by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Tuesday, Sep 21, 2021
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, September 25, 2021
Venue: Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN
Where to Watch: Big Ten Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Illinois +11, Purdue -11; Over/Under: 55.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Illinois +11, Purdue -11; Over/Under: 55.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Illinois +11, Purdue -11; Over/Under: 55 points
Season Record
Illinois Fighting Illini: 1-3 (2nd place, Big Ten West)
Purdue Boilermakers: 2-1 (3rd place, Big Ten West)
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Illinois Fighting Illini vs Purdue Boilermakers Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
Illinois Fighting Illini: lost at home on Sep. 17 against Maryland 20-17.
Purdue Boilermakers: lost on the road on Sep. 18 against Notre Dame 27-13.
Illinois Fighting Illini Analysis
Illinois is coming into this game with a 1-3 record overall and is 0-1 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are 1-1 in their conference games this season and this will be another one on the schedule for them. Their win came in their season opener against the Nebraska Cornhuskers but they have lost 3 games straight since then, losing to the UTSA Roadrunners, Virginia Cavaliers, and the Maryland Terrapins in their last game. Brandon Peters struggled in that game as he completed 10/26 passes for 185 yards and 1 interception. They did not have a good run game in that one as Josh McCray led the team in rushing with 60 yards and 1 touchdown on 8 carries. The receiving corps also had a quiet day as Chase Brown led the team in receiving with 54 yards on 2 receptions. Jake Hansen led the defense with 11 solo tackles and 1 assisted one along with 1 sack in the game as well. Owen Carney Jr. and Jer'Zhan Newton both recorded 1 sack each as well but no one on the defense came away with an interception in that game. In the Illinois games, they have scored 91 points in their first 4 games and they have allowed their opponents to score 121 points against them. Their offense is averaging 352.5 YPG while their defense is allowing 481.5 YPG.
Purdue Boilermakers Analysis
Purdue is coming into this college football game with a 2-1 record overall and is 1-0 in their home games where they will be in this one. This will be their first conference game of the regular season and they will have no more non-conference games for this year. Their 2 wins came against the Oregon State Beavers in their first game and the UConn Huskies while their loss came against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in their last game. Jack Plummer had a decent game in that one as he completed 25/36 passes for 187 yards and 1 touchdown. Aidan O'Connell also got some snaps at the quarterback position in that game and he struggled a lot completing 11/18 passes for 104 yards and 2 interceptions. They did not have a good run game in that one as King Doerue led the team in rushing with 45 yards on 10 carries. Jackson Anthrop led the team in receiving with 90 yards on 7 receptions while David Bell also had 7 receptions for 64 yards. Cam Allen led the defense with 7 solo tackles and 2 assisted ones. Jaylan Alexander, DaMarcus Mitchell, and Lawrence Johnson all recorded 1 sack each in the game but no one on the defense had an interception in that one. They have scored 92 points in their first 3 games and they have allowed their opponents to score 48 points against them. The Purdue offense is averaging 437 YPG while their defense is allowing 309.7 YPG.
Illinois vs Purdue Prediction
Illinois have not looked that great since their win in their first game of the season. They put up a good fight against Maryland last week in their conference game only losing by 3 points but that game was at home for them. Now they will be playing a conference game on the road and they got smashed in their 1 road game this year. Purdue is undefeated at home and will likely keep that streak going here as they are the much better team. This one will get away from Illinois quickly with the way their offense performs and if they get down by too much they will not be able to make a comeback. Purdue will win this game and cover the spread here, that is the best bet to make.
Illinois Purdue Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 25, 2021 (3:30 pm ET start time) is Purdue 31 Illinois 10.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Illinois Fighting Illini: 11-8 ATS as an underdog. 12-7 ATS against conference opponents.
Purdue Boilermakers: 0-2 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. 4-7 ATS as a favorite.
Key Injuries
Illinois Fighting Illini: M. Beason (WR) Ques Sat - Hamstring injury. T. Leitzsey (DB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury. M. Epstein (RB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury.
Purdue Boilermakers: D. Bell (WR) Ques Sat - Concussion injury. C. Trice (CB) Out indefinitely - Ankle injury. D. Washington (OL) Out indefinitely - Toe injury.
Players to Watch
Illinois Fighting Illini: Isaiah Williams is one of the starters to watch in this game. He leads his team in receiving yards and will need to make some big catches as his team is a big underdog in this game. Look for him to get involved for some big plays down field.
Purdue Boilermakers: David Bell is one player to watch in this game. He leads his team in receiving yards and in touchdowns scored. He will be a big part of this offense if they win this game so look for him to get a lot of balls thrown his way here.
Notable Quotes
“For us to be successful here at Illinois we need to build on Illinois high school players.” - Bret Bielema on building up the success of the Illinois program.
"I thought we did a good job in the first half, kept them in check, got to the quarterback. The second half, they made some adjustments and we gave up some big plays." - Jeff Brohm on the way his team played in their loss to Notre Dame.
Starting Lineups
Illinois Fighting Illini
WR Navarro III, Donny
WR Williams, Isaiah
TE Barker, Daniel
TE Ford, Luke
QB Peters, Brandon
RB Epstein, Mike
Purdue Boilermakers
WR Sheffield, TJ
WR Wright, Milton
WR Bell, David
TE Durham, Payne
QB Plummer, Jack
RB Horvath, Zander
Statistical Leaders
Illinois Fighting Illini
Passing: A. Sitkowski (611)
Rushing: C. Brown (122)
Receiving: I. Williams (230)
Touchdowns: D. Spann (2)
Sacks: K. Randolph Jr. (2)
Tackles: D. Witherspoon (24)
Purdue Boilermakers
Passing: J. Plummer (745)
Rushing: K. Doerue (126)
Receiving: D. Bell (319)
Touchdowns: D. Bell (3)
Sacks: J. Alexander (1)
Tackles: C. Allen (13)
Coaches:
Illinois Fighting Illini: Bret Bielema (1st season)
Purdue Boilermakers: Jeff Brohm (5th season)
Weather Forecast
70 degrees F partly cloudy, 61% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 11 mph wind speeds W.
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
