Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat Prediction, Preview and Odds - 02/28/2026

Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, February 28, 2026

Venue:  Kaseya Center, Miami, FL

Where to Watch:  Prime Video

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Rockets -3.5, Heat +3.5; Over/Under:  225.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Rockets -3.5, Heat +3.5; Over/Under:  225.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Rockets -3.5, Heat +3.5; Over/Under:  225.5 points

Houston Rockets:  37-21 (2nd place, Southwest Division)

Miami Heat:  31-29 (2nd place, Southeast Division)

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Houston Rockets:  6-4 last 10

Miami Heat:  5-5 last 10

The Rockets are entering this game with a 37-21 record overall this season and they are 17-14 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 3 game winning streak with wins coming against the Utah Jazz, the Sacramento Kings, and the Orlando Magic. Kevin Durant led the team in points in that game with 40 while Reed Sheppard was next on the team with 20 points. Alperen Şengün led the team in assists in that game with 5 while Kevin Durant and Tari Eason each led the team in rebounds with 8. They were 52.4% from the field, 37.9% from 3-point range, and 80% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 114.7 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.1 PPG against them. The Rockets have an ATS record of 27-31 this season and their O/U record is 25-32-1.

The Heat are entering this game with a 31-29 record overall this season and they are 17-11 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game losing streak with losses coming against the Milwaukee Bucks and the Philadelphia 76ers. Bam Adebayo led the team in points in that game with 29 while Tyler Herro was next on the team with 25 points. Tyler Herro led the team in assists in that game with 7 while Bam Adebayo led the team in rebounds with 14. They were 46% from the field, 42.5% from 3-point range, and 76.9% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 119.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 117.2 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 34-26 this season and their O/U record is 31-29.

The current betting odds have the Rockets listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Rockets have looked really good in their games this season with their 37-21 record overall which has them right near the top of the West. They have been a good road team too with their 17-14 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Heat have looked good in their games this season with their 31-29 record overall which has them right in the middle of the East. They have looked better on their home court too with their 17-11 home record this season. The Heat haven't been a great team this season though, hovering right around the .500 mark all year and they will likely be competing for the play-in tournament. They have been struggling in the weaker Eastern Conference all season, and lately they haven't looked that good either. They are 5-5 in their last 10 games and they have lost 2 games in a row now, coming off a road loss to the 76ers in their last one. The Rockets have been starting to get hot though and they have some momentum on their side now. The Rockets are 6-4 in their last 10 games and they have won 3 games in a row now. They are off a road win over the Magic in their last one, coming back late in that game, and lately they have been finding ways to win games. The Rockets have been one of the best teams in the West all season and they are starting to get into a groove now, so look for the more talented team to win this game. The best way to place a bet here is on the Rockets to cover the spread in this game. 

Rockets Heat Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Saturday, February 28, 2026 (3:30 pm ET start time) is Rockets 112 Heat 104.

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Houston Rockets: 24-14 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. 11-6 ATS on the road versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game. 6-3 ATS on the road versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season. 16-8 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record.

Miami Heat: 15-22 ATS as a home underdog. 23-30 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses. 20-26 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game. 8-3 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive losses.

Houston Rockets:  J. Smith Jr. (PF) Day To Day - Ankle. J. Tate (SF) Out - Knee. S. Adams (C) Out For Season - Ankle. F. VanVleet (PG) Out For Season - ACL.

Miami Heat:  N. Powell (SG) Day To Day - Groin. N. Jovic (PF) Day To Day - Back.

"Yeah, I mean turnovers are a real killer. We've been focused on it the last couple of games. Really, especially since that New York game, when we had nine in the fourth quarter. That really hurt us. So, we've gotta value the basketball, we've gotta take care of it. Work together to get good shots. I mean, it's super important." - Assistant Coach Ben Sullivan on fixing turnovers.

“I have to do a better job with this group. We have the potential that we can see. We have the explosiveness, we have the defense. It’s a matter of consistency. And that’s what I’m here for, to be able to help bridge that along with the veterans, to be able to help our consistency. But also to hold the young guys accountable. And we have more of them than we’ve had in recent history, but also develop them and infuse confidence in them. And that’s a fine balance.” - Erik Spoelstra after his team’s loss against the 76ers in their game on Thursday.

PG Amen Thompson

SG Tari Eason

SF Kevin Durant

PF Jabari Smith Jr.

C Alperen Sengun

PG Davion Mitchell

SG Tyler Herro

SF Norman Powell

PF Andrew Wiggins

C Bam Adebayo

PPG: Kevin Durant (26.1)

APG: Alperen Sengun (6.4)

Reb/G: Alperen Sengun (9.2)

PPG: Norman Powell (22.5)

APG: Davion Mitchell (7)

Reb/G: Bam Adebayo (9.8)

Coaches:

Houston Rockets: Ime Udoka (3rd season)

Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (18th season)