by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Monday, Nov 29, 2021
Game Time: 4:00 pm ET, Saturday, December 4, 2021
Venue: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Where to Watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Houston +10, Cincinnati -10; Over/Under: 54 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Houston +10.5, Cincinnati -10.5; Over/Under: 54.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Houston +10.5, Cincinnati -10.5; Over/Under: 54.5 points
Season Record
Houston Cougars: 11-1 (2nd place, AAC)
Cincinnati Bearcats: 12-0 (1st place, AAC)
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Houston Cougars vs Cincinnati Bearcats Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
Houston Cougars: won on the road on Nov. 27 against the Connecticut Huskies 45-17.
Cincinnati Bearcats: won on the road on Nov. 26 against the East Carolina Pirates 35-13.
Houston Cougars Analysis
Houston is coming into this game with an 11-1 record overall and they are 6-0 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They finished their regular season in 2nd place of the American Athletic Conference and they were 8-0 against their conference opponents this season. This will be the AAC Championship game to decide who will win the conference this season. They lost their first game of the season and have gone on an 11 game winning streak since then, coming into this one off of another win in their last game. Clayton Tune played a great game in that one as he completed 21/30 passes for 301 yards and 4 touchdowns. Alton McCaskill led the team in rushing with 54 yards and 1 touchdown on 9 carries while Chandler Smith had 38 yards and 1 TD on 8 carries. Jake Herslow had a nice day as he led the receivers with 111 yards and 1 touchdown on 5 receptions while Jeremy Singleton was right behind with 100 yards and 1 touchdown on 5 receptions. Nathaniel Dell caught the other touchdown passes in that game with 2. Gervarrius Owens led the defense in that game with 3 solo tackles and 4 assisted ones. D'Anthony Jones led the defense in sacks in that game with 2 while no one on the defense was able to come up with an interception for them in that one. They have scored 465 points in their 12 games this season averaging 38.8 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 238 points against them allowing 19.8 PPG. Their offense is averaging 421.8 YPG while their defense is allowing 290.3 YPG.
Cincinnati Bearcats Analysis
Cincinnati is coming into this game with a 12-0 record overall and they are 6-0 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They finished in 1st place of the AAC and they were 8-0 against the opponents on their conference schedule this season. This game will be to decide who wins the AAC title. They were undefeated all season and are coming into this game on that 12 game winning streak after another win in their last game. Desmond Ridder played well in that game but he also struggled at times as he completed 17/28 passes for 301 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Jerome Ford led the team in rushing with 85 yards and 1 touchdown on 20 carries while Ryan Montgomery also ran in 1 TD in that one. Alec Pierce had a nice day as he led the receivers with 136 yards and 1 touchdown on 8 receptions while Leonard Taylor had 52 yards and 1 touchdown on 2 receptions. Ahmad Gardner led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles. Joel Dublanko led the defense in sacks in that game with 1.5 while Darrian Beavers came up with the only interception for them in that one. They have scored 475 points in their 12 games this season averaging 39.6 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 189 points against them allowing 15.8 PPG. Their offense is averaging 430.9 YPG while their defense is allowing 302.3 YPG.
Houston vs Cincinnati Prediction
Houston is coming into this game as a 10 point underdog with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Both of these teams have been playing great all season with great offenses and defenses. This is the Conference Championship game but it is so much more than that as well. Houston can not only win the title with a win in this game but they would also hand Cincinnati their 1st loss of the season and would take them out of the college football playoffs as Cincinnati needs a win here to keep their spot in the top 4 right now. There is a lot of pressure on Cincinnati not just to win this game but to get style points and win by a lot. Houston is a good team and will be very motivated to get up for this game and try to get the win. The best bet to place in this game is on Houston to cover the spread as they will at least keep this game a close one.
Houston Cincinnati Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, December 4, 2021 (4:00 pm ET start time) is Cincinnati 35 Houston 31.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Houston Cougars: 24-26 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. 171-175 ATS in all games. 79-84 ATS in road games. 106-117 ATS against conference opponents. 86-90 ATS in games played on turf.
Cincinnati Bearcats: 26-23 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. 175-159 ATS in all games. 47-36 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 95-93 ATS as a favorite. 58-51 ATS as a home favorite. 87-74 ATS in home games. 104-94 ATS against conference opponents.
Key Injuries
Houston Cougars: K. Carter (WR) Ques Dec 4 - Undisclosed injury. S. Williams (DL) Out Indefinitely - Ankle injury. J. Fullbright III (RB) out for season - Knee injury.
Cincinnati Bearcats: C. Smith (K) Ques Dec 4 - Undisclosed injury. M. Young Jr. (WR) Ques Dec 4 - Undisclosed injury.
Notable Quotes
"We knew we were going to be in this game, but yet we had to take care of business and play Memphis and then we had to take care of business and play at UConn. That's tricky. Those are trap games and we didn't fall for it." - Dana Holgorsen on his team’s win against Memphis and UConn despite knowing they were going to be in the AAC Championship game.
"We knew there were more things at stake. It's great when you have a mature group that you don't have to go over every little thing. You trust that they're enjoying it, but they have to understand that to whom much is given, much is expected." - Luke Fickell on his team’s win against ECU in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Houston Cougars
WR Herslow, Jake
WR Singleton, Jeremy
WR Dell, Nathaniel
TE Trahan, Christian
QB Tune, Clayton
RB McCaskill, Alton
Cincinnati Bearcats
WR Pierce, Alec
WR Scott, Tyler
WR Young Jr., Michael
TE Whyle, Josh
QB Ridder, Desmond
RB Ford, Jerome
Statistical Leaders
Houston Cougars
Passing: C. Tune (3013)
Rushing: A. McCaskill (844)
Receiving: N. Dell (1027)
Touchdowns: A. McCaskill (17)
Cincinnati Bearcats
Passing: D. Ridder (3000)
Rushing: J. Ford (1051)
Receiving: A. Pierce (802)
Touchdowns: J. Ford (18)
Coaches:
Houston Cougars: Dana Holgorsen (3rd season)
Cincinnati Bearcats: Luke Fickell (6th season)
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
