by Rod Pearson
Monday, Nov 03, 2025
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, November 8, 2025
Venue: West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Indiana -15.5, PSU +15.5; Over/Under: 49.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Indiana -15.5, PSU +15.5; Over/Under: 49.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Indiana -15.5, PSU +15.5; Over/Under: 49.5 points
Season Record
Indiana Hoosiers: 9-0 (6-0) (1st place, Big Ten)
Penn State Nittany Lions: 3-5 (0-5) (15th place, Big Ten)
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Recent Form
Indiana Hoosiers: won their last game on the road against the Maryland Terrapins 55-10.
Penn State Nittany Lions: lost their last game on the road against the Ohio State Buckeyes 38-14.
Indiana Hoosiers vs Penn State Nittany Lions Preview and Analysis
Indiana is entering this game with a 9-0 record overall and they have a 6-0 record in their conference games too. They are 6-0 in their home games, 3-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Maryland 55-10. Fernando Mendoza was the starting QB and he completed 14/21 passes for 201 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Kaelon Black led the team in rushing yards with 110 and 1 TD. Omar Cooper Jr. led the receivers with 86 receiving yards on 7 receptions and 1 TD. Rolijah Hardy led the defense in that game with 3 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. Louis Moore and Kaiden Turner each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
Penn State is entering this game with a 3-5 record overall and they have a 0-5 record in their conference games too. They are 3-2 in their home games, 0-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Ohio State 38-14. Ethan Grunkemeyer was the starting QB and he completed 19/28 passes for 145 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Kaytron Allen led the team in rushing yards with 76 and 1 TD. Nick Singleton led the receivers with 28 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Zakee Wheatley led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Indiana vs Penn State Prediction
The current betting odds have Indiana listed as a 15.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Indiana has looked great in their games this season with their 9-0 record overall and their 6-0 conference record which has them right at the top of the Big Ten. They have been a good road team too with their 3-0 road record this season and they have been crushing opponents in their games all year. They are off a 55-10 win over Maryland in their last one and that has been a common theme for them all season. Meanwhile, Penn State has looked terrible in their games this season with their 3-5 record overall and their 0-5 conference record which has them right near the bottom of the Big Ten. They have looked better on their home field this year with their 3-2 home record, but this is also a team that was ranked inside the top 5 in the nation entering the season. They have fallen off a lot, even firing their head coach after a string of bad losses, and now they are off a 38-14 loss to Ohio State in their last one. They were in that game at the start, but Ohio State blew the game open in the 2nd half and this is also a Penn State team that lost their starting QB for the year. Indiana has been running up the score on many opponents this season, still trying to prove that they are on the same level as Ohio State, and they won't hold anything back in this game since Ohio State just played Penn State last week and Indiana now has a chance to embarrass Penn State with an even worse loss in their own house. The best way to place a bet here is on Indiana to cover the spread in this game.
Indiana Penn State Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 8, 2025 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Indiana 45 Penn State 14.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Indiana Hoosiers: 22-12 ATS in all lined games. 16-8 ATS against conference opponents. 12-3 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game. 23-11 OVER in all lined games. 16-6 OVER as a favorite. 17-7 OVER against conference opponents.
Penn State Nittany Lions: 1-5 ATS as an underdog. 3-8 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. 3-9 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%). 10-3 OVER when the total is between 49.5 and 56.
Key Injuries
Indiana Hoosiers: E. Sarratt (WR) Questionable - Hamstring. B. Franke (K) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Evans (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Fisher (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Wyatt (DL) Out - Undisclosed. B. Bonds (CB) Out - Undisclosed. L. Beebe Jr. (RB) Out - Leg. T. Morris (WR) Out - Knee.
Penn State Nittany Lions: T. Hayes (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. O. Wafle (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Pryts (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Mears (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Mayer (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Saunders (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Jackson (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. P. Gonzalez (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Nastasi (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. L. Horan (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. O'Hara (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Artis (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Robinson (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Granville (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Brown (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Smolik (QB) Questionable - Arm. D. Allar (QB) Out - Undisclosed. T. Rojas (LB) Out - Undisclosed.
Notable Quotes
“The defense has all year long risen to the occasion when their backs are against the wall. It wasn't perfect tonight defensively, trust me. Open-field tackling wasn't very good, they had some explosive plays. But there's a lot of good things that are on tape.” - Curt Cignetti after his team’s win against Maryland in their last game.
“We scored two touchdowns in the red zone against a team that’s No. 1 in the country in that area, then we came out in the second half, and the third quarter set the tone for them. They got 14 points and we just never could respond.” - Terry Smith after his team’s loss against Ohio State in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Indiana Hoosiers
WR Sarratt, Elijah
WR Williams Jr., E.J.
WR Cooper Jr., Omar
TE Nowakowski, Riley
QB Mendoza, Fernando
RB Hemby, Roman
Penn State Nittany Lions
WR Hudson, Kyron
WR Ross, Devonte
WR Peña, Trebor
TE Dinkins, Khalil
QB Grunkemeyer, Ethan
RB Allen, Kaytron
Statistical Leaders
Indiana Hoosiers
Passing: Fernando Mendoza (2,124)
Rushing: Kaelon Black (619)
Receiving: Omar Cooper Jr. (669)
Touchdowns: Elijah Sarratt (10)
Penn State Nittany Lions
Passing: Drew Allar (1,100)
Rushing: Kaytron Allen (688)
Receiving: Devonte Ross (281)
Touchdowns: Kaytron Allen (10)
Coaches:
Indiana Hoosiers: Curt Cignetti (2nd season)
Penn State Nittany Lions: Terry Smith (Interim)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
