by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Sunday, Dec 12, 2021
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Tuesday, December 28, 2021
Venue: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, AL
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Houston +3, Auburn -3; Over/Under: 52 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Houston +3, Auburn -3; Over/Under: 51.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Houston +3, Auburn -3; Over/Under: 52.5 points
Season Record
Houston Cougars: 11-2 (2nd place, AAC)
Auburn Tigers: 6-6 (6th place, SEC West)
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Houston Cougars vs Auburn Tigers Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
Houston Cougars: lost on the road on Dec. 4 against the Cincinnati Bearcats 35-20.
Auburn Tigers: lost at home on Nov. 27 against the Alabama Crimson Tide in overtime 24-22.
Houston Cougars Analysis
Houston is coming into this game after finishing the regular season with an 11-2 record overall and they are 0-1 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off of a loss in their last game against Cincinnati in the AAC Conference Championship game. Clayton Tune completed 17/26 passes for 250 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception in that one. Alton McCaskill led the team in rushing with 39 yards on 13 carries. Nathaniel Dell led the receivers with 152 yards and 1 touchdown on 9 receptions while Jake Herslow had 57 yards and 1 touchdown on 5 receptions. Gervarrius Owens led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 3 assisted ones. Logan Hall recorded the only sack in that game with 1 while no one on the defense was able to come up with an interception for them in that one. They have scored 485 points in their 13 games this season averaging 37.3 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 273 points against them allowing 21 PPG. Their offense is averaging 415.2 YPG while their defense is allowing 298.8 YPG.
Auburn Tigers Analysis
Auburn is coming into this game after finishing the regular season with a 6-6 record overall and they will be playing their first neutral site game of the season in this game. Their last win was against the Ole Miss Rebels but they have gone on a 4 game losing streak since then with losses coming against the Texas A&M Aggies, the Mississippi State Bulldogs, the South Carolina Gamecocks, and the Alabama Crimson Tide in their last game. TJ Finley completed 17/26 passes for 137 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. Cartavious Bigsby led the team in rushing with 63 yards on 29 carries. Demetris Robertson led the receivers with 39 yards on 3 receptions while Ja'Varrius Johnson led the team in receptions with 4 for 7 yards. Kobe Hudson and Landen King both caught 1 touchdown pass each in that one. Colby Wooden led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 3 assisted ones along with 1 sack as well. Derick Hall led the defense in sacks in that game with 3 while Bydarrius Knighten came up with 1 interception for them in that one. They have scored 355 points in their 12 games this season averaging 29.6 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 266 points against them allowing 22.2 PPG. Their offense is averaging 405.6 YPG while their defense is allowing 372.1 YPG.
Houston vs Auburn Prediction
Houston is coming into this Birmingham Bowl as a 3 point underdog with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Houston has been playing very well all season. They have just 2 losses and those came against Texas Tech in their first game of the season and against Cincinnati in their last game in the AAC Championship who is in the college football playoffs as well ranked number 4 in the nation. Auburn has not been playing well this season and barely made it into this game at 6-6 after losing 4 straight to finish their season. Houston has been playing much better and they are also the better team here in general. The best bet to place in this game is on Houston to cover the spread or on them to win this game straight up on the moneyline.
Houston Auburn Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Tuesday, December 28, 2021 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Houston 38 Auburn 27.
Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Houston Cougars Auburn Tigers prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our weekly NCAAF predictions and previews.
NCAAF Betting Trends
Houston Cougars: 20-30 O/U off a loss against a conference rival. 9-25 O/U after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread. 9-15 O/U after a 2 game road trip. 1-5 ATS as a neutral field underdog of 7 points or less.
Auburn Tigers: 8-13 O/U in a bowl game. 19-40 O/U when the line is +3 to -3. 14-22 O/U in all games. 8-17 O/U after playing a conference game. 4-14 O/U after playing 3 straight conference games. 9-19 O/U off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival. 1-6 O/U off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less. 7-18 O/U after the first month of the season. 4-13 O/U in the second half of the season.
Key Injuries
Houston Cougars: K. Carter (WR) Ques Dec 28 - Undisclosed injury. J. Fullbright III (RB) out for season - Knee injury.
Auburn Tigers: A. Carlson (K) out for season - Knee injury. B. Nix (QB) Out indefinitely - Ankle injury. T. Dawson Jr. (WR) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed injury. J. Wright (DT) out for season - Knee injury.
Notable Quotes
"We went toe to toe with them for as long as we could. They are first-class and deserving of top four. I don't know how you keep Cincinnati out." - Dana Holgorsen on his team’s loss to Cincinnati in the AAC title game.
"Auburn’s a great place. Love it. Love the community here. Love where we’re going with the program. Disappointed as hell, but at the same time, excited about the future and the things that we’re going to be able to do and the stuff that’s happening here in this program.” - Bryan Harsin on his future with the program after this year.
Starting Lineups
Houston Cougars
WR Herslow, Jake
WR Singleton, Jeremy
WR Dell, Nathaniel
TE Trahan, Christian
QB Tune, Clayton
RB McCaskill, Alton
Auburn Tigers
WR Jackson, Shedrick
WR Robertson, Demetris
WR Johnson, Ja'Varrius
TE Shenker, John Samuel
QB Finley, T.J.
RB Bigsby, Tank
Statistical Leaders
Houston Cougars
Passing: C. Tune (3263)
Rushing: A. McCaskill (883)
Receiving: N. Dell (1179)
Touchdowns: A. McCaskill (17)
Auburn Tigers
Passing: B. Nix (2294)
Rushing: T. Bigsby (1003)
Receiving: K. Hudson (523)
Touchdowns: T. Bigsby (10)
Coaches:
Houston Cougars: Dana Holgorsen (3rd season)
Auburn Tigers: Bryan Harsin (1st season)
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
