by Rod Pearson
Friday, Nov 28, 2025
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, November 30, 2025
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Texans +3.5, Colts -3.5; Over/Under: 44.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Texans +3.5, Colts -3.5; Over/Under: 44 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Texans +3.5, Colts -3.5; Over/Under: 44.5 points
Season Record
Houston Texans: 6-5 (3rd place, AFC South)
Indianapolis Colts: 8-3 (1st place, AFC South)
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Recent Form
Houston Texans: won their last game at home against the Buffalo Bills 23-19.
Indianapolis Colts: lost their last game on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs 23-20 in overtime.
Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts Preview and Analysis
The Texans are entering this game with a 6-5 record overall and they have a 3-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 4-2 in their home games, 2-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Buffalo Bills 23-19. Davis Mills was the starting QB and he completed 16/30 passes for 153 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Jo'quavious Marks led the team in rushing yards with 74. Nico Collins led the receivers with 55 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Jaylen Reed led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Will Anderson Jr. led the defense in sacks with 2.5. Calen Bullock came away with the only 2 interceptions for them in that one.
The Colts are entering this game with an 8-3 record overall and they have a 2-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 5-0 in their home games, 2-3 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Kansas City Chiefs 23-20 in OT. Daniel Jones was the starting QB and he completed 19/31 passes for 181 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Jonathan Taylor led the team in rushing yards with 58. Ashton Dulin led the receivers with 48 receiving yards on 1 reception. Germaine Pratt led the defense in that game with 15 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while Kwity Paye and Neville Gallimore each led the defense in sacks with 1. Laiatu Latu came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Texans vs Colts Prediction
The current betting odds have the Colts listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Colts have looked really good in their games this season with their 8-3 record overall which has them right at the top of the AFC South. They have looked great on their home field too with their 5-0 home record this year. Meanwhile, the Texans have looked good in their games this season with their 6-5 record overall, but that record has them right near the bottom of the AFC South in a competitive division. They have been a much worse road team too with their 2-3 road record this season. The Texans have looked a lot better lately with 3 wins in a row now, picking up some momentum, but their offense still hasn't looked great with their defense picking up a lot of the slack. They should be getting Stroud back for this game, but the offense didn't look great even when he was playing. The Colts are off a 23-20 loss to the Chiefs in their last one and they had their opportunities to put them away but couldn't. They will be looking to bounce back though, having not played a home game in about a month, and they still have one of the best offenses in the NFL. They have an unstoppable force at RB that is going to make this a really hard day for the Texans defense. The Colts are going to bring their best effort to win this game with a chance to stay atop the division while also keeping a threat down. The best way to place a bet here is on the Colts to cover the spread in this game.
Texans Colts Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, November 30, 2025 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Colts 27 Texans 19.
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NFL Betting Trends
Houston Texans: 4-9 ATS in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 12-25 ATS in dome games. 8-17 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog. 22-5 UNDER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points.
Indianapolis Colts: 8-3 ATS as a home favorite. 22-10 ATS against conference opponents. 6-1 ATS vs. good passing defenses - allowing 175 or less passing yards/game. 5-1 UNDER after a loss by 6 or less points.
Key Injuries
Houston Texans: W. Anderson Jr. (DL) Injured - Chest. D. Autry (DL) Injured - Knee. T. Brown (OT) Injured - Hand. J. Pitre (S) Injured - Concussion. C. Stroud (QB) Injured - Concussion. J. Hill (LB) Injured - Hamstring. B. Fisher (OT) Injured - Illness. A. Carter (CB) Injured - Hamstring.
Indianapolis Colts: D. Jones (QB) Injured - Fibula. N. Gallimore (DL) Injured - Knee. S. Gardner (CB) Injured - Back. J. Carlies (LB) Injured - Ankle.
Notable Quotes
“They made a play on us but the thing about our guys is we don’t waver. We knew what we were defending. The game isn’t over just because they made one play.” - DeMeco Ryans after his team’s win against the Bills in their last game.
“Obviously very frustrating. Not up to our standards today. There’s a lot of stuff that I wanted to get called that I felt good about in the pass game and we just weren’t efficient doing it, and it starts with me.” - Shane Steichen after his team’s loss against the Chiefs in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Houston Texans
WR Collins, Nico
WR Higgins, Jayden
WR Kirk, Christian
TE Schultz, Dalton
QB Stroud, C.J.
RB Marks, Woody
FB Johnson, Jakob
Indianapolis Colts
WR Pittman Jr., Michael
WR Pierce, Alec
WR Downs, Josh
TE Warren, Tyler
QB Jones, Daniel
RB Taylor, Jonathan
Statistical Leaders
Houston Texans
Passing: C.J. Stroud (1,702)
Rushing: Nick Chubb (435)
Receiving: Nico Collins (697)
Touchdowns: Woody Marks (4)
Indianapolis Colts
Passing: Daniel Jones (2,840)
Rushing: Jonathan Taylor (1,197)
Receiving: Tyler Warren (662)
Touchdowns: Jonathan Taylor (17)
Coaches:
Houston Texans: DeMeco Ryans (3rd season)
Indianapolis Colts: Shane Steichen (3rd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
