Illinois Fighting Illini vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 02/07/2026

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Saturday, February 7, 2026

Venue:  Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI

Where to Watch:  FOX

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Illinois +1.5, MSU -1.5; Over/Under:  145.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Illinois +1.5, MSU -1.5; Over/Under:  145.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Illinois +1.5, MSU -1.5; Over/Under:  145.5 points

Illinois Fighting Illini:  20-3 (11-1) (2nd place, Big Ten)

Michigan State Spartans:  19-4 (9-3) (4th place, Big Ten)

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Illinois Fighting Illini:  5-0  last 5

Michigan State Spartans:  3-2  last 5

Illinois is entering this game with a 20-3 record overall, an 11-1 record in conference games, and they are 6-0 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Northwestern Wildcats in their last game. Andrej Stojaković led the team in points in that game with 17 while Keaton Wagler, Ben Humrichous, and Zvonimir Ivisic each were next on the team with 13. Tomislav Ivišić and Keaton Wagler each led the team in assists with 5 in that game while Tomislav Ivišić led the team in rebounds with 12. They were 48.3% from the field, 44.7% from 3-point range, and 78.6% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 84.6 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 67.2 PPG against them. Illinois has an ATS record of 15-8 this season and their O/U record is 8-15.

Michigan State is entering this game with a 19-4 record overall, a 9-3 conference record, and they are 11-2 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a loss against the Minnesota Golden Gophers in their last game. Coen Carr led the team in points in that game with 16 while Jordan Scott was next on the team with 15. Jeremy Fears Jr. led the team in assists with 11 in that game while Jaxon Kohler led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 44.8% from the field, 37.5% from 3-point range, and 70.6% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 78.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 64.9 PPG against them. Michigan State has an ATS record of 10-11-2 this season and their O/U record is 8-15.

The current betting odds have Michigan State listed as a 1.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Michigan State has looked really good in their games this season with their 19-4 record overall and their 9-3 conference record which has them right near the top of the Big Ten. They have looked great on their home court too with their 11-2 home record this season. Meanwhile, Illinois has looked really good in their games this season with their 20-3 record overall and their 11-1 conference record which has them right near the top of the Big Ten. The only conference loss that Illinois has this season is to Nebraska in a really tight game, but Illinois has been rolling lately with 12 wins in a row now. They are starting to look like one of the best teams in the nation with the way they are rolling and they are shaping up to be a contender in the Big Ten too. They have a ton of momentum on their side right now, but their performance has only made the target on their back much bigger, and this is a Michigan State team in desperate need of a statement win. Michigan State was rolling to start the conference schedule, but they have lost 2 games in a row now and will be looking to bounce back. They lost a hard fought battle with their rival Michigan who looks like one of the best teams in the nation, but now they are off an upset loss to Minnesota in their last one. Michigan State badly needs a get right game after 2 losses in a row and they have looked a lot better at home all year. This would be a big win for them after losing to Michigan too, and these are the games they need to win at home against other ranked opponents. Look for Michigan State to throw everything they have at Illinois to bounce back in this one and edge them out. The best way to place a bet here is on Michigan State to cover the spread in this game. 

Illinois Michigan State Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Saturday, February 7, 2026 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Michigan State 84 Illinois 80.

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Illinois Fighting Illini: 9-1 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3. 23-9 ATS after a win by 15 points or more. 27-19 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game. 14-7 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3. 

Michigan State Spartans: 3-6 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game. 3-7 1H ATS off a road loss. 20-29 1H ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game. 31-14 UNDER as a home favorite or pick. 18-7 UNDER in a home game where the total is 140 to 149.5.

Illinois Fighting Illini:  J. Jakstys (C) Out - Undisclosed. K. Boswell (G) Out - Hand. T. Rodgers (G-F) Questionable - Knee.

Michigan State Spartans:  D. Ugochukwu (G) Questionable - Foot. K. Glenn (F) Out - Knee.

"Patience. That was probably the most challenging after the Nebraska game here. They torched us. They shot (56%) from two. That's when I knew we had to commit to it, and I had to buy into it. I had to stop barking every time somebody gave up a three and they made it, and just understand that for the long term this is what we've got to be good at." - Brad Underwood on his team this season. 

"Well when somebody comes out and publicly says something about a guy that sometimes happens, but that's Jeremy's fault. And I made sure I cleared all of that up. I think the officials knew it, I talked to them. I did not see what happened in the play. I saw him get pushed and I saw his leg come up, and I didn't think he hit anybody, but if he did, he deserves it, I guess, but if he didn't, I question it. So are they baiting him? Of course, of course. When you go public with something, you should get baited. And it's his fault. And I make no bones about it, I sat him for a while, and, I don't know, I don't even know if I'm gonna start him in the next game." - Tom Izzo on Jeremy Fears after his team’s loss against Minnesota in their last game. 

K. Boswell 

T. Ivisic 

D. Mirkovic 

A. Stojakovic 

K. Wagler

C. Carr 

C. Cooper 

J. Fears 

J. Kohler 

D. Ugochukwu

PPG: Keaton Wagler (17.9)

APG: Keaton Wagler (4.3)

Reb/G: David Mirkovic (8.2)

PPG: Jeremy Fears Jr. (14.7)

APG: Jeremy Fears Jr. (8.9)

Reb/G: Jaxon Kohler (9.1)

Coaches:

Illinois Fighting Illini: Brad Underwood (9th season)

Michigan State Spartans: Tom Izzo (31st season)