20-20 in their road games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Pascal Siakam led the team in points in that game with 20 while Tyrese Haliburton was next on the team with 18 points. Tyrese Haliburton led the team in assists in that game with 7 while Aaron Nesmith led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 42.5% from the field, 30.6% from 3-point range, and 75.8% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 117.4 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 115.1 PPG against them. The Pacers have an ATS record of 49-50-3 this season and their O/U record is 53-47-2.

The Thunder are entering the playoffs with a 68-14 record overall this season and they were 35-6 in their home games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Indiana Pacers. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in points in that game with 35 while Jalen Williams was next on the team with 27 points. Jalen Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein each led the team in assists in that game with 3 while Chet Holmgren led the team in rebounds with 15. They were 47.4% from the field, 18.8% from 3-point range, and 89.5% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 120.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 107.6 PPG against them. The Thunder have an ATS record of 62-37-4 this season and their O/U record is 54-47-2.

The current betting odds have the Thunder listed as a 9.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 5 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Thunder from the Western Conference and the 4th seeded Pacers from the Eastern Conference for the NBA Finals. This series is all tied up 2-2 after the Thunder won game 4 on the road. The Thunder made it a 2-2 series with a 111-104 win over the Pacers in the 4th game of this series and that was a big win for them to stay in this series. They were trailing for a lot of that game and already lost game 3 on the road too, but they fought hard and were able to come back late and put the Pacers away. Now the Thunder have all the momentum on their side going back to Oklahoma City for game 5 and they are going to bring their best effort to make sure they don't fall behind again since they haven't had a lead in this series yet. The Pacers managed to steal game 1 in the same fashion that they have been pulling off upset wins all playoffs, but they didn't look good in that game at all as they were trailing by double digits most of the night, and they looked even worse in game 2 when the Thunder were in complete control and won by double digits. The Thunder did what they needed to do in game 4 and now they are in a great situation to take their first lead of this series at home since they have been rolling over teams on their home court all playoffs. The best way to place a bet here is on the Thunder to cover the spread in this game. 

Pacers Thunder Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Monday, June 16, 2025 (8:30 pm ET start time) is Thunder 124 Pacers 109.

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Indiana Pacers: 13-20 ATS against Northwest division opponents. 0-4 ATS in the 5th game of a playoff series. 22-14 OVER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. 33-16 OVER off a home loss. 27-14 OVER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%).

Oklahoma City Thunder: 21-14 ATS against Central division opponents. 72-37 ATS as a home favorite. 25-11 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game. 28-19 OVER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. 28-15 OVER when playing with 2 days rest.

Indiana Pacers:  J. Walker (PF) Day To Day - Ankle. I. Jackson (C) Out For Season - Calf.

Oklahoma City Thunder:  N. Topic (PG) Out For Season - ACL.

“This kind of a challenge is going to have extreme highs and extreme lows. This is a low right now and we're going to have to bounce back from it.” - Rick Carlisle after his team’s loss against the OKC Thunder in game 4 of this series on Friday.

“We knew it when we woke up this morning; 3-1 is a lot different than 2-2 going back home.” - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander after their win against the Pacers in game 4 of this series on Friday.

PG Tyrese Haliburton

SG Andrew Nembhard

SF Aaron Nesmith

PF Pascal Siakam

C Myles Turner

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

SG Luguentz Dort

SF Jalen Williams

PF Chet Holmgren

C Isaiah Hartenstein

PPG: P. Siakam (20.2)

APG: T. Haliburton (9.2)

Reb/G: P. Siakam (6.9)

PPG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (32.7)

APG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (6.4)

Reb/G: I. Hartenstein (10.7)

Coaches:

Indiana Pacers: Rick Carlisle (4th season)

Oklahoma City Thunder: Mark Daigneault (5th season)