Illinois Fighting Illini vs Purdue Boilermakers Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/30/2023

Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, September 30, 2023

Venue:  Ross–Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN 

Where to Watch:  Peacock

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Illinois +1, Purdue -1; Over/Under:  53.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Illinois +1, Purdue -1; Over/Under:  53.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Illinois +1, Purdue -1; Over/Under:  53.5 points

Illinois Fighting Illini:  2-2 (0-1) (5th place, Big Ten West)

Purdue Boilermakers:  1-3 (0-1) (7th place, Big Ten West)

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Illinois Fighting Illini:  won their last game at home against the Florida Atlantic Owls 23-17.

Purdue Boilermakers:  lost their last game at home against the Wisconsin Badgers 38-17.

Illinois is entering this game with a 2-2 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their conference games too. They are 2-1 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against FAU 23-17. Luke Altmyer was the starting QB and he completed 28/49 passes for 256 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Larry McCammon III led the team in rushing yards with 89. LaJohntay Wester led the receivers with 137 receiving yards on 13 receptions and 1 TD. Jarron Morris and Darius McClendon each led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while Marlon Bradley led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.

 

 

 

Purdue is entering this game with a 1-3 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their conference games too. They are 0-3 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Wisconsin 38-17. Hudson Card was the starting QB and he completed 21/38 passes for 202 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Tyrone Tracy Jr. led the team in rushing yards with 84 and 1 TD. Deion Burks led the receivers with 73 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Kydran Jenkins led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while OC Brothers led the defense in sacks with 1. Botros Alisandro came away with the only interception for them in that game.

The current betting odds have Illinois listed as a 1 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Illinois is 2-2 this season and they haven't looked great in their games but they have also had a tougher schedule with their 2 losses coming against Kansas and Penn State. They just pulled off a tight win against FAU in their last game and go on the road to play Purdue now, but Purdue has been terrible this year with their 1-3 record overall. They have lost all 3 of their home games too and Illinois started to look a lot better on defense last week. Purdue has been struggling on offense lately against much weaker defenses so Illinois is going to shut them down knowing they can get a much needed conference win here. Illinois also has the better offense as they haven't really struggled to score in their games this year and they have definitely been putting up points against the weaker defenses they have faced. The best way to place a bet here is on Illinois to cover the spread in this game. 

Illinois Purdue Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 30, 2023 (3:30 pm ET start time) is Illinois 27 Purdue 16.

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Illinois Fighting Illini: 8-3 ATS in road games. 15-6 ATS off 3 or more consecutive unders. 17-9 ATS off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite. 19-8 UNDER in all games. 16-8 UNDER as a road favorite. 13-4 UNDER off 1 or more consecutive unders.

Purdue Boilermakers: 4-11 ATS in home games. 24-33 ATS in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56. 12-4 UNDER off 2 consecutive home losses. 26-14 UNDER after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games. 10-5 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread.

Illinois Fighting Illini:  R. Love III (RB) Prob Sat - Ankle. T. Strain (DB) Prob Sat - Ankle. M. Bailey (DB) out for season - Shoulder. D. Hill (DB) out for season - Knee. M. Hood (LB) out for season - Achilles. J. Anderson (RB) out for season - Knee.

Purdue Boilermakers:  A. Sowinski (WR) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. D. Lewis (DL) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. B. Freehill (K) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. D. Johnson (OL) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. S. Turner-Muhammad (DB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. P. Piferi (TE) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. J. Edrine (WR) out for season - Knee.

“I called Luke at 8’clock last Saturday night. I didn’t want him to go to bed worrying if he was still our starting quarterback. I wanted to let him know I was still behind him and we would come up with a game plan for him to be successful. Then the team picked him up during the week.” - Bret Bielema after his team’s win against FAU in their last game.

“There’s a lot of different things that contributed to this loss, so it’s frustrating. We’re not playing complimentary football right now.” - Ryan Walters after his team’s loss against Wisconsin in their last game. 

WR Washington, Casey 

WR Bryant, Pat 

WR Williams, Isaiah 

TE Reiman, Tip 

QB Altmyer, Luke 

RB Love III, Reggie 

WR Burks, Deion 

WR Yaseen, Abdur-Rahmaan 

WR Sheffield, TJ 

TE Miller, Garrett 

QB Card, Hudson 

RB Mockobee, Devin 

Passing: L. Altmyer (879)

Rushing: R. Love III (243)

Receiving: I. Williams (333)

Touchdowns: L. Altmyer (3)

Passing: H. Card (1027)

Rushing: D. Mockobee (212)

Receiving: D. Burks (294)

Touchdowns: T. Tracy Jr. (4)

Coaches:

Illinois Fighting Illini: Bret Bielema (3rd season)

Purdue Boilermakers: Ryan Walters (1st season)