Game Time: 9:00 PM ET, Friday, March 4th, 2022 

Venue:  Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado

Where to Watch:  NBA League Pass

DraftKings:  Spread:  Nuggets -13.5; O/U 233.5

Fanduel:  Spread:  Nuggets -13.5; O/U 233.5

Caesars:  Spread: Nuggets -13.5; O/U 234

Rockets: 15-47, 15th place Western Conference

Nuggets: 36-26, 6th place Western Conference

A Western Conference matchup of a good team with the best player in basketball (arguably of course) and the worst team in basketball not named the Detroit Pistons.  The Western Conference is great and tight at the top.  The class of the Conference goes like this:  #1 Phoenix Suns, #2 Golden State Warriors, and #3 Memphis Grizzlies.  After that everything is a rodeo of ups and downs.  Teams keep getting bucked off the horse through injury or whatever… and some entrants are just now getting back on the horse like the Los Angeles Clippers and the Minnesota Timberwolves.  Where that leaves the #6 Denver Nuggets is as a fan favorite but not a medal winner.  The Nuggets do have the best player in C Nikola Jokic who won last year’s MVP and is having a better season this year.  The problem is he is all alone out there.  The quality players on his roster are injured and most likely won’t be back.  There have been some rumblings about PF Michael Porter Jr coming back, but MPJ has had 3 back surgeries in 6 years going all the way back to high school.  No NBA team should keep him in their plans for the future.  He may play again, but it is only a matter of time before he is fishing with Tracy McGrady… that is a shame as he was a fun young player.  Where does that leave the #15 Rockets?... Right where they started.  The worst team in basketball in the West.  They have very little on the roster on purpose… they are going through “the process” of being bad on purpose to get the star’s of tomorrow in the next few drafts.  They have athletic young stud SG Jalen Green, who they took in the last draft at #2 overall.  He is a teenager and no matter how many highlights he manufactures he doesn’t produce wins.  They also have C Christian Wood.  An oddly athletic Center that has bounced around from being cut from the league… to the Detroit Pistons.. To now the Houston Rockets on a good sized contract.  Christian is 17.7 ppg and 10.1 rpg to lead the Rockets in both categories, but at 28 years old… this is his prime! He will not be a part of the Rockets future which is what this is all about.  The Rockets have an assortment of permanently injured guys to help them ensure losing to get ping pong balls.  The NBA’s bottom teams will never give their cities an honest product until the league adopts relegation.  I would love to write a game preview for the Denver Nuggets VS the Maine Red Claws because the Red Claws have taken Houston’s spot for a year!  Let’s see if we can make money off the point spread on this one?

The Houston Rockets have won ZERO of their last ten games!  I would say they are on a 10-game losing streak, but actually it is an 11-game losing streak.  Their last win was way way back on February 2nd against the Cleveland Cavaliers… the cavs had an awful shooting night that night… beyond awful.  The Rockets aren’t going to realistically win any game they play the rest of the way out… the large point spreads denote that as well,  They are only 3-7 AST during the last ten games.  Covering a 15.5 point point spread against the Utah Jazz, covering a 6.5 point point spread against the Los Angeles Clippers (it was sooo close 99-98), and covering a 16.5 point spread against the Phoenix Suns… so you see a pattern.  The Rockets can only cover is the spread comes from cartoon land or if the team they are playing is missing (Clippers are) 100 million + dollars per year in salary to their injury list.  The big problem is the Rockets have the worst defense in the league… they rank 30th… immediately following any Jalen Green highlight will be the other team scoring on the other end.  To highlight the fugazzi nature of any Rockets game you have to remember that last game they started Jae’Sean Tate, a 6'4 undrafted shooting guard at one of the Forward spots… and Garrison Mathews, a 6’5 undrafted SG, at the other Forward spot. Who played Power Forward? Who cares?  Either the GM, Coach, or Owner should be tossed from the league for not really trying to win games and failing to hide it.  I could be given all three jobs simultaneously by the NBA and do as least as well as these chumps.

