by Rod Pearson
Wednesday, Oct 09, 2024
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, October 13, 2024
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Texans -7, Patriots +7; Over/Under: 38 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Texans -7, Patriots +7; Over/Under: 38 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Texans -7, Patriots +7; Over/Under: 38 points
Season Record
Houston Texans: 4-1 (1st place, AFC South)
New England Patriots: 1-4 (4th place, AFC East)
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Recent Form
Houston Texans: won their last game at home against the Buffalo Bills 23-20.
New England Patriots: lost their last game at home against the Miami Dolphins 15-10.
Houston Texans vs New England Patriots Preview and Analysis
The Texans are entering this game with a 4-1 record overall and they have a 2-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Buffalo Bills 23-20. C. J. Stroud was the starting QB and he completed 28/38 passes for 331 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Cam Akers led the team in rushing yards with 42 and 1 TD. Stefon Diggs led the receivers with 82 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Azeez Al-Shaair led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Khalil Davis led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Patriots are entering this game with a 1-4 record overall and they have a 0-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 0-2 in their home games, 1-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Miami Dolphins 15-10. Jacoby Brissett was the starting QB and he completed 18/34 passes for 160 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Rhamondre Stevenson led the team in rushing yards with 89 and 1 TD. Demario Douglas led the receivers with 59 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Dell Pettus and Jaylinn Hawkins each led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Jaquelin Roy and Joshua Uche each led the defense in sacks with 1. Christian Gonzalez came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Texans vs Patriots Prediction
The current betting odds have the Texans listed as a 7 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Texans have looked great in their games this season with their 4-1 record overall which leads the AFC South with the best record. They are coming off a win against the Bills in their last one and their defense looked a lot better in that one. Meanwhile, the Patriots have looked terrible in their games this season with their 1-4 record overall. They pulled off a shocking upset win over the Bengals in week 1, but they have lost 4 games in a row since then and their offense has looked terrible. They are coming off a loss at home against the Dolphins in their last one and the Dolphins have a ton of issues right now. The Patriots will be making the switch to Drake Maye as the starting QB in this one, but it isn't going to help them much. The offense doesn't have a ton of weapons and this is still a rookie QB getting his first NFL start against a good defense that looked a lot better last week. Maye is going to struggle to get into a groove in this game and the Texans will be able to pull away throughout the game. The best way to place a bet here is on the Texans to cover the spread in this game.
Texans Patriots Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, October 13, 2024 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Texans 28 Patriots 7.
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NFL Betting Trends
Houston Texans: 13-7 ATS after playing a game at home. 27-14 1H ATS in all games. 14-6 1H ATS in road games. 20-9 1H ATS against conference opponents. 25-15 UNDER in all games. 9-4 UNDER as a favorite. 13-6 UNDER after playing a game at home. 6-1 UNDER vs. poor passing teams averaging 175 or less passing yards/game.
New England Patriots: 14-23 ATS in all games. 5-12 ATS in home games. 8-17 ATS as an underdog. 3-8 ATS after a loss by 6 or less points. 8-3 UNDER after a loss by 6 or less points. 17-6 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses. 8-3 UNDER after scoring 14 points or less last game.
Key Injuries
Houston Texans: A. Al-Shaair (LB) Questionable - Illness. K. Hinish (DT) Out - Calf. T. Dell (WR) Injured - Chest. R. Woods (WR) Questionable - Foot. T. Howard (T) Questionable - Hamstring. B. Fisher (T) Injured - Illness. D. Barnett (DE) Out - Shoulder. J. Hansen (LB) Questionable - Back. D. Horton (DE) Questionable - Illness. J. Scruggs (OL) Injured - Hip. J. Hughes (DE) Out - Hip. L. Tunsil (T) Injured - Ankle. J. Ward (SAF) Injured - Groin. J. Mixon (RB) Out - Ankle. D. Pierce (RB) Questionable - Hamstring.
New England Patriots: J. Peppers (SAF) Out - Shoulder. M. Jones (CB) Questionable - Groin. K. Bourne (WR) Questionable - Knee. S. Takitaki (LB) Doubtful - Knee. K. Osborn (WR) Questionable - Shoulder. N. Leverett (G) Questionable - Ankle. K. Dugger (SAF) Questionable - Ankle. M. Mapu (SAF) Questionable - Calf. L. Robinson (G) Questionable - Ankle. J. Jones (CB) Questionable - Shoulder. M. Jordan (G) Questionable - Ankle. C. Wallace (T) Injured - Ankle. D. Andrews (C) Injured - Shoulder. A. Jennings (LB) Questionable - Shoulder. V. Lowe (T) Questionable - Knee. J. Bell (TE) Injured - Neck.
Notable Quotes
“It wasn’t all pretty. But it’s the way you finish at the end and I’m proud of the way our guys finished.” - DeMeco Ryans after his team’s win against the Bills in their last game.
“As the game wore on, our fundamentals began to slip. We preach all the time about pre-snap and post-snap penalties. It just wasn’t a good day.” - Jerod Mayo after his team’s loss against the Dolphins in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Houston Texans
WR Hutchinson, Xavier
WR Diggs, Stefon
WR Dell, Tank
TE Schultz, Dalton
QB Stroud, C.J.
RB Ogunbowale, Dare
New England Patriots
WR Polk, Ja'Lynn
WR Boutte, Kayshon
WR Douglas, DeMario
TE Henry, Hunter
QB Maye, Drake
RB Stevenson, Rhamondre
Statistical Leaders
Houston Texans
Passing: C. Stroud (1385)
Rushing: J. Mixon (184)
Receiving: N. Collins (567)
Touchdowns: S. Diggs (3)
New England Patriots
Passing: J. Brissett (696)
Rushing: R. Stevenson (356)
Receiving: H. Henry (180)
Touchdowns: R. Stevenson (3)
Coaches:
Houston Texans: DeMeco Ryans (2nd season)
New England Patriots: Jerod Mayo (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
