Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction, Picks, Preview & Odds -- 11/07/2021

by Chuck Sommers

Game time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
Where to watch: FOX

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings: Dolphins -6.5; O/U 46
BetMGM: Dolphins -6.5; O/U 46
Caesars: Dolphins -6.5; O/U 46

Season record
Texans: 1-7 (T-Last place, AFC South)
Dolphins: 1-7 (Last place, AFC East)

Sean Murphy nailed his AFC South Total of the Year last Sunday in a game featuring the same Colts that will host the Jets on Thursday Night Football! Don't even consider making a move on this primetime AFC showdown before checking in with Murph first. Catch Sean’s and other plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.

Texans - Dolphins preview and analysis

Last week
Texans: lost 38-22 vs. Rams
Dolphins: lost 26-11 at Bills

It’s a battle of seven-game losing streaks in Miami this week when the Houston Texans and Miami Dolphins clash for each other’s first win since Week 1 on Sunday.

The only way this matchup could’ve been any better is if the Dolphins pulled the trigger on a Deshaun Watson trade before the deadline on Tuesday. Football fans are nowhere near this gifted with storylines and hoopla of the such.

But man, how weird would it have been out of Miami Gardens this weekend if Tua Tagovailoa was wearing a Houston jersey, with Watson making his season and Dolphins debut against his former team? Of course the Dolphins pulled back due to the ongoing civil lawsuits against him, and rightfully so, but the fact that it was even in the news is some weird happenings.

No matter how you slice it, this is going to have major NFL Draft implications for the loser. It likely appears that the Detroit Lions continue to close in on the No. 1 pick, but in what’s expected to be a loaded quarterback class, perhaps QB is on the forefront for both of these teams. I can’t fully expect the Dolphins to fall into that category before firing coach Brian Flores but none of us would be surprised at all.

The Texans are coming off a 16-point loss to the Los Angeles Rams and nearly pulled off the backdoor cover in the fourth quarter before the Rams put that game top bed. Davis Mills actually had a strong second half for his small fantasy owners; 310 yards and two touchdowns for a 106.3 quarterback rating. And yet the Texans still lost by two scores.

Houston is now moving forward without Mark Ingram after trading him back to the New Orleans Saints. The bulk of the carries will go to David Johnson and perhaps Phillip Lindsay, but how much more can you win with that?

The Dolphins are at least in a position to win games now that Tagovailoa is back in the fold. Miami has just run into bad luck and tough opponents. Miami played hard at the Buffalo Bills before eventually losing by two scores to the Bills.

Tagovailoa threw for 205 yards and ran for a touchdown while dishing the ball to the likes of Devante Parker (8 receptions, 75 yards) and Jaylen Waddle (4 receptions). Mike Gesicki has also turned into a very good tight end option.

I will continue to die on the hill that the Dolphins’ offense is worth building around. How much longer the Dolphins can have that patience is another matter entirely.


Houston’s defense was torn up against Matthew Stafford and the vaunted Rams passing attack. If there’s a game for Miami to take advantage of that potential, it’s against the Texans. For as long as Davis Mills is the quarterback, nothing will go right for these guys. Dolphins by 17

Betting trends

The Texans are 1-3 ATS this season as a road dog and 6-10 over the past three seasons.

The Texans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 after having 99 rushing yards or less in consecutive games.

The Dolphins are 4-5 in their last nine as a favorite and 3-1 ATS in their last four as a home favorite.

Players to watch

Texans: The offense will continue to go through Brandin Cooks after the Texans chose to not trade him. Cooks had six catches for 83 yards and a touchdown last week.

Dolphins: Myles Gaskin needs to have a better game running the ball for the Dolphins to win this one. He had 55 yards forms scrimmage last week.

Statistical leaders

Passing: Davis Mills -- 1,357 yards, 7 TD, 8 INT
Rushing: David Johnson -- 108 yards
Receiving: Brandin Cooks -- 585 yards, 2 TD
Defense: Jonathan Greenard -- 7 sacks

Passing: Tua Tagovailoa -- 1,040 yards, 7 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Myles Gaskin -- 279 yards
Receiving: Jaylen Waddle -- 413 yards, 3 TD
Defense: Xavien Howard -- 2 INT

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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