Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/05/2025

by Rod Pearson

Friday, Jul 04, 2025
Game Time: 7:15 pm ET, Saturday, July 5, 2025
Venue:  Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Where to Watch:  FOX


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Astros +123, Dodgers -150; Over/Under:  8.5 runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Astros +125, Dodgers -150; Over/Under:  8.5 runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Astros +125, Dodgers -150; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Season Record

Houston Astros:  52-35 (1st place, AL West)
Los Angeles Dodgers:  56-32 (1st place, NL West)

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Recent Form
Houston Astros:  8-2 last 10
Los Angeles Dodgers:  9-1 last 10



Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Dodgers Preview and Analysis


The Astros are entering this series off a loss and won their 3-game series against the Colorado Rockies 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 52-35 record overall and have a road record of 20-21. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Dodgers on Saturday with the series opener still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 13th in the MLB with a .724 OPS. Lance McCullers Jr. is their starting pitcher on Friday while Framber Valdez is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 9-4 with a 2.72 ERA this season. His team won their last 10 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 2 BB with 6 SO on 5 hits through 6 IP against the Chicago Cubs.

The Dodgers are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Chicago White Sox 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 56-32 record overall and have a home record of 33-14. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Astros on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 1st in the MLB with a .796 OPS. Ben Casparius is their starting pitcher on Friday while Shohei Ohtani is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 1 walk with 1 strikeout on 1 hit through 2 innings pitched against the Kansas City Royals.


Astros vs Dodgers Prediction

The current betting odds have the Astros listed as an underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Dodgers have looked great in their games this season with their 56-32 record overall which has them right at the top of the NL West with the best record in the entire MLB. They have also been one of the best home teams in the MLB this year with their 33-14 home record. Meanwhile, the Astros have looked great in their games this season with their 52-35 record overall which has them right at the top of the AL West with one of the best records in the entire MLB. They haven't been a great road team though with their 20-21 road record this season. Both of these teams have been really hot lately as the Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 games while the Dodgers are 9-1, but the Astros do have the better pitching matchup in this one and can take advantage of that. Ohtani is on the mound for the Dodgers and he is just starting to come back from his injury that has kept him from pitching this year. He is 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA and the team has won 2 of their last 3 games with him starting, but he has only had the 3 starts this year and hasn't pitched more than 2 innings in any of them. This will end up being more like a bullpen game for the Dodgers and that gives the Astros an advantage here as they do have the better starter and a great bullpen themselves. The Astros are going with Valdez in this one and he has looked great this year. He is 9-4 with a 2.72 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs all year. He is coming off another great start in which he gave up no runs, something that has been a common theme for him this season, and the team has had a ton of success with him starting, winning 10 games in a row now with him on the mound. The best way to place a bet here is on the Astros to win this game. 

Astros Dodgers Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, July 5, 2025 (7:15 pm ET start time) is Astros 3 Dodgers 0.
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MLB Betting Trends


Houston Astros: 25-17 (+3.7 units) on the moneyline against NL West opponents. 119-88 (+22.6 units) on the moneyline in road games. 125-98 (+13.1 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 73-46 OVER vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game.

Los Angeles Dodgers: 35-32 (-11.6 units) on the moneyline vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better. 38-22 (-1.6 units) on the moneyline vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs/game on the season. 79-53 (-3.8 units) on the moneyline against left-handed starters. 67-41 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%). 

Key Injuries


Houston Astros:  L. Guillorme (3B) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. Y. Alvarez (LF) Sixty Day IL - Hand. J. Pena (SS) Ten Day IL - Rib. S. Dubin (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. P. Leon (RF) Sixty Day IL - Knee. B. Rodgers (2B) Ten Day IL - Oblique. J. Melton (LF) Ten Day IL - Ankle. S. Arrighetti (SP) Sixty Day IL - Thumb. Z. Dezenzo (RF) Ten Day IL - Hand. R. Blanco (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. McCormick (LF) Ten Day IL - Oblique. H. Wesneski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. L. Garcia (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Javier (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. France (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.

Los Angeles Dodgers:  M. Muncy (3B) Ten Day IL - Knee. M. Kopech (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Knee. R. Sasaki (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. T. Gonsolin (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Glasnow (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. E. Phillips (RP) Sixty Day IL - forearm. B. Snell (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. B. Treinen (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. K. Hurt (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. M. Grove (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. B. Graterol (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. R. Ryan (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. G. Stone (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.


Notable Quotes


“I talked to him a little bit and he sounds happy. He sounds very encouraged about the news. If he’s happy, I’m happy.” - Joe Espada on the injury to Yordan Alvarez after his team’s loss against the Rockies in their game on Thursday.


"It's great and now it doesn't even feel like he missed 18 months or whatever it was. He just feels like he's a guy that's just kind of in a rhythm right now. Not all of them are going to be great, but again, the dependability, the consistency of innings that he's giving us. Every time he goes out there, we have a chance to win. And there's a lot of value with our club." - Dave Roberts after his team’s win against the White Sox in their game on Thursday.


Starting Lineups


Houston Astros
Isaac Paredes (R) 3B
Jake Meyers (R) CF
Jose Altuve (R) DH
Cam Smith (R) RF
Christian Walker (R) 1B
Victor Caratini (S) C
Cooper Hummel (S) LF
Shay Whitcomb (R) 2B
Mauricio Dubón (R) SS

Los Angeles Dodgers
Shohei Ohtani (L) DH
Mookie Betts (R) SS
Freddie Freeman (L) 1B
Teoscar Hernández (R) RF
Andy Pages (R) CF
Michael Conforto (L) LF
Tommy Edman (S) 2B
Dalton Rushing (L) C
Miguel Rojas (R) 3B

Statistical Leaders


Houston Astros
Batting Average:  Jeremy Peña (.322)
Hits:  Jeremy Peña (102)
Home Runs:  Isaac Paredes (17)
RBI:  Isaac Paredes (47)
Stolen Bases:  Jeremy Peña (15)
Wins:  Hunter Brown (9)
Saves:  Josh Hader (24)
ERA:  Shawn Dubin (1.33)

Los Angeles Dodgers
Batting Average:  Hyeseong Kim (.368)
Hits:  Shohei Ohtani (96)
Home Runs:  Shohei Ohtani (30)
RBI:  Andy Pages (58)
Stolen Bases:  Shohei Ohtani (12)
Wins:  Yoshinobu Yamamoto (8)
Saves:  Tanner Scott (18)
ERA:  Evan Phillips (0.00)

Managers:
Houston Astros: Joe Espada (2nd season)
Los Angeles Dodgers: Dave Roberts (10th season)


Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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