Indiana Hoosiers vs. Maryland Terrapins Picks and Game Preview -- 10/30/2021

by Chuck Sommers

Game time: Noon ET, October 30, 2021
Venue: Maryland Stadium, College Park, MD
Where to watch: TBD

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Maryland -5; O/U 50; Maryland -220, Indiana +180
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: Maryland -5; O/U 50.5; Maryland -210, Indiana +175

Season record
Indiana: 2-5 (0-4 Big Ten)
Maryland: 4-3 (1-3 Big Ten)

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Indiana - Maryland preview and analysis


Last week
Indiana: lost 54-7 vs. No. 5 Ohio State on Oct. 23
Maryland: lost 34-16 at Minnesota on Oct. 23

A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away -- quite literally two months ago -- this was supposed to be an underrated matchup of two favorites in the Big Ten.

Not that the world expected the Indiana Hoosiers or Maryland Terrapins to actually be in contention by October, but there was the underlying hope of them actually challenging the likes of the Ohio State Buckeyes or *squints hard to confirm* the Michigan Wolverines or Michigan State Spartans.

One of these programs have underperformed and are now dealing with injuries, while the other is on a three-game slide with a talented offense that should not be this inconsistent. It all comes to ahead on Saturday in College Park when the Hoosiers fight with their season on the line.

The Terps have fallen hard since their 4-0 start. Albeit the opening opponents weren’t the greatest, but the offense was expected to take that next leap under quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa. Instead, Maryland has become the kid that’s entered middle school and gets his lunch money taken every day.

Maryland’s 18-point loss to the Minnesota Golden Gophers last week wasn’t just extending its losing streak to three games; it was the third straight by at least three scores. They lost 51-14 to the Iowa Hawkeyes, which now looks worse of a loss after they were upset by Purdue, and by seven touchdowns to the No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes.

Tagovailoa was held to 189 yards and a touchdown at Minnesota and didn’t throw any interceptions, but the rushing attack was held to only 79 yards on 23 carries. Maryland’s defense, meanwhile, has plenty of holes that’s being held up by corks. The Gophers ran for 326 yards and four touchdowns in a game that was essentially over by halftime.

The Hoosiers haven’t been able to build off last season’s strong shortened run, but injuries to quarterback Michael Penix Jr. have not helped the cause. Indiana has combined to score 22 points over the last three games and were held to seven against the Buckeyes last week.

Between three quarterbacks, Jack Tuttle threw for 41 yards and a touchdown on 4 of 7. But he too is now out week to week, along with Penix, so you or I could play quarterback for Indiana this weekend. It could be Donaven McCulley or Grant Gremel getting the start as the second half of conference play gets underway.

Prediction


Even though Indiana is going to be down to its third-string quarterback, that doesn’t stop the sportsbook from believing they can hang tight in this one. I’d expect the line to fluctuate as the week progresses, but we’re about to find out that road games aren’t Indiana’s best friend. If Maryland loses this week, the program needs to just take a break. Terps in a comfortable win as the Indiana defense just crumbles. Maryland by 21

Betting trends


Indiana is 1-6 against the spread this season.

The over is 45-21 in Indiana’s last 66 when it’s an underdog between 3.5 and 10.

Maryland is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 home games.

Maryland is 1-5 ATS in the last three seasons following consecutive losses to conference opponents by 31 points or more.

Statistical leaders


Indiana:
Passing: Michael Penix Jr. -- 939 yards, 4 TD, 7 INT
Rushing: Stephen Carr -- 452 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Ty Fryfogle -- 367 yards, 1 TD

Maryland:
Passing: Taulia Tagovailoa -- 1,965 yards, 15 TD, 8 INT
Rushing: Tayon Fleet-Davis -- 359 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: Dontay Demus Jr. -- 507 yards, 3 TD

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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