by Chuck Sommers
Sunday, Apr 17, 2022
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Venue: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
Where to watch: AT&T SportsNet-Southwest, ROOTNW
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Astros -125, Mariners +105
BetMGM: Astros -125, Mariners +105
Caesars: Astros -125, Mariners +105
Season record
Astros: 5-3
Mariners: 4-5
We're fresh into this baseball season and of course it's AAA Sports jumping out to an 11-5-0 start in Major League Baseball over the course of the last week. We've seen some exciting games and some awesome moments, but what will happen as April continues for the better? Catch AAA's plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Astros - Mariners preview and analysis
Justin Verlander can still wheel and deal with the best of them, and that’s a good sign for the Houston Astros going forward.
Facing one of the best batting orders in the American League, albeit they’re off to a slow start, Verlander went 8 innings and struck out eight in the Astros’ 4-0 win over the Seattle Mariners to snap a two-game losing streak and bounce back after losing 11-1 in the series opener on Friday.
The finale will take place Sunday in what’s going to be a crucial game for both teams, particularly the Mariners in the hopes of getting some sort of series victory under their belt that hasn’t quite happened to this point.
But the Astros were the beneficiary of a vintage Verlander performance in his second start back from Tommy John Surgery last season. It was his first victory in 21 months, also against Seattle, and if he’s back to form, that’s going to go a long way for the reigning division champs.
"I wouldn't have put in all the hard work if I didn't think I could still pitch at a high level," Verlander said. "But that being said, it is definitely gratifying to have that feeling again of going out there after a tough loss yesterday and being able to pick us up and (go) deep in the game, and do really what I expect to do most times out."
Martin Maldonado hit his first homer of the season, a two-run shot in the top of the fifth to push the lead to 3-0. The Astros already brought in one from the second on a sacrifice fly from Jeremy Pena. Jose Altuve, who like many stars has gotten off to a slow start this season batting .178, drove in Pena on an RBI single in the top of the seventh.
Verlander threw 87 pitches through those eight innings.
"He kind of emptied the tank on that eighth inning," Houston manager Dusty Baker said. "Now, a month from now? He would probably want to finish that game out."
Base runners were also a premium for the Mariners. They only had three hits while Verlander had no walks in his efficient night. Such an evening would’ve made Clayton Kershaw proud if he had a perfect game going.
Ty France had two of Seattle’s three hits, while Adam Frazier had the only other hit for the Mariners while leaving just eight on base.
Chris Flexen had a solid outing of 6 innings and allowing the three runs on five hits while striking out three, but he just didn’t get the run support that Verlanded clearly didn’t need as much of on this night.
"That's about as dominant a performance as you're going to see and for a guy that has been doing it in this league for a long, long time," Seattle manager Scott Servais said about Verlander.
The slow start for Seattle hasn’t helped when it comes to offense. Top prospect Julio Rodriguez is batting .107 right now; newly-acquired Jesse Winker is just at .172 after going 0-for-4; France is also hovering around .265 but that went up after his two-hit day.
The Mariners are going to need better production from the bats, and I’d venture to guess it’s going to take about a month before they get in shape and start driving in more runs.
Prediction
It should be an entertaining pitching matchup on Sunday with Jose Urquidy getting the call against Matt Brash for Seattle. Two right-handers who had solid starts to 2022, but with Urquidy having more of a better start with that 1.80 ERA. I think he gets it done again and does enough to silence the Seattle bats. Astros win 7-3
Betting trends
Astros are 116-73 the past three seasons as a favorite of -110 or higher.
Mariners are 52-36 the past three seasons when ML is between +125 and -125.
Mariners are 41-30 the past three seasons as a home dog of +100 or higher.
Mariners are 68-49 against division opponents the past three seasons.
Mariners are 34-27 the past three seasons after losing four or five of their last six.
Projected lineup
Astros:
Jose Altuve (R) 2B
Michael Brantley (L) LF
Alex Bregman (R) 3B
Kyle Tucker (L) RF
Yuli Gurriel (R) 1B
Niko Goodrum (S) DH
Chas McCormick (R) CF
Jeremy Pena (R) SS
Martin Maldonado (R) C
Jose Urquidy (RHP) 1-0, 1.80 ERA
Jose Altuve (R) 2B
Michael Brantley (L) LF
Alex Bregman (R) 3B
Kyle Tucker (L) RF
Yuli Gurriel (R) 1B
Niko Goodrum (S) DH
Chas McCormick (R) CF
Jeremy Pena (R) SS
Martin Maldonado (R) C
Jose Urquidy (RHP) 1-0, 1.80 ERA
Mariners:
Adam Frazier (L) 2B
Ty France (R) 1B
Jesse Winker (L) LF
Eugenio Suarez (R) DH
J.P. Crawford (L) SS
Abraham Toro (S) 3B
Jarred Kelenic (L) RF
Julio Rodriguez (R) CF
Cal Raleigh (S) C
Matt Brash (RHP) 0-1, 3.38 ERA
Adam Frazier (L) 2B
Ty France (R) 1B
Jesse Winker (L) LF
Eugenio Suarez (R) DH
J.P. Crawford (L) SS
Abraham Toro (S) 3B
Jarred Kelenic (L) RF
Julio Rodriguez (R) CF
Cal Raleigh (S) C
Matt Brash (RHP) 0-1, 3.38 ERA
Statistical leaders
Astros:
Batting average: Jeremy Pena -- .345
Hits: Jeremy Pena -- 10
Home runs: Two tied -- 2
RBI: Alex Bregman -- 7
Wins: Five tied -- 1
Saves: Ryan Pressly -- 3
ERA: Justin Verlander -- 0.69
Mariners:
Batting average: J.P Crawford -- .379
Hits: J.P. Crawford -- 11
Home runs: Mitch Haniger -- 3
RBI: Mitch Haniger -- 7
Wins: Four tied -- 1
Saves: Two tied -- 1
ERA: Logan Gilbert -- 0.90
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
