Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Cincinnati Bearcats Prediction & Game Preview - 11/22/2021

by Chuck Sommers

Monday, Nov 22, 2021
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
Venue: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO
Where to watch: ESPNNEWS

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Illinois -10.5
BetMGM: Illinois -10.5
Caesars: NL

Season record
No. 10 Illinois: 2-1
Cincinnati: 4-0

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Illinois - Cincinnati preview and analysis


Recent form
Illinois: lost 67-66 at Marquette on Monday
Cincinnati: won 79-45 vs. Presbyterian on Thursday

After being upset by the Marquette Golden Eagles last Monday in the Gavitt Tipoff Games, the No. 10 Illinois Fighting Illini will look to bounce back against the Cincinnati Bearcats at the start of the Hall of Fame Classic in Kansas City on Monday.

The two teams are the first matchup in this tournament along with the Kansas State Wildcats and No. 16-ranked Arkansas Razorbacks. The winners and losers will face each other in the final games on Tuesday.

Illinois was moments away from not just starting 3-0, but having three wins without AP Preseason All-American center Kofi Cockburn in the fold. Cockburn was suspended three games for selling memorabilia before the NCAA passed regulations for student-athletes to profit off their likeness.

The 7-foot native from Jamaica will make his season debut.

Illinois had a 12-point lead in the second half, but 26 turnovers played a downfall in the Illini losing by one point to Marquette. The turnovers were the most in a game by Illinois in 21 years (Nov. 28, 2000 against the Duke Blue Devils.

"You're not going to win a basketball game on the road against a good basketball team turning the ball over 26 times, not really getting a good look the last five minutes because we didn't execute," Illinois coach Brad Underwood said.

Trent Frazier had a game-high 23 points, his 15th career 20-point game and the most he had since hitting 30 against the Minnesota Golden Gophers in January 2019.

When you look at the game from a broader lens, Illinois dominated and should’ve won this game. The Illini won the rebounding battle 50-30; made four more 3-pointers and had 13 assists. The problem was the Illini had only 11 free-throw attempts to Marquette shooting 31.

First year head coach Wes Miller is the third Bearcats coach to start his Cincy tenure at 4-0; one of those has come at the expense of occasional SEC powerhouse Georgia. The Bearcats are coming off a 26-point win over Presbyterian led by Jeremiah Davenport’s 16 points and three rebounds. Abdul Ado had five blocks, all in the second half, in what was a wire-to-wire win for the Bearcats predicated by defense.

Cincinnati hasn’t trailed in the second half all season and have only turned the ball over 37 times through the four games; the fewest in a four-game stretch since the 2015-16 season.

Prediction


Cockburn is going to make a difference. If the Illini could dominate the glass against Marquette without their big man, what can happen with him in the fold? Illinois already leads the nation in rebound margin at 21.3 and second in the nation in offensive rebound percentage. This is the first meeting between the opponents since Dec. 31, 2004 in Las Vegas when the Deron Williams-led Illini won by 22. Illinois has won three straight in the series, and I’d expect that number to roll to four. Illinois by 15

Betting trends


Illinois is 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss.

The over is 6-1 in Illinois’ last seven after a straight-up loss.

Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS in its past six after allowing less than 50 points in the last game.

Projected starting lineup


Illinois:
PG: Andre Curbelo
SG: Trent Frazier
SF:
Jacob Grandison
PF:
Coleman Hawkins
C:
Kofi Cockburn

Cincinnati:
PG: David DeJulius
SG: Mika Adams-Woods
SF:
John Newman III
PF:
Jeremiah Davenport
C:
Abdul Ado

Statistical leaders


Illinois:
Points: Jacob Grandison -- 15.0
Rebounds: Coleman Hawkins -- 9.3
Assists: Coleman Hawkins -- 2.7

Cincinnati:
Points: Jeremiah Davenport -- 12.5
Rebounds: Ody Oguama -- 5.0
Assists: Mika Adams-Woods -- 4.3

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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