by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Aug 03, 2023
Game Time: 7:05 pm ET, Friday, August 4, 2023
Venue: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Where to Watch: Apple TV+
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Astros -135, Yankees +114; Over/Under: 9 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Astros -135, Yankees +114; Over/Under: 9 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Astros -135, Yankees +114; Over/Under: 9 runs
Season Record
Houston Astros: 62-47 (2nd place, AL West)
New York Yankees: 56-52 (5th place, AL East)
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Recent Form
Houston Astros: 7-3 last 10
New York Yankees: 5-5 last 10
Houston Astros vs New York Yankees Preview and Analysis
The Astros are entering this series on a 3 game winning streak and completed the sweep 3-0 in their 3-game series against the Cleveland Guardians in their last series. They enter this game with a 62-47 record overall and have a road record of 31-22. This is the 2nd game of a 4-game series with the Yankees on Friday with the series opener of this series still to be played on Thursday. Their offense ranks 14th in the MLB with a .735 OPS. Cristian Javier is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Hunter Brown is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 7-7 with a 4.12 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 4 Ks on 4 hits through 6 IP against the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Yankees are entering this series off a win but lost their 3-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 56-52 record overall and have a home record of 33-26. This is the 2nd game of a 4-game series with the Astros on Friday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Thursday. Their offense ranks 23rd in the MLB with a .706 OPS. Clarke Schmidt is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Luis Severino is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 2-5 with a 7.49 ERA this season. His team lost 4 of their last 5 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 9 earned runs, 1 homer, and 2 BB with 5 strikeouts on 10 hits through 3.1 innings played against the Baltimore Orioles.
Astros vs Yankees Prediction
The current betting odds have the Astros listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Yankees haven't been having a great season, they still have a winning record but they are at the bottom of the AL East right now and did nothing at the trade deadline to make a push. They have a lot of teams to climb in the AL just to get to the Wild Card spot and that includes the Astros who have been rolling in their games lately as they are on a mission to chase down the Rangers for 1st place in the AL West. The Astros are going to be really motivated in this game to beat up on the struggling Yankees and the Astros also owned most of the encounters against the Yankees last season too. It also helps that the Yankees have Severino starting here and he has been terrible in his starts this season, giving up a ton of runs lately too. The Yankees do have a good bullpen but it is not going to help if Severino gets blown up early in this game by this Astros offense that has been getting really hot lately. The Astros have also been pitching really well themselves lately and they have Brown starting here who hasn't been giving up a ton of runs in his starts. Brown will be able to keep this cold Yankees offense at bay while the Astros offense gets to work on Severino and it will be enough to win this game. The best way to place a bet here is on the Astros to win this game.
Astros Yankees Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Friday, August 4, 2023 (7:05 pm ET start time) is Astros 6 Yankees 2.
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MLB Betting Trends
Houston Astros: 36-17 (+16.4 units) on the moneyline when the total is 8.5 to 10. 31-22 (+9 units) on the moneyline in road games. 12-7 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5. 43-23 UNDER as a road favorite of -125 to -175.
New York Yankees: 17-28 (-12 units) on the moneyline when the money line is +125 to -125. 29-33 (-8.3 units) on the moneyline when the total is 8.5 to 10. LUIS SEVERINO is 6-0 UNDER against AL West opponents and 8-3 UNDER at home when the total is 8.5 to 10.
Key Injuries
Houston Astros: J. Urquidy (SP) Mid Aug - Shoulder. M. Brantley (DH) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. L. McCullers Jr. (SP) out for season - Elbow. L. Garcia (SP) out for season - Elbow.
New York Yankees: D. German (SP) out for season - Personal. J. Trevino (C) out for season - Wrist. F. Montas (SP) Mid Aug - Shoulder. L. Gil (RP) Mid Aug - Elbow. J. Loaisiga (RP) Mid Aug - Elbow. J. Donaldson (3B) out for season - Calf. N. Cortes Jr. (RP) Prob Sat - Shoulder. J. Cordero (RP) out for season - Suspension. R. Weber (RP) Mid Aug - Forearm. L. Trivino (RP) out for season - Elbow. S. Effross (RP) out for season - Elbow.
Notable Quotes
“You’ve got to have some guys hot in there, especially when you’re leaving runners on base because we had opportunities to blow that game open many times. So I’m just glad that Chas had a big day.” - Dusty Baker after his team’s win against the Guardians in their game on Wednesday.
“Obviously, an exciting night for us offensively and I thought it started from jump street.” - Aaron Boone after his team’s win against the Rays in their game on Wednesday.
Starting Lineups
Houston Astros
Mauricio Dubon (R) 2B
Jeremy Pena (R) SS
Kyle Tucker (L) RF
Alex Bregman (R) 3B
Yordan Alvarez (L) LF
Jose Abreu (R) 1B
Chas McCormick (R) CF
Yainer Diaz (R) C
Corey Julks (R) DH
New York Yankees
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R) LF
Aaron Judge (R) DH
Gleyber Torres (R) 2B
Giancarlo Stanton (R) RF
Jake Bauers (L) 1B
DJ LeMahieu (R) 3B
Harrison Bader (R) CF
Anthony Volpe (R) SS
Ben Rortvedt (L) C
Statistical Leaders
Houston Astros
Batting Average: Kyle Tucker (.300)
Hits: Kyle Tucker (117)
Home Runs: Yordan Alvarez (19)
RBI: Kyle Tucker (74)
Stolen Bases: Kyle Tucker (20)
Wins: Framber Valdez (9)
Saves: Ryan Pressly (26)
ERA: Kendall Graveman (0.00)
New York Yankees
Batting Average: Aaron Judge (.295)
Hits: Gleyber Torres (105)
Home Runs: Aaron Judge (20)
RBI: Gleyber Torres (45)
Stolen Bases: Anthony Volpe (20)
Wins: Gerrit Cole (10)
Saves: Clay Holmes (14)
ERA: Randy Vasquez (1.17)
Managers:
Houston Astros: Dusty Baker (4th season)
New York Yankees: Aaron Boone (6th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
