Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/27/2025

Game Time: 9:30 pm ET, Sunday, April 27, 2025

Venue:  Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI

Where to Watch:  TNT

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Pacers +4.5, Bucks -4.5; Over/Under:  226 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Pacers +4.5, Bucks -4.5; Over/Under:  226 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Pacers +4.5, Bucks -4.5; Over/Under:  226.5 points

Indiana Pacers:  50-32 (2nd place, Central Division)

Milwaukee Bucks:  48-34 (3rd place, Central Division)

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Indiana Pacers:  8-2 last 10

Milwaukee Bucks:  8-2 last 10

The Pacers are entering the playoffs with a 50-32 record overall this season and they were 20-20 in their road games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Milwaukee Bucks. Pascal Siakam led the team in points in that game with 28 while Aaron Nesmith was next on the team with 18 points. Tyrese Haliburton led the team in assists in that game with 10 while Aaron Nesmith and Tyrese Haliburton each led the team in rebounds with 7. They were 43.3% from the field, 31.7% from 3-point range, and 76.9% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 117.4 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 115.1 PPG against them. The Pacers have an ATS record of 38-44-3 this season and their O/U record is 44-39-2.

The Bucks are entering the playoffs with a 48-34 record overall this season and they were 27-14 in their home games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Indiana Pacers. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Gary Trent Jr. each led the team in points in that game with 37 while AJ Green was next on the team with 12 points. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Porter Jr. each led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Giannis Antetokounmpo led the team in rebounds with 12. They were 47.2% from the field, 36.6% from 3-point range, and 81.8% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 115.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 113 PPG against them. The Bucks have an ATS record of 44-40-2 this season and their O/U record is 44-42.

The current betting odds have the Bucks listed as a 4.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 4 of a 7 game series between the 4th seeded Pacers and the 5th seeded Bucks from the Eastern Conference for the 1st round of the NBA playoffs. The Pacers are leading this series 2-1 after the Bucks won game 3 at home. The Bucks made it a 2-1 series with a 117-101 win over the Pacers in the 3rd game and they looked a lot better than they did in the first 2 games. The Bucks looked like they couldn't even compete in the first 2 games of this series, getting blown out in both games, but they finally gained some momentum at home with their 1st win of the season. It looked like that 3rd game was going to be very similar at first as the Pacers were right in the game in the 1st half and even had a 10 point lead by halftime, but the Bucks took control of that game in the 3rd quarter and never looked back once they took a lead in the 2nd half. That was Lillard's 2nd game back in this series and he looked a lot better on their home court where the Bucks have been better all season. They also got a lot more contributions from other players on the team. The Pacers have looked great in this series and they were rolling coming into the playoffs, but they weren't a great road team this year and they showed it with that 2nd half collapse. They had a 20-20 road record and the Bucks can take advantage of that. The Bucks did play very well against the Pacers during the regular season too, and now they have some momentum on their side from that win and they can use that to even up this series. The best way to place a bet here is on the Bucks to cover the spread in this game.

Pacers Bucks Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Sunday, April 27, 2025 (9:30 pm ET start time) is Bucks 124 Pacers 114.

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Indiana Pacers: 8-4 ATS off a road loss against a division rival. 88-65 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% of their attempts or more. 42-22 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days. 55-34 OVER as an underdog  of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 

Milwaukee Bucks: 5-9 ATS in the first round of the playoffs. 16-26 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%). 31-19 OVER as a home favorite of 6 points or less. 35-22 OVER in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5.

Indiana Pacers:  Q. Jackson (PG) Out For Season - Calf.

Milwaukee Bucks:  T. Smith (PF) Day To Day - Ankle. 

“We were bad on both sides of the ball. They were great, we were bad.” - Rick Carlisle after his team’s loss against the Bucks in game 3 of this series on Friday.

“There were two reasons. The offensive part because he’s really aggressive and the defensive part because of his hands. We wanted somebody aggressive to attack Haliburton. I thought he did that." - Doc Rivers after his team’s win against the Pacers in game 3 of this series on Friday.

PG Tyrese Haliburton

SG Andrew Nembhard

SF Aaron Nesmith

PF Pascal Siakam

C Myles Turner

PG Damian Lillard

SG Gary Trent Jr.

SF Kyle Kuzma

PF Giannis Antetokounmpo

C Brook Lopez

PPG: P. Siakam (20.2)

APG: T. Haliburton (9.2)

Reb/G: P. Siakam (6.9)

PPG: G. Antetokounmpo (30.4)

APG: D. Lillard (7.1)

Reb/G: G. Antetokounmpo (11.9)

Coaches:

Indiana Pacers: Rick Carlisle (4th season)

Milwaukee Bucks: Doc Rivers (2nd season)