The Denver Nuggets have won 8 of their last ten games.  They are riding C Nikola Jokic to each and every win.  They lost their last game to the Oklahoma City Thunder… a surprise to everyone!  Vegas had a -15.5 spread in favor of the Thunder… so I gave out the Thunder to win… but I didn’t expect they would actually win the game!  I expected them to cover.  The problem is that Jokic only played 32 minutes for 22 points.  Without a big game from Jokic… the Nuggets are vulnerable to anything with a pulse.  I would expect Jokic to pull down 40 against the Rockets.  I would expect the bounce back game against no defense will be a great one.  If not… then Jokic is tired and hurt and the team should rest him the rest of the way.  Also, a thing to watch closely is Aaron Gordon.  My connections in Denver let me know that the team honestly sees him as an anchor.  They wanted him gone at the trade deadline, but no one else wanted him or was willing to put anything of value up.  In 30 minutes with Nikola Jokic having a bad game… SF Aaron Gordon scored 9 points and shot 1-7 from 3-point land.  To add  some sprinkles to that Sundae he hauled in a whopping 3 rebounds!  Gordon needs to go and if they can’t make that happen then he needs to stop starting!  This team could easily slide Will Barton to SF and get better results!... Maybe bring in Nick Stauskas from the G-League to play the 2… anything!! Just get Aaron Gordon off the court!  No one on the roster should be happy about their jobs while Nikola leads the team in points, assists, rebounds, steals, FG%, and blocks!!... It is an indictment on the guards and the forwards that they can’t find any stat column to pitch in on.  

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The Rockets are 15-47 on the season, but 25-36-1 ATS.  They have logged 35 Overs, 26 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 7-26 in road games.  They have not won double digit road games or double digit home games.

The Nuggets are 36-26 on the season, but 28-33-1 ATS.  They have notched 32 Overs, 28 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 17-11 in home games.

The Rockets are 19th in scoring with 108.5 ppg, 30th in rebounds with 42.2 per game, and 30th in AST/TO ratio with 1.4.  They are 30th, THIRTIETH, on defense while allowing 118 ppg from opponents.  This team gave up 139 points to the Toronto Raptors and 132 to the Utah Jazz and 142 to the Los Angeles Clippers during this last stretch of games.   

The Nuggets are 12th in scoring with 110.4 ppg, and 21st in rebounds with 44.1 per game, and 5th in AST/TO ratio (Jokic does not turn the ball over after you throw it to him).  On defense they rank 12th while holding opponents to 107.8 ppg.

Our prediction for Friday, March 4th is….  Nuggets 128 - Rockets 117

Avoid all spreads bigger than 10 points… The Rockets cover when that happens because almost any group of players cover a 10 point spread in the NBA.  But if it is anything lower than 10… Bet on the Nuggets.  So, Sadly in this case... take the points and bet on the Rockets.  If you hate the idea of putting money on the Rockets... Than just bet the Over.

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Houston is 10-3 ATS as a road underdog of 12.5 pts or more the last 3 seasons.
Denver is 7-18 as home favorite of 10 or more points the last 3 seasons.
Denver is 59-33 ATS off a home loss against a division rival since 1996.

Rockets: Eric Gordon Out ** John Wall Out ** PG Dennis Shroder (ankle) Quest ** SF Jae’Sean Tate (ankle) Quest (also he’s really a shooting guard).

Nuggets:  SG Jamal Murray (knee) Out ** PF Michael Porter Jr (back) Out ** 

Rockets: SF Jae’Sean Tate, PF Garrison Mathews, C Christian Wood, SG Jalen Green, PG Kevin Porter Jr

Nuggets: PF Jeff Green, SF Aaron Gordon, C Nikola Jokic, SG Will Barton, PG Monte Morris

Rockets

Points: Christina Wood 17.7

Assists: Dennis Schroder 7.5

Rebounds: Christian Wood 10.1

Steals: Kevin Porter Jr 1.2

Blocks: Christian Wood 0.9

Nuggets

Points: Nikola Jokic 25.4

Assists: Nikola Jokic 7.9

Rebounds: Nikola Jokic 13.8

Steals: Nikola Jokic 1.4

Blocks: Nikola Jokic 0.7

Rockets: Stephen Silas

Nuggets: Michael Malone