Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, Preview and Odds - 12/07/2025

Game Time: 8:20 pm ET, Sunday, December 7, 2025

Venue:  GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Where to Watch:  NBC, Peacock

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Texans +3.5, Chiefs -3.5; Over/Under:  41.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Texans +3, Chiefs -3; Over/Under:  41.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Texans +3.5, Chiefs -3.5; Over/Under:  41.5 points

Houston Texans:  7-5 (3rd place, AFC South)

Kansas City Chiefs:  6-6 (3rd place, AFC West)

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Houston Texans:  won their last game on the road against the Indianapolis Colts 20-16.

Kansas City Chiefs:  lost their last game on the road against the Dallas Cowboys 31-28.

The Texans are entering this game with a 7-5 record overall and they have a 4-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 4-2 in their home games, 3-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Indianapolis Colts 20-16. C. J. Stroud was the starting QB and he completed 22/35 passes for 276 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Jo'quavious Marks led the team in rushing yards with 64. Nico Collins led the receivers with 98 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Azeez Al-Shaair led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Sheldon Rankins led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

The Chiefs are entering this game with a 6-6 record overall and they have a 1-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 5-1 in their home games, 1-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Dallas Cowboys 31-28. Patrick Mahomes was the starting QB and he completed 23/34 passes for 261 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Kareem Hunt led the team in rushing yards with 58. Rashee Rice led the receivers with 92 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 2 TDs. Nick Bolton led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. Jaylen Watson came away with the only interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have the Texans listed as a 3.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Texans have looked good in their games this season with their 7-5 record overall, but that record has them near the bottom of the AFC South in a competitive division. They haven't been a great road team either with their 3-3 road record this season. Meanwhile, the Chiefs haven't looked great in their games this season with their 6-6 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the AFC West. They have looked a lot better on their home field though with their 5-1 home record this year. The Chiefs are off a 31-28 loss to the Cowboys in their last one and they just haven't looked right this season. The offense has looked a lot better lately, but this defense isn't playing at the level that it has been over the last few years. The Chiefs have been struggling a lot lately and they aren't going to have it any easier against the best defense in the NFL here. The Texans had a terrible start to the season, but they have dug themselves out of that hole and they have one of the best defenses in the NFL to lean on. They are off a big road win over the Colts in their last one which is going to give them a ton of momentum, and they have been building a lot of momentum over the last few weeks as they continue to win games. Now Stroud is back in the lineup too and the Texans are getting hot at the right time while the Chiefs continue to flail. The Chiefs are going to struggle against that Texans defense and even when the Chiefs have been winning games lately, they haven't been blowing many teams out in their wins. The best way to place a bet here is on the Texans to cover the spread in this game. 

Texans Chiefs Prediction:  Our NFL Pick for Sunday, December 7, 2025 (8:20 pm ET start time) is Texans 20 Chiefs 17.

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Houston Texans: 7-2 ATS in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. 11-3 ATS after playing a division game. 8-3 ATS off a win against a division rival. 30-17 UNDER in all games. 6-1 UNDER vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season. 

Kansas City Chiefs: 7-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 2-5 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread. 2-5 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. 11-4 UNDER as a home favorite of 7 points or less. 5-0 UNDER off an upset loss as a road favorite.

Houston Texans:  J. Reed (S) Injured - Forearm. D. Autry (DL) Injured - Knee. T. Brown (OT) Injured - Hand. A. Al-Shaair (LB) Injured - Knee. W. Anderson Jr. (DL) Injured - Chest. J. Hill (LB) Injured - Hamstring. K. Lassiter (CB) Injured - Foot. W. Marks (RB) Injured - Ankle.

Kansas City Chiefs:  P. Mahomes (QB) Injured - Knee. J. Taylor (OT) Injured - Triceps. N. Gray (TE) Injured - Concussion. T. Smith (OG) Injured - Ankle. N. Remigio (WR) Injured - Shoulder. I. Pacheco (RB) Injured - Knee. B. Cook (S) Injured - Ankle. R. Rice (WR) Injured - Hamstring. G. Karlaftis (DL) Injured - Thumb. J. Hicks (CB) Injured - Shoulder. C. Roland-Wallace (CB) Injured - Back.

“How we’re finishing — that’s the difference. We have resolve. We’re playing 60 minutes. We’re no longer looking at a bad play here or there and thinking that it’s going to send us into the tank.” - DeMeco Ryans after his team’s win against the Colts in their last game. 

“Bottom line is we’re having too many penalties, and we have to make sure to take care of that. No excuses with it. We’re going to clean it up.” - Andy Reid after his team’s loss against the Cowboys in their last game. 

WR Collins, Nico

WR Higgins, Jayden

WR Kirk, Christian

TE Schultz, Dalton

QB Stroud, C.J.

RB Marks, Woody

FB Johnson, Jakob

WR Brown, Hollywood

WR Worthy, Xavier

WR Rice, Rashee

TE Kelce, Travis

QB Mahomes, Patrick

RB Hunt, Kareem

Passing: C.J. Stroud (1,978)

Rushing: Woody Marks (486)

Receiving: Nico Collins (795)

Touchdowns: Nico Collins (5)

Passing: Patrick Mahomes (3,238)

Rushing: Kareem Hunt (515)

Receiving: Travis Kelce (719)

Touchdowns: Kareem Hunt (8)

Coaches:

Houston Texans: DeMeco Ryans (3rd season)

Kansas City Chiefs: Andy Reid (13th season)