Houston Rockets vs Indiana Pacers Prediction, Preview and Odds - 03/04/2025

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Tuesday, March 4, 2025

Venue:  Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN

Where to Watch:  FDSIN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Rockets +4, Pacers -4; Over/Under:  229.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Rockets +4, Pacers -4; Over/Under:  229.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Rockets +4, Pacers -4; Over/Under:  229.5 points

Houston Rockets:  37-23 (2nd place, Southwest Division)

Indiana Pacers:  34-25 (3rd place, Central Division)

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Houston Rockets:  5-5 last 10

Indiana Pacers:  6-4 last 10

The Rockets are entering this game with a 37-23 record overall this season and they are 17-12 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Sacramento Kings, but this is also the 2nd game of a back-to-back for them with their game against the Oklahoma City Thunder still to be played on Monday night. In their game against the Kings, Alperen Şengün led the team in points in that game with 30 while Jalen Green was next on the team with 24 points. Fred VanVleet and Alperen Şengün each led the team in assists in that game with 5 while Amen Thompson led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 43% from the field, 37.1% from 3-point range, and 69.6% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 112.6 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 108.8 PPG against them. The Rockets have an ATS record of 32-27-1 this season and their O/U record is 30-29-1.

The Pacers are entering this game with a 34-25 record overall this season and they are 18-9 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Chicago Bulls. Aaron Nesmith led the team in points in that game with 27 while Pascal Siakam was next on the team with 20 points. Tyrese Haliburton led the team in assists in that game with 12 while Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner each led the team in rebounds with 6. They were 55.2% from the field, 43.2% from 3-point range, and 66.7% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 116.6 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 115.3 PPG against them. The Pacers have an ATS record of 29-29-1 this season and their O/U record is 31-26-2.

The current betting odds have the Pacers listed as a 4 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook.  The Pacers have looked good in their games this season with their 34-25 record overall which has them in the top half of the East and in a playoff spot. They have looked great on their home court too with their 18-9 home record. Meanwhile, the Rockets have looked really good in their games this season with their 37-23 record overall which has them in the top half of the West and in a playoff spot. They have been a good road team too with their 17-12 road record, but they haven't looked good lately. They are 5-5 in their last 10 games as they have been in a slump lately and they have also been dealing with some injuries to key players. They are coming off another loss in their last one at home to the Kings, and they aren't in a good situation here either. They are playing this game on a back-to-back and they still have a game against the Thunder on Monday night. The Thunder have the best record in the West and also have one of the best records in the entire NBA so the Rockets are going to put a ton of effort into that game and will be at a disadvantage having to play this game right after. The Pacers are rested and have been a lot better at home this season. They are also coming off a win over the Bulls in their last one and are 6-4 in their last 10 games. The Pacers can take advantage of the Rockets in this bad situation. The best way to place a bet here is on the Pacers to cover the spread in this game. 

Rockets Pacers Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Tuesday, March 4, 2025 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Pacers 126 Rockets 110.

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Houston Rockets: 31-46 ATS as a road underdog. 14-21 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230. 24-47 ATS off a road loss. 17-8 OVER as a road underdog of 6 points or less. 9-2 OVER after allowing 135 points or more.

Indiana Pacers: 20-13 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less. 6-3 1H ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 93 or more shots/game. 24-17 1H ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%). 22-12 OVER as a home favorite of 6 points or less. 9-5 OVER off a home win against a division rival.

Houston Rockets:  D. Brooks (SF) Day To Day - Knee. S. Adams (C) Day To Day - Ankle. A. Şengün (C) Day To Day - Back. A. Thompson (SF) Day To Day - Shoulder. T. Eason (PF) Day To Day - Rest. F. VanVleet (PG) Out - Ankle.

Indiana Pacers:  B. Mathurin (SF) Day To Day - Wrist. I. Jackson (C) Out For Season - Calf.

"For now, Amen will start, and Jabari will come off the bench. We still have some back-to-backs and time to figure out permanently, but when we're whole, that's what it will look like." - Ime Udoka on his changes to the starting lineup.

“His running is really good. He’s able to get some easy transition buckets mixed in. He’s not just a one-dimensional three-point shooter, and defensively he’s one of our best guys.” - Rick Carlisle on Aaron Nesmith.

PG Aaron Holiday

SG Jalen Green 

SF Amen Thompson

PF Dillon Brooks

C Alperen Sengun

PG Tyrese Haliburton

SG Andrew Nembhard

SF Aaron Nesmith

PF Pascal Siakam

C Myles Turner

PPG: J. Green (21.6)

APG: F. VanVleet (5.8)

Reb/G: A. Sengun (10.5)

PPG: P. Siakam (20.6)

APG: T. Haliburton (8.8)

Reb/G: P. Siakam (7.3)

Coaches:

Houston Rockets: Ime Udoka (2nd season)

Indiana Pacers: Rick Carlisle (4th season)