Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat Prediction, Preview and Odds - 02/28/2025

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Friday, February 28, 2025

Venue:  Kaseya Center, Miami, FL

Where to Watch:  FDSSUN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Pacers -3, Heat +3; Over/Under:  226.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Pacers -3, Heat +3; Over/Under:  226.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Pacers -3, Heat +3; Over/Under:  226.5 points

Indiana Pacers:  33-24 (2nd place, Central Division)

Miami Heat:  27-30 (2nd place, Southeast Division)

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Indiana Pacers:  6-4 last 10

Miami Heat:  3-7 last 10

The Pacers are entering this game with a 33-24 record overall this season and they are 15-14 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Toronto Raptors. Tyrese Haliburton led the team in points in that game with 33 while Myles Turner was next on the team with 18 points. Tyrese Haliburton led the team in assists in that game with 11 while Myles Turner led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 53.1% from the field, 41.7% from 3-point range, and 62.5% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 116.4 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 115.2 PPG against them. The Pacers have an ATS record of 28-28-1 this season and their O/U record is 30-25-2.

The Heat are entering this game with a 27-30 record overall this season and they are 13-11 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Atlanta Hawks. Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson each led the team in points in that game with 24 while Bam Adebayo and Davion Mitchell each were next on the team with 20 points. Tyler Herro led the team in assists in that game with 10 while Bam Adebayo led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 59.2% from the field, 54.8% from 3-point range, and 81.8% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 110 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 110.6 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 23-33-1 this season and their O/U record is 31-26.

The current betting odds have the Pacers listed as a 3 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Pacers have looked good in their games this season with their 33-24 record overall which has them in the top half of the East and in a playoff spot. They haven't been a great road team this year, but they have still been good with their 15-14 road record. Meanwhile, the Heat haven't looked great in their games this season with their 27-30 record overall which has them right in the middle of the East and in a play-in spot. They have looked better on their home court this season with their 13-11 home record, but they haven't looked good lately as they have been struggling since trading away Jimmy Butler. The Heat are coming off a win over the Hawks in their last one, but the Hawks aren't a great team as they are lower in the standings and the Heat are only 3-7 in their last 10 games too. The Pacers have been getting hot lately though, going 6-4 in their last 10 games, and they bounced back from a loss with a big win over the Raptors in their last one. The Pacers have looked much better in the 2nd half of the season as they were stuck in neutral for a lot of the year, but now they are healthy with all their key players back in the lineup and they are starting to get back to that team that made such a deep run in the playoffs last season. The Heat are clearly a weaker team since the Butler trade and the Pacers can take advantage of their struggles lately. The best way to place a bet here is on the Pacers to cover the spread in this game. 

Pacers Heat Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Friday, February 28, 2025 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Pacers 124 Heat 114.

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Indiana Pacers: 11-6 ATS after allowing 100 points or less. 18-8 ATS after playing 3 consecutive home games. 8-4 UNDER off a home blowout win by 20 points or more. 30-18 UNDER on the road when playing against a team with a losing record.

Miami Heat: 21-33 ATS against Central division opponents. 9-21 ATS as a home underdog. 5-9 ATS off a home win against a division rival. 30-23 UNDER revenging a home loss vs opponent. 20-12 UNDER in February games.

Indiana Pacers:  T. McConnell (PG) Day To Day - Ankle. I. Jackson (C) Out For Season - Calf.

Miami Heat:  N. Jovic (PF) Out - Hand. D. Smith Out For Season - Achilles.

"I’ve said this many times this year, it's become a hard-play league, and not just a skill and talent league. It brings the competitive quotient of everything up. And Toronto in particular is a team that plays exceedingly hard. There are five teams that I think really separate themselves with hard play. I think we're one of them [and] Toronto is one of those teams. We've had a lot of trouble with Toronto this year, and it wasn't much fun last year either." - Rick Carlisle after his team’s win against the Raptors in their game on Wednesday.

“Who knows what the right decisions are with this team. That’s just the reality. I can’t claim that I’m making the right decisions.” - Erik Spoelstra on his team’s starting rotation after their win against the Hawks on Wednesday.

PG Tyrese Haliburton

SG Andrew Nembhard

SF Aaron Nesmith

PF Pascal Siakam

C Myles Turner

PG Tyler Herro

SG Davion Mitchell

SF Andrew Wiggins

PF Bam Adebayo

C Kel'el Ware

PPG: P. Siakam (20.3)

APG: T. Haliburton (8.7)

Reb/G: P. Siakam (7.3)

PPG: T. Herro (24)

APG: T. Herro (5.7)

Reb/G: B. Adebayo (10)

Coaches:

Indiana Pacers: Rick Carlisle (4th season)

Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (17th season)