by Al McMordie
Thursday, Apr 17, 2025The NBA's Play-In Tournament is ongoing. Golden State and Orlando have punched their tickets to the post-season, and will each be seeded #7 in their respective conference. Still to be decided are the #8 seeds. This Friday, Miami will visit Atlanta, while Dallas will travel to Memphis to take on the Grizzlies.
As of this writing, on Thursday morning, Atlanta has been installed as a 1-point favorite, with an Over/Under line of 220. And the Grizzlies are favored by 6.5 points, with an Over/Under line of 223.
This is the 5th season of the Play-In Tournament, so we're beginning to get some data under our belt.
One thing which has emerged is that the favorites have excelled in these games that decide the #8 seed, with a 7-1 ATS record. Here, Memphis is a clear favorite, while it's unclear which team will close as the favorite in the Atlanta/Miami game.
The other thing is that these games that decide the #8 seed tend to be relatively low-scoring, and have gone 6-2 under the total. I would expect that trend to continue, as NBA Playoff (or Play-In) games where BOTH teams stand to be eliminated with a loss have gone under the total 56.5% since 1990. Consider playing the unders in the Hawks/Heat and Grizzlies/Mavericks games.
Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie
As of this writing, on Thursday morning, Atlanta has been installed as a 1-point favorite, with an Over/Under line of 220. And the Grizzlies are favored by 6.5 points, with an Over/Under line of 223.
This is the 5th season of the Play-In Tournament, so we're beginning to get some data under our belt.
One thing which has emerged is that the favorites have excelled in these games that decide the #8 seed, with a 7-1 ATS record. Here, Memphis is a clear favorite, while it's unclear which team will close as the favorite in the Atlanta/Miami game.
The other thing is that these games that decide the #8 seed tend to be relatively low-scoring, and have gone 6-2 under the total. I would expect that trend to continue, as NBA Playoff (or Play-In) games where BOTH teams stand to be eliminated with a loss have gone under the total 56.5% since 1990. Consider playing the unders in the Hawks/Heat and Grizzlies/Mavericks games.
Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie
