by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Jan 13, 2026
Game Time: 3:00 pm ET, Sunday, January 18, 2026
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Where to Watch: ESPN, ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Texans +3, Patriots -3; Over/Under: 40.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Texans +3, Patriots -3; Over/Under: 41 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Texans +3, Patriots -3; Over/Under: 41 points
Season Record
Houston Texans: 12-5 (2nd place, AFC South)
New England Patriots: 14-3 (1st place, AFC East)
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Recent Form
Houston Texans: won their last game on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-6.
New England Patriots: won their last game at home against the Los Angeles Chargers 16-3.
Houston Texans vs New England Patriots Preview and Analysis
The Texans are entering this game with a 12-5 record overall and they have a 5-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 7-2 in their home games, 5-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-6. C. J. Stroud was the starting QB and he completed 21/32 passes for 250 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Jo'quavious Marks led the team in rushing yards with 112 and 1 TD. Christian Kirk led the receivers with 144 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. Jalen Pitre led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Sheldon Rankins led the defense in sacks with 1.5. Calen Bullock came away with the only interception for them in that one.
The Patriots are entering this game with a 14-3 record overall and they have a 5-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 6-3 in their home games, 8-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Los Angeles Chargers 16-3. Drake Maye was the starting QB and he completed 17/29 passes for 268 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Drake Maye led the team in rushing yards with 66. Rhamondre Stevenson led the receivers with 75 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Marcus Jones led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while K'Lavon Chaisson and Milton Williams each led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Texans vs Patriots Prediction
The current betting odds have the Patriots listed as a 3 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Patriots have looked great in their games this season with their 14-3 record overall which had them right at the top of the AFC East with the best record in the entire NFL. They have looked good on their home field too with their 6-3 home record this year. Meanwhile, the Texans have looked really good in their games this season with their 12-5 record overall which had them right near the top of the AFC South. They have been a good road team too with their 5-3 road record this year. The Texans are off a 30-6 win over the Steelers on the road in the Wild Card Round and they have a ton of momentum on their side with 9 wins in a row now. They have been rolling in the back half of the season with one of the best defenses in the NFL, but they haven't had a great offense and they aren't the only team that has been rolling. The Patriots are off a 16-3 win over the Chargers in their last one and even in a game where they had a terrible start, they made easy work of the Chargers in the end. They have been blowing teams out all season with a really strong offense that can put up a ton of points. The Texans do have a great defense, but that defense was doing a lot of the heavy lifting against the Steelers. They won 30-6 in the end, but their offense couldn't do anything for 3 quarters and the Steelers were right in that game until the Texans defense took over. The Texans are going to need offense against this Patriots team though, and the Patriots defense has looked a lot better lately as they haven't been giving up many points over the last few weeks. Drake Maye has looked like one of the best QB's in the NFL this season and he is going to have a big impact in this game against that Texans defense while the Texans struggle to move the ball on offense. The best way to place a bet here is on the Patriots to cover the spread in this game.
Texans Patriots Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, January 18, 2026 (3:00 pm ET start time) is Patriots 24 Texans 13.
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NFL Betting Trends
Houston Texans: 10-2 ATS in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. 17-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. 8-4 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. 9-4 UNDER as a road underdog of 7 points or less.
New England Patriots: 4-10 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. 9-14 ATS in home games. 1-3 ATS at home versus good defensive teams - allowing 285 yards/game or less. 10-5 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3.
Key Injuries
Houston Texans: D. Autry (DL) Injured - Knee. S. Rankins (DL) Injured - Elbow. T. Brown (OT) Injured - Ankle. T. Howard (OT) Injured - Ankle. D. Stingley Jr. (CB) Injured - Oblique. J. Hill (LB) Injured - Calf. K. Lassiter (CB) Injured - Ankle. J. Jordan (RB) Out - Ankle. A. Brinkman (LS) Injured - Knee. J. Reed (S) Questionable - Forearm. A. Ersery (OT) Injured - Thumb. A. Carter (CB) Questionable - Hamstring.
New England Patriots: T. Henderson (RB) Injured - Personal. K. Boutte (WR) Questionable - Hamstring. H. Henry (TE) Injured - Rest. M. Moses (OT) Injured - Illness. J. Gibbens (LB) Injured - Elbow. A. Jennings (LB) Injured - Illness. H. Landry III (LB) Questionable - Knee. R. Spillane (LB) Injured - Ankle. K. Tonga (DL) Out - Foot. V. Lowe (OT) Injured - Illness. T. Munford Jr. (OT) Questionable - Knee. G. Bradbury (C) Injured - Illness. A. Austin (CB) Out - Wrist. J. Wilson (C) Injured - Concussion.
Notable Quotes
“It's all about moving forward and trying your best to flush it and keep going. Every time we had to bounce back, we made more plays.” - C.J. Stroud after their win against the Steelers in the Wild Card Round.
“The big dogs come out in January. I think Milt took that to heart. He came over and got me pretty good. But that’s what happens.” - Mike Vrabel after his team’s win against the LA Chargers in the Wild Card Round.
Starting Lineups
Houston Texans
WR Collins, Nico
WR Higgins, Jayden
WR Kirk, Christian
TE Schultz, Dalton
QB Stroud, C.J.
RB Marks, Woody
FB Brooks, British
New England Patriots
WR Boutte, Kayshon
WR Diggs, Stefon
WR Douglas, DeMario
TE Henry, Hunter
QB Maye, Drake
RB Stevenson, Rhamondre
FB Westover, Jack
Statistical Leaders
Houston Texans
Passing: C.J. Stroud (3,041)
Rushing: Woody Marks (703)
Receiving: Nico Collins (1,117)
Touchdowns: Nico Collins (7)
New England Patriots
Passing: Drake Maye (4,394)
Rushing: TreVeyon Henderson (911)
Receiving: Stefon Diggs (1,013)
Touchdowns: TreVeyon Henderson (10)
Coaches:
Houston Texans: DeMeco Ryans (3rd season)
New England Patriots: Mike Vrabel (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
