Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/19/2025

by Rod Pearson

Friday, Jul 18, 2025
Game Time: 9:40 pm ET, Saturday, July 19, 2025
Venue:  T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA 
Where to Watch:  MLBN


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Astros +101, Mariners -123; Over/Under:  8 runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Astros +100, Mariners -120; Over/Under:  8 runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Astros +100, Mariners -120; Over/Under:  8 runs

Season Record

Houston Astros:  56-40 (1st place, AL West)
Seattle Mariners:  51-45 (2nd place, AL West)

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Recent Form
Houston Astros:  4-6 last 10
Seattle Mariners:  6-4 last 10



Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Preview and Analysis


The Astros are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Texas Rangers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 56-40 record overall and have a road record of 23-21. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Mariners on Saturday with the series opener still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 9th in the MLB with a .734 OPS. Brandon Walter is their starting pitcher on Friday while Lance McCullers Jr. is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 2-4 with a 6.48 ERA this season. His team lost 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 5 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 5 SO on 6 hits through 3 IP against the Texas Rangers.

The Mariners are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Detroit Tigers 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 51-45 record overall and have a home record of 25-21. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Astros on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 7th in the MLB with a .744 OPS. Luis Castillo is their starting pitcher on Friday while rookie pitcher Logan Evans is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 3-3 with a 3.75 ERA this season. His team lost their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 6 earned runs, 2 homers, and 2 walks with 2 strikeouts on 9 hits through 4.2 innings pitched against the New York Yankees.


Astros vs Mariners Prediction

The current betting odds have the Mariners listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Mariners have looked good in their games this season with their 51-45 record overall which has them right near the top of the AL West. They have also looked good in their own ballpark this year with their 25-21 home record. Meanwhile, the Astros have looked great in their games this season with their 56-40 record overall which has them right at the top of the AL West with one of the best records in the entire MLB. They have also been a good road team this year with their 23-21 road record. The Mariners have been the hotter team lately as they are 6-4 in their last 10 games while the Astros are 4-6, and they have the better pitching matchup to take advantage of here. McCullers Jr is on the mound for the Astros and he has been coming back from an injury, but he hasn't looked great in his few starts. He is 2-4 with a 6.48 ERA and has been giving up quite a few runs all year. He is coming off another bad start in which he gave up 5 earned runs and the team has lost 3 games in a row now with him starting too. The Mariners are going with Evans in this one and he doesn't have a lot of experience in the MLB since this is his rookie season, but he has looked good in his starts so far. He is 3-3 with a 3.75 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs in his starts. He did give up 6 earned runs in his last start and the team has lost 3 games in a row with him starting now, but that hasn't been a common theme for him this year and he will be looking to bounce back with a better start. The Mariners were also red hot going into the break and they are going to bring their best effort for this series since they have a chance to close the gap in the AL West. The best way to place a bet here is on the Mariners to win this game. 

Astros Mariners Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, July 19, 2025 (9:40 pm ET start time) is Mariners 8 Astros 5.
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MLB Betting Trends


Houston Astros: 122-88 (+27.5 units) on the moneyline in road games. 64-45 (+31.7 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 128-98 (+17.9 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 75-47 OVER vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game.

Seattle Mariners: 224-196 (-12.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 158-115 (-11.5 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 50-56 (-11.5 units) on the moneyline when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%). 14-7 OVER at home vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better.

Key Injuries


Houston Astros:  J. Meyers (CF) Ten Day IL - Calf. Z. Dezenzo (RF) Sixty Day IL - Hand. L. Guillorme (3B) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. Y. Alvarez (LF) Sixty Day IL - Hand. J. Pena (SS) Ten Day IL - Rib. S. Dubin (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. P. Leon (RF) Sixty Day IL - Knee. B. Rodgers (2B) Ten Day IL - Oblique. J. Melton (LF) Ten Day IL - Ankle. S. Arrighetti (SP) Sixty Day IL - Thumb. R. Blanco (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. McCormick (LF) Ten Day IL - Oblique. H. Wesneski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. L. Garcia (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Javier (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. France (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.

Seattle Mariners:  B. Miller (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. C. Snider (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. G. Santos (RP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. V. Robles (RF) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. R. Bliss (2B) Sixty Day IL - Biceps.


Notable Quotes


“[We’re in] a really good spot. If we would have drawn this up and envisioned us having a strong first half compared to last year -- 16 games over .500, five games up in the division -- that’s exactly where a team that’s trying to achieve a goal of winning the division, that’s exactly where we wanted to be.” - Joe Espada on his team this season. 


“I'm a strong guy, so it’s been really learning how to hone it in and and take your hits when maybe you're not getting those pitches in the heart of the plate, being able to take your hits when they're pitching to the edge.” - Cal Raleigh on his strong season hitting HR’s. 


Starting Lineups


Houston Astros
Isaac Paredes (R) DH
Cam Smith (R) RF
Jose Altuve (R) 2B
Christian Walker (R) 1B
Victor Caratini (S) C
Taylor Trammell (L) CF
Mauricio Dubón (R) 3B
Cooper Hummel (S) LF
Zack Short (R) SS

Seattle Mariners
J.P. Crawford (L) SS
Julio Rodríguez (R) CF
Cal Raleigh (S) DH
Randy Arozarena (R) LF
Luke Raley (L) 1B
Mitch Garver (R) C
Dominic Canzone (L) RF
Ben Williamson (R) 3B
Cole Young (L) 2B

Statistical Leaders


Houston Astros
Batting Average:  Jeremy Peña (.322)
Hits:  Jeremy Peña (102)
Home Runs:  Isaac Paredes (19)
RBI:  Jose Altuve (52)
Stolen Bases:  Jeremy Peña (15)
Wins:  Framber Valdez (10)
Saves:  Josh Hader (25)
ERA:  Héctor Neris (0.00)

Seattle Mariners
Batting Average:  Dominic Canzone (.319)
Hits:  J.P. Crawford (100)
Home Runs:  Cal Raleigh (38)
RBI:  Cal Raleigh (82)
Stolen Bases:  Julio Rodríguez (17)
Wins:  Bryan Woo (8)
Saves:  Andrés Muñoz (21)
ERA:  Sauryn Lao (0.00)

Managers:
Houston Astros: Joe Espada (2nd season)
Seattle Mariners: Dan Wilson (2nd season)



Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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