Game Time: 1:00 PM  ET, Sunday, February 20th, 2022

Venue: Charles Koch Arena, Wichita, Kansas

Where to Watch:  ESPN

 

DraftKings Sportsbook:  NL

Caesars:  Spread: 

VegasInsider:  Spread: 

WynnBet: Spread: NL 

Cougars: 21-5 on the season, 10-2 in the AAC

Shockers: 13-10 on the season, 4-7 in the AAC

An AAC hardwood matchup with a foregone conclusion.  The Cougars will beat the Shockers.  I hope I didn’t ruin the suspense… but last time around on January 8th the Cougars beat the Shockers 76-66.  The Final score makes it seem closer than it was.  Truth is the Cougars control;ed the game start to finish despite missing quite a few shots.  For bettors the real information is… is this a good betting opportunity?  The last time around Houston won by 10 points but lost ATS which was -11.  A one point bad beat.  The sort of things that stings bettors the world over.  It also illustrates that you have to be supremely confident in your analysis of any basketball game where the point spread hit actual double digits!  The entire sport of basketball simply isn’t designed for double digit wins.  The ebbs and flows of the game… and the fact that even though one team may be better… The other team still has quality basketball players top to bottom.  Let’s do the numbers and see if the current spread will give the Shockers the advantage again.

The Houston Cougars are the #14 ranked team in college basketball.  Big things are expected of them… especially wins against losing teams in their own conference.  A loss to the unranked Shockers would be unforgivable.  Houston has won 8 of their last 10 games… but the two losses both came in their last 3 games.  This is definitely a rough patch for Houston who lost to the Memphis Tigers and the SMU Mustangs… both were losses ATS.  It shines a light on that maybe Houston is not that tough of a program… with wins coming against Tulane, UCF, ECU… but losses coming against the good programs.  Plus they are only 5-5 ATS over their last ten games. They failed to cover in wins against Tulsa, Tulane, and Wichita… all games with double digit spreads in their favor.  Truth is Houston is a good program that lost its leading scorer, point guard Marcus Sasser 17.7 ppg, for the season with a toe injury. The reshuffling of the lineup has put a lot of pressure on everyone else, especially point guard Jamal Shead.  When teams face this pressure of making up for an absence their is a natural tendency to simply be happy to get out of a game with a win… they don’t press the tempo when they feel they are up by enough to win they way they would if they had a leading scorer looking to set team and conference marks.  Also the Sportsbooks are going to adjust the line only when they see the betting move to the other side… so as long as bettors tend to favor the favorite?... You can swoop in and bet the other way on a big spread. (if the numbers hold up)

The Wichita State Shockers have only won 4 of their last ten games.  They have no injuries to report and are at full strength… they just don’t have that dynamic a roster.  The AAC has run roughshod over them with loss after loss piling up.  They are also only 4-6 ATS in their last ten games… A thing to notice here is that Wichita State beat SMU on February 5th… Houston just lost to SMU…. Wichita State also outright beat Tulsa while being a 7.5 point underdog… Houston failed to cover the spread when they beat Tulsa.  All of this can be tied to Houston’s loss of Marcus Sasser, and Wichita’s consistency as a team.  Wichita will not beat the Houston Cougars… but they are primed to cover a big spread if a big spread is put on the game.

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Houston is 21-4 on the season, but 15-10 ATS.  They have logged 11 Overs, 13 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 5-2 in road games.

Wichita is 13-10 on the season, but 9-14 ATS.  They have notched 9 Overs and 14 Unders.  They are 10-5 in home games.

Houston is 61st in scoring with 76.2 ppg, 19th in rebounds with 36.7 per game, 22nd in AST/TO ratio with 1.4.  They excel on defense where they are ranked 6th while only allowing a measly 58 ppg from opponents.

Wichita State is 248th in scoring with 68.6 ppg, 93rd in rebounds with 33.9 ppg, and 235th in AST/TO ratio with 0.9.  They also tend to excel on defense where they are ranked 74th while allowing a pretty good 65.4 ppg from opponents.  

Our prediction for Sunday, February 20th is…  Cougars 74 - Shockers 69

Yes, this is a pick for the underdog to cover.  You have to be careful when selecting the bet… all signs point to the point spread being between 9 - 10.5 in favor of the Cougars… that's just based on the fact that most people bet based on record.  The Shockers covered an 11 pt spread the last time around and will cover a similarly close spread this time.  This time around Wichita is at HOME… Wichita has no players on the injury list.   If the Sportsbooks do something sneaky like drop the spread to 5… then avoid the bet.  Houston still has the better team… just not a double-digit dominant team.

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Houston: Guard Tramon Mark (shoulder) Out for season ** Guard Marcus Sasser (toe) Out for season.

Wichita: no injuries to report.

Houston: Jamal Shead, Taze Moore, Kyler Edwards, Josh Carlton, Fabian White Jr

Wichita: Dexter Dennis, Tyson Etienne, Craig Porter Jr, Morris Udeze, Joe Pleasant

Cougars

Points: Marcus Sasser 17.7

Assists: Jamal Shead 5.4

Rebounds: Josh Carlton 6.5

Steals: Marcus Sasser 2.2

Blocks: Fabian White Jr 1.4

Shockers

Points: Tyson Etienne 15.1

Assists: Craig Porter Jr 3.6

Rebounds: Morris Udeze 6.0

Steals: Craig Porter Jr 1.3

Blocks: Craig Porter Jr 1.0

Houston: Kelvin Sampson

Wichita: Isaac Brown