Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/28/2025

Game Time: 10:00 pm ET, Monday, April 28, 2025

Venue:  Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

Where to Watch:  TNT, MAX, truTV

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Rockets +3.5, Warriors -3.5; Over/Under:  203 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Rockets +3.5, Warriors -3.5; Over/Under:  203 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Rockets +3.5, Warriors -3.5; Over/Under:  202.5 points

Houston Rockets:  52-30 (1st place, Southwest Division)

Golden State Warriors:  48-34 (3rd place, Pacific Division)

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Houston Rockets:  4-6 last 10

Golden State Warriors:  6-4 last 10

The Rockets are entering the playoffs with a 52-30 record overall this season and they were 23-17 in their road games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Golden State Warriors. Fred VanVleet led the team in points in that game with 17 while Alperen Şengün was next on the team with 15 points. Jalen Green led the team in assists in that game with 5 while Alperen Şengün led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 39.5% from the field, 39.3% from 3-point range, and 58.3% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 114.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.8 PPG against them. The Rockets have an ATS record of 44-40-1 this season and their O/U record is 44-39-2.

The Warriors are entering the playoffs with a 48-34 record overall this season and they were 24-17 in their home games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Houston Rockets. Stephen Curry led the team in points in that game with 36 while Buddy Hield was next on the team with 17 points. Stephen Curry led the team in assists in that game with 9 while Quinten Post led the team in rebounds with 12. They were 43.3% from the field, 31.1% from 3-point range, and 80% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 113.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 110.5 PPG against them. The Warriors have an ATS record of 43-40-3 this season and their O/U record is 42-44.

The current betting odds have the Rockets listed as a 3.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 4 of a 7 game series between the 2nd seeded Rockets and the 7th seeded Warriors from the Western Conference for the 1st round of the NBA playoffs. The Warriors are leading this series 2-1 after winning game 3 at home. The Warriors took a 2-1 series lead with a 104-93 win over the Rockets in the 3rd game of this series and they really took that game over in the 2nd half. The Warriors were without Jimmy Butler in that one and it showed in the 1st half as they were down by halftime, but they came out really strong in the 2nd half and closed that game in the 4th quarter. Now the Warriors could be without Jimmy Butler in this game too and that is going to be a huge blow for them. Jimmy Butler offers a lot for the Warriors on both offense and defense so he is going to be a key part in winning this series and the Warriors haven't looked as good without him. They managed to figure things out at home in game 3 as Steph Curry put the team on his back, but the Rockets have looked good in this series and they are only going to come out harder in this game to tie up the series. The Rockets have one of the best defenses in the NBA too so they can make this game very difficult for the Warriors like they did in the 1st half. Expect the Rockets to give a much bigger push for the win in this game. The best way to place a bet here is on the Rockets to cover the spread in this game. 

Rockets Warriors Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Monday, April 28, 2025 (10:00 pm ET start time) is Rockets 102 Warriors 97.

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Houston Rockets: 28-13 ATS after scoring 100 points or less. 14-8 ATS after 3 or more consecutive unders. 34-25 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days. 3-0 UNDER in the first round of the playoffs. 26-19 UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days.

Golden State Warriors: 2-12 ATS at home after allowing 100 points or less. 17-34 1H ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less. 0-2 ATS when leading in a playoff series. 7-3 UNDER in the first round of the playoffs. 23-14 UNDER versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game.

Houston Rockets:  J. Landale (C) Day To Day - Knee. J. Tate (SF) Day To Day - Ankle.

Golden State Warriors:  J. Butler III (SF) Day To Day - Pelvis.

"Just talking. Steph (Curry) had a good game. The reason they won. Just talking. (Draymond) can't really do much of anything else, so talking is his only way." - Jalen Green after their loss against the Warriors in game 3 of this series on Saturday.

“To play 41 minutes against that kind of defense, to have a slow start and then find his rhythm, which we have seen him do countless times over the years, to hit big shots, to only turn it over twice against that kind of pressure, he was brilliant." - Steve Kerr after his team’s win against the Rockets in game 3 of this series on Saturday.

PG Fred VanVleet

SG Jalen Green 

SF Amen Thompson

PF Dillon Brooks

C Alperen Sengun

PG Stephen Curry

SG Brandin Podziemski

SF Moses Moody

PF Gui Santos

C Draymond Green

PPG: J. Green (21)

APG: F. VanVleet (5.6)

Reb/G: A. Sengun (10.3)

PPG: S. Curry (24.5)

APG: S. Curry (6)

Reb/G: K. Looney (6.1)

Coaches:

Houston Rockets: Ime Udoka (2nd season)

Golden State Warriors: Steve Kerr (11th season)