Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: Game 4 Odds, Picks and Preview -- 10/11/2021

by Chuck Sommers

Game time: 3:37 p.m. ET
Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
Where to watch: FS1

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: White Sox -135, Astros +115
BetMGM: White Sox -128, Astros +105
Caesars: White Sox -125, Astros +115

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Astros - White Sox preview and analysis


Game 4, American League Division Series -- Astros lead 2-1


The Chicago White Sox decided Sunday night would not be the time they’d go quietly. 

After five runs through the first two games, the White Sox exploded for 12 runs and got on the board in the ALDS with a 12-6 win over the Houston Astros in Game 3.

But the celebration from last night will be short-lived if the White Sox can’t send the series back to Houston for a winner-take-all matchup. Game 4 of the series is Monday in Chicago.

“This place was rocking tonight,” White Sox catcher Yasmani Grandal said. “I haven't seen it -- these fans are incredible, so the fact that everybody was here, it was great. All blacked out. It was awesome. Hopefully we'll have it tomorrow again, and, you know, keep rocking.”

Things looked dire for Chicago. The Astros led 5-1 after the top of the third, led by four RBI from Kyle Tucker capped off with a two-run home run in the upper half of the third. Chicago answered in kind with five runs in the bottom half. Grandal hit a two-run homer to cut the lead to 5-3, and then Leury Garcia connected on a deep three-run homer to center field to give Chicago the lead.

Alex Bregman tied it 6-6 in the top of the fourth with an RBI single, but the White Sox poured it on again with three more runs in the bottom of the inning with RBI singles from Jose Abreu and Eloy Jimenez.

“The guys were, ‘Hey, we got a lot of game. A lot of game. We're going to keep playing. We're going to play nine,’” Chicago manager Tony La Russa said. “They're going to play nine. That's the way they are. It's really a tough-minded bunch, and sometimes you get rewarded with a comeback like that, but it's just the way we've been.”

The 1-5 batters for the White Sox each had a hit, including a 3-for-6 day from leadoff man Tim Anderson. Grandal had three RBI, and Garcia went 2-for-5 with four RBI in the eight spot. The offense did more than enough to overcome starter Dylan Cease’s short night (1.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 BB, 2 strikeouts).

Both teams used six pitchers each in Game 3. Astros starter Luis Garcia lasted only 2.2 innings while giving up five runs and walking three. The difference was the Houston bullpen couldn’t keep it together like Chicago’s did. Michael Kopech threw 2.1 innings of relief in place of Cease, giving up three runs while striking out five. Two Houston relievers alone lasted two-thirds of an inning and gave up seven.

Four other, led by four strikeouts from Aaron Bummer in 1.2 innings, combined to throw five innings of no-hit ball.

“We've been there before,” Astros catcher Martín Maldonado said. “It's not the first time we lost a game. I think last year we lost the third game [in the ALDS] against the Oakland A’s, so I think we're going to go out there and play hard like we always do. I don't think that's changed the outcome of our mentality going into tomorrow's game.”

Houston’s heart of the lineup only had three hits, two from Bregman, in the loss. Jose Altuve went 0-for-3 with two walks, and Yordan Alvarez struck out three times while going 0-for-3. AL batting champ Yuri Gurriel went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts.

Not only did Chicago survive Game 3 to extend its season, but the White Sox are going into Game 4 with arguably their best pitcher on the mound. Carlos Rodon will get the start Monday afternoon, bringing in his 13-5 record with a 2.37 ERA.

Houston will send right-hander Jose Urquidy to the bump in opposition. He had an 8-3 record with 3.62 ERA this season.

Prediction


It was a calculated gamble by La Russa saving Rodon for Game 4, but it worked out better than even he could’ve thought. If it had anybody else, it might be tough for the White Sox to rally. But I feel much better about Rodon coming in clutch and sending the series back to Houston for Game 5, and that’s where it heads. White Sox win 8-5

Betting trends


The White Sox are 13-4 at home this season (+8.9 net games on the money line) and 32-20 the last three seasons when the money line is +125 to -175.

Chicago is 3-5 since 1997 when trailing in a playoff series.

The White Sox are 48-37 the last three years in games following when they lost three of their last four.

Projected lineup


Astros:
Jose Altuve (R) 2B
Michael Brantley (L) LF
Alex Bregman (R) 3B
Yordan Alvarez (L) DH
Carlos Correa (R) SS
Kyle Tucker (L) RF
Yuli Gurriel (R) 1B
Jake Meyers (R) CF
Martin Maldonado (R) C

White Sox:
Tim Anderson (R) SS
Luis Robert (R) CF
Jose Abreu (R) 1B
Yasmani Grandal (S) C
Eloy Jimenez (R) LF
Yoan Moncada (S) 3B
Gavin Sheets (L) DH
Leury Garcia (S) RF
Cesar Hernandez (S) 2B

Probable starting pitchers: Jose Urquidy (HOU) vs. Carlos Rodon (CWS)

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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