Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/04/2025

Game Time: 6:00 pm ET, Sunday, May 4, 2025

Venue:  Rocket Arena, Cleveland, OH

Where to Watch:  TNT, MAX, truTV

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Pacers +8, Cavaliers -8; Over/Under:  229 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Pacers +8, Cavaliers -8; Over/Under:  229.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Pacers +8.5, Cavaliers -8.5; Over/Under:  229.5 points

Indiana Pacers:  50-32 (2nd place, Central Division)

Cleveland Cavaliers:  64-18 (1st place, Central Division)

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Indiana Pacers:  8-2 last 10

Cleveland Cavaliers:  7-3 last 10

The Pacers are entering the playoffs with a 50-32 record overall this season and they were 20-20 in their road games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game winning streak with wins coming against the Milwaukee Bucks twice in a row. Tyrese Haliburton led the team in points in that game with 26 while Myles Turner was next on the team with 21 points. Tyrese Haliburton led the team in assists in that game with 9 while Aaron Nesmith led the team in rebounds with 12. They were 46.2% from the field, 36.4% from 3-point range, and 75% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 117.4 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 115.1 PPG against them. The Pacers have an ATS record of 39-45-3 this season and their O/U record is 46-39-2.

The Cavaliers are entering the playoffs with a 64-18 record overall this season and they were 34-7 in their home games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 4 game winning streak with wins coming against the Miami Heat 4 times in a row. Donovan Mitchell led the team in points in that game with 22 while De'Andre Hunter was next on the team with 19 points. Donovan Mitchell and Ty Jerome each led the team in assists in that game with 5 while Jarrett Allen led the team in rebounds with 12. They were 54.7% from the field, 46.8% from 3-point range, and 88% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 121.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 112.4 PPG against them. The Cavaliers have an ATS record of 51-34-1 this season and their O/U record is 54-32.

The current betting odds have the Pacers listed as an 8 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 1 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Cavaliers and the 4th seeded Pacers from the Eastern Conference for the 2nd round of the NBA playoffs. Both of these teams looked great in their last series and both have had some rest coming into this one. The Cavaliers are coming off a sweep in the last round over the Heat while the Pacers beat the Bucks in 5 games. The Pacers did drop a game in that series, but they were also playing against a much tougher opponent than the Cavs. The Pacers still won that series in 5 games too and they looked like the better team in most of those games. Now they have some rest on their side along with that momentum and they did give the Cavaliers some trouble in those final games of the regular season. The Cavaliers made easy work of the Heat in the 1st round and even won the last 2 games in that series on the road by over 30 points each. They were also playing against a much weaker Heat team that did have a losing record, going 37-45 this season, and they only made it into the playoffs through the play-in tournament which they didn't really deserve to win and make the playoffs but they benefited from a very weak bottom of the East. The Cavaliers looked great in that series, but they are getting a big step up in competition here so they aren't going to just breeze by the Pacers with the way the Pacers looked in the last round. The Cavaliers should still win this 1st game at home, but it definitely won't be in a blowout as the Pacers will keep this one tight. The best way to place a bet here is on the Pacers to cover the spread in this game. 

Pacers Cavaliers Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Sunday, May 4, 2025 (6:00 pm ET start time) is Cavaliers 128 Pacers 124.

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Indiana Pacers: 16-29 ATS after a win by 6 points or less. 2-10 ATS on the road off a win against a division rival. 1-6 ATS on the road off a home win against a division rival. 23-10 OVER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%). 

Cleveland Cavaliers: 11-6 ATS off a road blowout win by 20 points or more. 26-15 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent. 74-45 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% of their attempts or more. 25-13 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%).

Indiana Pacers:  I. Jackson (C) Out For Season - Calf.

Cleveland Cavaliers:  D. Garland (PG) Day To Day - Toe.

“This one will go down as one of the all-time great Pacers wins because of the circumstances, because of what was on the line. Ty, obviously, authored a big part of this ending. So congratulations to him.” - Rick Carlisle after his team’s win against the Bucks in game 5 of that series on Tuesday.

“We came down here with the right mentality and again, our maturity, our leadership, all that stuff we've been talking about all year. We don't seem to have letdowns. That's rare.” - Kenny Atkinson after his team’s win against the Heat in game 4 of that series on Monday.

PG Tyrese Haliburton

SG Andrew Nembhard

SF Aaron Nesmith

PF Pascal Siakam

C Myles Turner

PG Darius Garland

SG Donovan Mitchell

SF Max Strus

PF Evan Mobley

C Jarrett Allen

PPG: P. Siakam (20.2)

APG: T. Haliburton (9.2)

Reb/G: P. Siakam (6.9)

PPG: D. Mitchell (24)

APG: D. Garland (6.7)

Reb/G: J. Allen (9.7)

Coaches:

Indiana Pacers: Rick Carlisle (4th season)

Cleveland Cavaliers: Kenny Atkinson (1st season)