Houston Cougars vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/30/2023

Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, September 30, 2023

Venue:  Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, TX 

Where to Watch:  Fox Sports 2

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Houston +8.5, TTU -8.5; Over/Under:  51.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Houston +8.5, TTU -8.5; Over/Under:  51.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Houston +8.5, TTU -8.5; Over/Under:  51.5 points

Houston Cougars:  2-2 (0-1) (11th place, Big 12)

Texas Tech Red Raiders:  1-3 (0-1) (13th place, Big 12)

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Houston Cougars:  won their last game at home against the Sam Houston State Bearkats 38-7.

Texas Tech Red Raiders:  lost their last game on the road against the West Virginia Mountaineers 20-13.

Houston is entering this game with a 2-2 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their conference games too. They are 2-1 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Sam Houston 38-7. Donovan Smith was the starting QB and he completed 31/40 passes for 294 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Parker Jenkins led the team in rushing yards with 105 and 3 TDs. Matthew Golden led the receivers with 92 receiving yards on 9 receptions and 1 TD. David Ugwoegbu led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Anthony Holmes Jr. led the defense in sacks with 1. Isaiah Hamilton came away with the only interception for them in that game.

 

 

 

Texas Tech is entering this game with a 1-3 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their conference games too. They are 1-1 in their home games, 0-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against West Virginia 20-13. Tyler Shough was the starting QB and he completed 2/6 passes for 3 passing yards before getting injured and replaced by Behren Morton who completed 13/37 passes for 158 yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Tahj Brooks led the team in rushing yards with 149. Xavier White led the receivers with 45 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Jesiah Pierre led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 7 assisted tackles while Jaylon Hutchings led the defense in sacks with 1. Ben Roberts and Malik Dunlap each came away with 1 interception for them in that game.

The current betting odds have Texas Tech listed as an 8.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Texas Tech just lost to West Virginia in their last game and lost their starting QB in that game too, but they have had big problems on the road going back to last season as they are already 0-2 in road games this year. They have been a lot better in their home games and even though they are missing their starting QB they still have a really good team that will be looking to bounce back at home here. Their only home loss this season was against Oregon in a close game and Houston hasn't been that great themselves. Houston may be 2-2 but they lost their only road game played and they also lost their 1st conference game of the year as they were embarrassed at home by TCU. They don't have a good offense either so they are going to struggle to move the ball against the Texas Tech defense and they won't get much done on the road. Texas Tech may be missing their starting QB but they have enough talent on the team to get by in this game against a struggling Houston team that isn't very good. The best way to place a bet here is on Texas Tech to cover the spread in this game. 

Houston Texas Tech Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 30, 2023 (3:30 pm ET start time) is Texas Tech 28 Houston 13.

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Houston Cougars: 4-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread. 4-9 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. 25-9 OVER as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. 12-2 OVER in road games. 6-1 OVER in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56.

Texas Tech Red Raiders: 18-9 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. 8-2 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. 33-22 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. 9-5 OVER off an upset loss as a road favorite.

Houston Cougars:  N. Guzman (DB) out for season - Undisclosed. R. Sanford II (RB) out for season - Undisclosed.

Texas Tech Red Raiders:  C. Robinson (TE) Ques Sat - Ankle. J. Rodriguez (LB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. B. Burris (DL) Early Nov - Knee. W. Smith (LB) out for season - Back. T. Shough (QB) Late Nov - Leg. E. Banks (DL) Out indefinitely - Back. I. Smith (LB) out for season - Knee.

“He looked pretty ready to me. He has a chance to be a special player. First start. First 100-yard game. I think we’ll be seeing a lot of that around here from Parker Jenkins.” - Dana Holgorsen after his team’s win against Sam Houston State in their last game. 

“You feel for a guy that works as hard as he does.” - Joey McGuire on the injury to Tyler Shough after his team’s loss against WVU in their last game. 

WR Golden, Matthew 

WR Brown, Samuel 

WR Manjack IV, Joseph 

TE Byrnes, Matt  

QB Smith, Donovan 

RB Jenkins, Parker  

WR Brown, Jordan 

WR Bradley, Jerand 

WR McCray, Drae 

WR Price, Myles 

TE Tharp, Mason  

QB Morton, Behren  

RB Brooks, Tahj 

Passing: D. Smith (1012)

Rushing: P. Jenkins (147)

Receiving: S. Brown (405)

Touchdowns: M. Golden (4)

Passing: T. Shough (746)

Rushing: T. Brooks (412)

Receiving: J. Bradley (241)

Touchdowns: J. Bradley (3)

Coaches:

Houston Cougars: Dana Holgorsen (5th season)

Texas Tech Red Raiders: Joey McGuire (2nd season)