Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 01/12/2022

by James Q

Tuesday, Jan 11, 2022

Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 01/12/2022

Game Time: 8:30 PM ET, Wednesday, January 12th, 2022 
Venue:  AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas
Where to Watch:  NBA League Pass

Opening NBA Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Spread: NL
BetMGM:  Spread:  NL
VegasInsider:  Spread:  NL
WynnBet: Spread: NL

NBA Standings

Rockets: 11-31, 15th place Western Conference
Spurs: 15-25, 12th place Western Conference

The Houston Rockets are the worst team in the Western Conference.  The Oklahoma City Thunder are close, but the Rockets are a full cut below.  They don’t only get mowed down by opponents… they get beat by themselves.  They have no clear stars (Don’t try to peddle Christian Wood in this scenario), no clear direction, they shoot the ball poorly, they turn the ball over frequently.  They are a painful combination of young and injured.   An enormous portion of their salary commitments go out to PG John Wall, whom they told “don’t bother even coming in”.  And the front office loves it!  Of course the front office loves being bad now, 2022 is one of the rare years they still have their own first round pick… It's a top 3 pick in the NBA draft or bust! They owe their own 2024, 2025, and 2026 picks to the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Thunder are also pushing for the “worst team” moniker.  Both teams will have to try harder to be terrible because the Orlando Magic and the Detroit Pistons are worse at the moment and working off the same idea.  When a team is tanking for a better draft position they do exactly what the Houston Rockets are doing… They start young guys who need development while waiving or trading away any quality talent on the roster for even more future picks.  You should expect to see Christian Wood on the move at the trade deadline to whatever team needs a Center/Power Forward for the playoffs… all they will want in return is picks, but to match the salary they will take back an assortment of young guys who are long on potential and short on current skills. Sad really.  The Rockets are on a 3-game losing streak and also are a shocking 1 win out of their last ten tries.  If you want a great betting opportunity remember Houston is 1-9 ATS over their last ten games.  The spreads should be getting larger than they are, but the Sportsbooks don’t want to get caught by a game where a good team loses 3-4 starters to Covid and Houston accidentally covers as a result.

The San Antonio Spurs are a bad team, but in no way in the same class as the Houston Rockets.  The Spurs suffer from a generational shift.  They still are coached by Gregg Popovich and there is no denying it that he is one of the best to ever do it… and deserves an enormous display in the Hall of Fame.  The man kept the Spurs great for 20 seasons and won 5 NBA Championships in that span…. And not back to back championships but slow and steady constant greatness winning it all 1999, 2003, 2005, 2007, and 2014… making deep playoff runs every year they didn’t get a ring.  Yes, they had star PF Tim Duncan, an all-time great, but Tim benefitted from Pop seeing in Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili the right type of players for his system.  It was all detonated when Duncan retired and the new star player Kawhi Leonard (the last Spurs Finals MVP) wanted out.  The team has not recovered.  The other sea of change that is holding the Spurs down is that analytics has declared that every basketball team launches three-pointers constantly with little or no care for if they are hitting them… Pop disagrees.  Pop is a good coach who believes his players should look for and work for a good shot on each possession… It's a mistake.  The three-pointers are winning, the disciplined play is losing.  Also the Spurs have a shocking lack of really good NBA starters.  The Spurs are also on a three-game losing streak and have only won 3 games over their last ten tries.

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Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs Preview and Analysis

Recent Form

The Rockets are 11-31 on the season, but 17-24-1 ATS.  They have logged 24 Overs and 18 Unders.  They are an awful 4-18 in road games.

The Spurs are 15-25 on the season, but 22-18 ATS.  They have notched 20 Overs, 18 Unders, and 2 Push.  They are 7-10 in home games.

Offensive Analysis

The Rockets are 20th in scoring with 107.5 ppg, 28th in rebounds with 42.8 rpg, and 30th in AST/TO ratio with 1.3.  The shooting numbers are all below average: 20th in FG%, 20th in 3PT%, and 30th in FT%.  If those offensive numbers were not bad enough, they are 30th in defense while allowing 116.4 ppg from opponents.  Old Timey Swinging Saloon doors play defense around that level.

The Spurs are 10th in scoring with 110.5 ppg, 9th in rebounds with 45.9 rpg, and 1st in AST/TO ratio with 2.1. (great coaching usually conveys the message “Take Care Of The Damn Ball” first… hence) The Spurs are shooting 10th in FG%, 13th in 3PT%, and take a hard dip at 29th in FT%.  They are not a winning team because the defense is soft at 23rd while allowing 110.9 ppg from opponents.

Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction 

Our prediction for Wednesday, January 12th is….  Spurs 118 - Rockets 101

The Spurs will handle the Rockets.  The Rockets actually want to be handled at this point.  Plus there has been some problem with C Christian Woods and PG Kevin Porter Jr for the Rockets that required a single game suspension for poor behavior… they both had emotional returns to the floor and big performances, but now that it is fading into the past expect an emotional letdown.

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NBA Betting Trends

The Spurs are 5-1 ATS versus Houston the last 3 seasons.
The Spurs are 2-1 ATS versus Houston at San Antonio the last 3 seasons.
2 of 3 games have gone Under the total the last 3 seasons at San Antonio.

Injury list

Rockets: C Alperen Sengun (ankle) Out ** SG Eric Gordon (groin) Quest ** PG John Wall (persona non grata) Out

Spurs: PF Zach Collins (ankle) Out ** SG Devin Vassell (covid) Quest ** SF Keldon Johnson (covid) Quest

Starting Lineups

Rockets: SF Jae’Sean Tate, PF Christian Wood, C Daniel Theis, SG Jalen Green, PG Kevin Porter Jr

Spurs: SF Joshua Primo, PF Keita Bates-Diop, C Jakob Poeltl, SG Lonnie Walker IV, PG Dejounte Murray

Statistical Leaders

Rockets
Points: Christian Wood 17.1
Assists: Kevin Porter Jr 5.8
Rebounds: Christian Wood 10
Steals: Kevin Porter Jr 1.3
Blocks: Christian Wood 0.9

Spurs
Points: Dejounte Murray 18.4
Assists: Dejounte Murray 8.9
Rebounds: Jakob Poeltl 8.9
Steals: Dejounte Murray 2.1
Blocks: Jakob Poeltl 1.4

Coaches

Rockets: Stephen Silas.  Coach Silas got the job in 2020 and simply deserves a better roster before we judge his performance.

Spurs: Gregg Popovich.  Coach Pop has had the job for decades and is headed for the hall of fame. He simply deserves a better roster before he reaches his dismount.



James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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