Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/02/2025

Game Time: 9:00 pm ET, Friday, May 2, 2025

Venue:  Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Rockets +5, Warriors -5; Over/Under:  204 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Rockets +5, Warriors -5; Over/Under:  203.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Rockets +4.5, Warriors -4.5; Over/Under:  203.5 points

Houston Rockets:  52-30 (1st place, Southwest Division)

Golden State Warriors:  48-34 (3rd place, Pacific Division)

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Houston Rockets:  4-6 last 10

Golden State Warriors:  6-4 last 10

The Rockets are entering the playoffs with a 52-30 record overall this season and they were 23-17 in their road games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Golden State Warriors. Fred VanVleet led the team in points in that game with 26 while Amen Thompson was next on the team with 25 points. Alperen Şengün led the team in assists in that game with 9 while Alperen Şengün led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 55.1% from the field, 43.3% from 3-point range, and 84.2% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 114.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.8 PPG against them. The Rockets have an ATS record of 46-40-1 this season and their O/U record is 46-39-2.

The Warriors are entering the playoffs with a 48-34 record overall this season and they were 24-17 in their home games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Houston Rockets. Moses Moody led the team in points in that game with 25 while Kevin Knox II was next on the team with 14 points. Stephen Curry led the team in assists in that game with 7 while Moses Moody led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 41.7% from the field, 34.1% from 3-point range, and 68.2% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 113.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 110.5 PPG against them. The Warriors have an ATS record of 43-42-3 this season and their O/U record is 44-44.

The current betting odds have the Warriors listed as a 5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 6 of a 7 game series between the 2nd seeded Rockets and the 7th seeded Warriors from the Western Conference for the 1st round of the NBA playoffs. The Warriors are leading this series 3-2 after the Rockets won game 5 at home. The Rockets made it a 3-2 series with a 131-116 win over the Warriors in the 5th game of this series, but now they are going back on the road still facing elimination here. They took charge of that 5th game right from the start as they took an early lead and never looked back, but they were always going to respond on their home court after losing 2 games in a row to put them on the cusp of elimination. The Warriors already won their 2 home games in this series too so they might not have been fully focused in the last game after winning 2 in a row at home, but now that they are coming off a loss in their last one, they will be looking to bounce back and close out this series at home. Jimmy Butler has been a big reason for the Warriors success in the 2nd half of the season, but the Warriors still won a game in this series without him and they have looked a lot better with him back healthy. The Warriors are going to bounce back in this game after a bad performance on the road in a game that was never really close so look for the Warriors to get their revenge for that loss and put the final dagger in this series at home. The best way to place a bet here is on the Warriors to cover the spread in this game. 

Rockets Warriors Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Friday, May 2, 2025 (9:00 pm ET start time) is Warriors 110 Rockets 103.

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Houston Rockets: 4-1 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5. 3-0 ATS when trailing in a playoff series. 20-14 ATS versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season. 57-34 1H UNDER as an underdog  of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 45-25 1H UNDER off a home win.

Golden State Warriors: 7-13 ATS in all playoff games. 0-4 ATS when leading in a playoff series. 17-35 1H ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less. 38-22 1H UNDER against Southwest division opponents. 8-4 1H UNDER in the first round of the playoffs.

Houston Rockets:  J. Tate (SF) Out - Ankle.

Golden State Warriors:  J. Kuminga (PF) Day To Day - Illness.

“We came out aggressive, executed offensively and defensively. We had a professional approach and handled business.” - Jalen Green after their win against the Warriors in game 5 of this series on Thursday.

“Houston was great and they took it to us right away. But like I said, it was an important finish.” - Steve Kerr after his team’s loss against the Rockets in game 5 of this series on Wednesday.

PG Fred VanVleet

SG Jalen Green 

SF Amen Thompson

PF Dillon Brooks

C Alperen Sengun

PG Stephen Curry

SG Brandin Podziemski

SF Buddy Hield

PF Jimmy Butler III

C Draymond Green

PPG: J. Green (21)

APG: F. VanVleet (5.6)

Reb/G: A. Sengun (10.3)

PPG: S. Curry (24.5)

APG: S. Curry (6)

Reb/G: K. Looney (6.1)

Coaches:

Houston Rockets: Ime Udoka (2nd season)

Golden State Warriors: Steve Kerr (11th season)