Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/10/2023

Game Time: 4:07 pm ET, Tuesday, October 10, 2023

Venue:  Target Field, Minneapolis, MN 

Where to Watch:  FOX

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Astros +114, Twins -135; Over/Under:  8 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Astros +115, Twins -135; Over/Under:  8 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Astros +115, Twins -135; Over/Under:  8 runs

Houston Astros:  90-72 (1st place, AL West)

Minnesota Twins:  87-75 (1st place, AL Central)

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Houston Astros:  6-4 last 10

Minnesota Twins:  7-3 last 10

The Astros are entering this series on a 4 game winning streak and completed the sweep 3-0 in their 3-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks in their last series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with a 90-72 record overall and had a road record of 51-30. This is the 3rd game of a best 3 out of 5 game series with the Twins on Tuesday for the AL Division Series and they won game 1 of this series on Saturday but lost game 2 on Sunday. Their offense ranks 5th in the MLB with a .768 OPS. Framber Valdez was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Cristian Javier is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 10-5 with a 4.56 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 2 BB with 4 strikeouts on 3 hits through 6 innings played against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Twins are entering this series on a 2 game winning streak and won their best 2 out of 3-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays 2-0 in the AL Wild Card Round. They finished the regular season with an 87-75 record overall and had a home record of 47-34. This is the 3rd game of a best 3 out of 5 game series with the Astros on Tuesday for the AL Division Series and they won game 2 of this series on Sunday but lost game 1 on Saturday. Their offense ranks 7th in the MLB with a .754 OPS. Pablo López was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Sonny Gray is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 8-8 with a 2.79 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB playoff start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 2 BB with 6 Ks on 5 hits through 5 IP against the Toronto Blue Jays.

The current betting odds have the Astros listed as an underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This series is tied up 1-1 after the Astros dropped a game at home but they have still been a really good team and will be looking to bounce back here on the road with the playoff experience on their side from winning the World Series last year. The Astros have a really good pitching staff this year and they did have the better record over the Twins all season. The Twins were a lot better at home this year where they are in this game but the Astros were also a lot better in their road games and actually had a better road record this season than the Twins had at home. The Astros have also had the stronger offense all season and that is going to give them the edge they need here with 2 solid starters on the mound for each team. The Astros will bounce back and take a series lead in this really important game to them as they now need to flip the home advantage back in their favor. The best way to place a bet here is on the Astros to win this game. 

Astros Twins Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, October 10, 2023 (4:07 pm ET start time) is Astros 3 Twins 2.

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Houston Astros: 27-14 (+17.3 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 51-30 (+19 units) on the moneyline in road games. 32-18 OVER in the division series. CRISTIAN JAVIER is 6-1 OVER as a road underdog of +100 or higher.

Minnesota Twins: 90-76 (-6.8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 68-58 (-7.8 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 46-43 (-7.9 units) on the moneyline after a win. 24-10 OVER against AL West opponents. 24-18 OVER after 2 or more consecutive overs.

Houston Astros:  K. Graveman (RP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. L. McCullers Jr. (SP) out for season - Elbow. L. Garcia (SP) out for season - Elbow.

Minnesota Twins:  N. Gordon (2B) Mid Oct - Shin. B. Buxton (DH) Mid Oct - Hamstring. J. Gallo (1B) Mid Oct - Foot. D. Keuchel (SP) out for season - Calf. J. Miranda (3B) out for season - Shoulder. O. Ortega (SP) out for season - Back. J. De Leon (RP) out for season - Elbow. T. Mahle (SP) out for season - Elbow.

“The command of my pitches wasn’t there. It wasn’t working.” - Framber Valdez after their loss against the Twins in game 2 of this series on Sunday.

“We’ve always heard all of the sayings and things, when the lights come on and the bright lights, there are some guys, they’re giants in the light, and he’s one of them. That’s what he is. He’s always an excellent player, but when it matters most, it’s like he can really take his attention and channel it and focus it and just play even better over and over again.” - Rocco Baldelli on Carlos Correa after his team’s win against the Astros in game 2 of this series on Sunday.

Jose Altuve (R) 2B

Alex Bregman (R) 3B

Yordan Alvarez (L) LF

Kyle Tucker (L) RF

Jose Abreu (R) 1B

Michael Brantley (L) DH

Chas McCormick (R) CF

Jeremy Pena (R) SS

Martin Maldonado (R) C

Donovan Solano (R) 1B

Jorge Polanco (S) 2B

Royce Lewis (R) DH

Carlos Correa (R) SS

Ryan Jeffers (R) C

Willi Castro (S) LF

Kyle Farmer (R) 3B

Max Kepler (L) RF

Michael A. Taylor (R) CF

Batting Average:  Jose Altuve (.311)

Hits:  Alex Bregman (163)

Home Runs:  Yordan Alvarez (31)

RBI:  Kyle Tucker (112)

Stolen Bases:  Kyle Tucker (30)

Wins:  Framber Valdez (12)

Saves:  Ryan Pressly (31)

ERA:  Bennett Sousa (0.00)

Batting Average:  Royce Lewis (.309)

Hits:  Carlos Correa (118)

Home Runs:  Max Kepler (24)

RBI:  Max Kepler (66)

Stolen Bases:  Willi Castro (33)

Wins:  Joe Ryan (11)

Saves:  Jhoan Duran (27)

ERA:  Brock Stewart (0.65)

Managers:

Houston Astros: Dusty Baker (4th season)

Minnesota Twins: Rocco Baldelli (5th season)