Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Preview and Odds - 09/11/2026

Game Time: 7:10 pm ET, Friday, September 11, 2026

Venue:  Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL 

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Astros +144, Rays -175; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Astros +145, Rays -175; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Astros +145, Rays -175; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Houston Astros:  75-72 (1st place, AL West)

Tampa Bay Rays:  87-59 (1st place, AL East)

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Houston Astros:  6-4 last 10

Tampa Bay Rays:  5-5 last 10

The Astros are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 75-72 record overall and have a road record of 38-34. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Rays on Friday. Their offense ranks 12th in the MLB with a .725 OPS. Cristian Javier was their starting pitcher on Thursday while rookie pitcher Miguel Ullola is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 0-0 with a 3.86 ERA this season. His team lost their last 5 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 0 BB with 1 SO on 1 hit through 1 IP against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Rays are entering this series off a loss and won their 3-game series against the Atlanta Braves 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with an 87-59 record overall and have a home record of 47-25. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Astros on Friday. Their offense ranks 7th in the MLB with a .733 OPS. Nick Martinez was their starting pitcher on Thursday while Drew Rasmussen is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 14-5 with a 2.88 ERA this season. His team won their last 9 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 1 homer, and 0 walks with 7 strikeouts on 3 hits through 7 innings pitched against the Texas Rangers.

The current betting odds have the Rays listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Rays have looked great in their games this season with their 87-59 record overall which has them right at the top of the AL East with one of the best records in MLB. They have looked great in their own ballpark too with their 47-25 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Astros have looked good in their games this season with their 75-72 record overall which has them right at the top of the AL West. They have been a good road team too with their 38-34 road record this year. The Astros have been leading their division for a few weeks now, going 6-4 in their last 10 games, but they aren't going to have the most experienced starter on the mound here. The Rays are 5-5 in their last 10 games, getting hot lately, and this is a pitching matchup that they can take advantage of. The Rays are going with Rasmussen in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 14-5 with a 2.88 ERA and he has been one of their best starters this year. He is coming off another great start giving up 1 earned run which has been a common theme for him all season and the team has been having a ton of success with him too, winning 9 games in a row now with him starting. The Astros are going with Ullola in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 0-0 with a 3.86 ERA and he hasn't had many starts in this rookie season. He gave up no runs in his last appearance, but he only pitched 1 inning and the team has lost 5 games in a row now with him making an appearance. The Rays have also had a great offense all season and have looked like a different team in their home games. The best way to place a bet here is on the Rays to win this game. 

Astros Rays Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, September 11, 2026 (7:10 pm ET start time) is Rays 3 Astros 1.

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Houston Astros: 49-43 (+5 units) on the moneyline against AL East opponents. 121-111 (+9.5 units) on the moneyline in road games. 189-162 (+6 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 4-1 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70%.

Tampa Bay Rays: 155-154 (-15.3 units) on the moneyline vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse. 98-120 (-15.3 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 39-56 (-12.3 units) on the moneyline vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game. 26-16 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record.

Houston Astros:  M. Burrows (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. S. Okert (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Hamstring. B. Matthews (CF) Sixty Day IL - Knee. C. Correa (SS) Sixty Day IL - Ankle. B. Walter (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Tampa Bay Rays:  T. Walls (SS) Ten Day IL - Hip. G. Cleavinger (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. M. Rodriguez (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Back. S. McClanahan (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. B. Williamson (2B) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. J. Fraley (RF) Sixty Day IL - Groin. J. Heasley (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. G. Lux (LF) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. R. Pepiot (SP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. E. Uceta (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.

“It's incredible what [Altuve’s] accomplished in his career, and obviously, he's not done. Twenty-five hundred hits -- it's hard just to get one. It's hard just to get to the big leagues. And this guy's been doing it for a very long time.” - Joe Espada after his team’s loss against the Phillies in their game on Wednesday. 

“He really did a nice job early on, and his stuff was tremendous throughout the course of the five innings.” - Kevin Cash on Griffin Jax after his team’s win against the Braves in their game on Wednesday. 

Jeremy Peña (R) SS

Yordan Alvarez (L) DH

Isaac Paredes (R) 3B

Jose Altuve (R) 2B

Daulton Varsho (L) CF

Christian Walker (R) 1B

Cam Smith (R) RF

Taylor Trammell (L) LF

Christian Vázquez (R) C

Yandy Díaz (R) DH

Ryan Vilade (R) 1B

Junior Caminero (R) 3B

Jonny DeLuca (R) RF

Chandler Simpson (L) LF

Nick Madrigal (R) 2B

Jorge Mateo (R) SS

Nick Fortes (R) C

Cedric Mullins (L) CF

Batting Average:  Yordan Alvarez (.312)

Hits:  Yordan Alvarez (162)

Home Runs:  Yordan Alvarez (38)

RBI:  Yordan Alvarez (96)

Stolen Bases:  Cam Smith (10)

Wins:  Peter Lambert (8)

Saves:  Josh Hader (24)

ERA:  Josh Hader (0.89)

Batting Average:  Liam Hicks (.310)

Hits:  Yandy Díaz (171)

Home Runs:  Junior Caminero (39)

RBI:  Junior Caminero (93)

Stolen Bases:  Chandler Simpson (41)

Wins:  Drew Rasmussen (14)

Saves:  Bryan Baker (39)

ERA:  Bryan Baker (1.61)

Managers:

Houston Astros: Joe Espada (3rd season)

Tampa Bay Rays: Kevin Cash (12th season)