by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Dec 07, 2022
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Venue: AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
Where to watch: KENS, ATTSN-SW
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Rockets -2.5; Rockets -140, Spurs +120; O/U 233.5
FanDuel: Rockets -2.5; Rockets -132, Spurs +112; O/U 232.5
BetMGM: Rockets -2.5; Rockets -143, Spurs +120; O/U 233.5
Caesars: Rockets -2.5; Rockets -140, Spurs +118; O/U 233.5
Season record
Rockets: 7-17
Spurs: 6-18
Well, if you’ve never seen a balanced NBA season to this point, you’re in for some craziness along the way. A lot of new faces in new places already making an impact, and our champion handicappers are already starting to take notice. The last 30 days have seen our champion handicappers cashing in a great deal. Look at Brian Bitler going 80-55-0 in the last 30 days, a run of $18,800 net profit. How about ASA, Inc.? He’s on a 55-41-2 run the last 30 days. You know where to go for your best analysis. As the season progresses, you know we're going to be in a position to deliver you the best analysis and picks that one can have in this market. Make sure you check out our Best Bets page at bigal.com to find all of our handicappers' selections, comprehensive previews, and more!
Rockets - Spurs preview, prediction and analysis
Rockets analysis
It’s funny when you see the bad teams being good against the spread. That’s what the Houston Rockets are. They’re a great ATS team, covering 13-11 this year and the over going 13-11 this season. And yet somehow they’re not the worst team in the league. That would belong to their counterparts on Thursday. Houston has covered in five of its last eight, including winning outright 132-123 in overtime against the Philadelphia 76ers on Monday.
Houston’s weird run continues. Not only are they covering, but they’re winning outright against contenders Phoenix and Philly. The Rockets had six players score in double figures led by 27 from Jalen Green and 24 from Kevin Porter Jr. They’re a weird bunch right now, but if you have them with points, they’re a bet willing to go with right now. Funny enough, they’re laying 2 points at some books right now heading into this matchup.
“It’s huge for our confidence,” Rockets coach Stephen Silas said. “Any time that you spend as much time as we do teaching and developing you want to see the fruits of that.”
Spurs analysis
The San Antonio Spurs, on the other hand, are the complete opposite. They’re not hanging around on the court or on the books right now. They’re 9-15-0 against the spread this year and at a lowly 6-18. To be fair, they’re trying to be the lead dogs in the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes and it’s working, at the very least. The Spurs have lost 15 of their last 16 and have failed to cover in nine straight. During their 11-game losing streak, the Spurs have failed to reach 100 points in six of those games, including Sunday’s 133-95 loss to the Phoenix Suns at home.
These aren’t your dad’s San Antonio Spurs. Gregg Popovich’s teams of the past at least relied on defense. When you have a young team like this that just traded its All-Star point guard, you’re going to run into problems. The Spurs have been dogs in all but one game during this losing streak, and it was the second end of a two-game run at home against the Los Angeles Lakers where they gave up 143 in a loss.
Popovich did not coach for the second straight game due to a minor medical procedure. Assistant coach Brett Brown took over in his place.
“I thought the second period in general we were having a hard time getting stops mostly,” Brown said. “Their ability to get inside the paint, and then they had drop-off pass after drop-off pass after drop-off pass to their big guys. When you ask, ‘How did it happen?’"
Prediction
In a rare form of the Rockets playing favorites, this plays into their game. The young guys can take over in the backcourt. I’d stay away from the total because Houston has alternated the over/under in the last seven games. But as far as a winner, the Rockets are the easy choice especially if they’re only laying a couple. Rockets by 10
Betting trends
Spurs are 1-8 ATS after failing to cover in consecutive games this season.
Rockets are 71-102 ATS in all games the last 3 seasons.
Rockets are 21-41 ATS after a non-conference game the last 3 seasons.
Spurs are 187-148 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
Spurs are 57-35 ATS at home after a loss by 15 or more since 1996.
Projected starting lineup
Rockets:
PG: Kevin Porter Jr.
SG: Jalen Green
SF: Eric Gordon
PF: Jabari Smith Jr.
C: Alperen Sengun
Spurs:
PG: Tre Jones
SG: Devin Vassell
SF: Keldon Johnson
PF: Isaiah Roby
C: Zach Collins
Injury report
Rockets: Jae'Sean Tate (ankle, out)
Spurs: Josh Richardson (ankle, out), Jakob Poeltl (knee, out), Keita Bates-Diop (foot, out), Romeo Langford (ankle, out), Doug McDermott (ankle, probable)
Statistical leaders
Rockets:
Points: Jalen Green -- 21.6
Rebounds: Alperen Sengun -- 8.6
Assists: Kevin Porter Jr. -- 5.8
Spurs:
Points: Devin Vassell -- 20.5
Rebounds: Jakob Poeltl -- 9.9
Assists: Tre Jones -- 6.9
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert basketball picks today. And if you enjoyed this Houston Rockets - San Antonio Spurs prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NBA projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
