Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/20/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 5:08 pm ET, Wednesday, October 20, 2021
Venue:  Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Where to Watch:  Fox Sports 1


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  NL; Over/Under:  NL runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  NL; Over/Under NL runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Astros +105, Red Sox -130; Over/Under 10 runs

Season Record

Houston Astros:  95-67 (1st place, AL West)
Boston Red Sox:  92-70 (3rd place, AL East)
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Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Preview and Analysis

Recent Form
Houston Astros:  6-4 last 10
Boston Red Sox:  8-2 last 10

Houston Astros Analysis

The Astros are coming into this game after tying this series 2-2 with a win on Tuesday night. After losing 2 games straight to the Red Sox their offense finally showed up with a big 9-2 win. This will be game 5 of this best-of-seven series on Wednesday. Zack Greinke got the nod in game 4 on Tuesday while Framber Valdez will be the starting pitcher in this game 5 on Wednesday. He is 11-6 with a 3.14 ERA this season. He has already started in 2 games this postseason and both were no-decisions but his team is 2-0 in those games. In his last start, he allowed 3 runs, 2 ER, 1 being a HR, and 3 BB with 2 Ks on 6 hits through 2.2 IP against the Red Sox last Friday. He has seen the Red Sox lineup 3 times this season and he is 2-0 against them while his team is 3-0 in those games. His worst start was his most recent one in game 1 of this series when he allowed 3 runs in under 3 innings. Their offense has scored 22 runs in their last 4 games averaging over 5 runs scored per game in that span and they have allowed their opponents to score 27 runs against them in that same span allowing a little under 7 runs per game.

Boston Red Sox Analysis

The Red Sox are coming into this game after blowing their 2-1 lead in the 8th inning and then letting the Astros score 7 runs in the 9th inning to win the game 9-2 and tie the series up 2-2. This will be game 5 of this series on Wednesday. Nick Pivetta was the starter in their game on Tuesday while Chris Sale will be throwing the first pitch in this game 5 on Wednesday. Sale is 5-1 with a 3.16 ERA this season. He has already started in 2 games in these playoffs and both of them were no-decisions while his team is 1-1 in those games. In his last start, he allowed 1 ER and 1 BB with 2 strikeouts on 5 hits through 2.2 innings of work last Friday. He has only faced the Astros in that 1 game this year and he struggled quite a bit in that game getting pulled in the 3rd inning. He also struggled in his first start of these playoffs allowing 5 runs in the 1st inning of their game against the Tampa Bay Rays. Their offense has scored 27 runs in their last 4 games averaging a little under 7 runs scored per game in that span and they have allowed their opponents to score 22 runs in that same span allowing over 5 runs per game.


Astros vs Red Sox Prediction

The Astros just tied up the series in the last game and scored 9 runs in that one, shifting the momentum to their side coming into this game. Framber Valdez had a good start the last time he saw them earlier in the series while Chris Sale struggled a lot in his start against the Astros and has consistently struggled in these playoffs. Now that the bats are awake for the Astros they will be hard to stop and will likely rock Sale on the mound here. The best bet to place in this game is on the Astros to win with the momentum in the series shifting to their side.
Astros Red Sox Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, October 20, 2021 (5:08 pm ET start time) is Astros 10 Red Sox 6.
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MLB Betting Trends

Houston Astros: Will be posted soon.
Boston Red Sox: Will be posted soon.

Key Injuries

Houston Astros:  P. Valdez (RP) Out indefinitely - Illness.
Boston Red Sox:  J. Meyers (CF) Ques Tues - Shoulder injury. L. Garcia (SP) day-to-day - Knee injury. P. Baez (RP) Late Oct - Shoulder injury.

Players to Watch

Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez is one player to watch in this matchup. He led his team in home runs and in RBI during the regular season. His team did not do much in game 3 only scoring 3 runs but he contributed in that game with 1 hit and 1 run scored. Look for him to keep it up and contribute to some runs in this game to help his team win this one.
Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers is one player to watch in this contest. He led his team in hits, home runs and in RBI. He had a great game in game 3 as he had 1 hit, 1 RBI and scored 2 runs in that game. He has been a key piece in this offense all season and has been killing it in the playoffs. Look for him to stay hot here and help his team score more runs in this game.

Notable Quotes

"They count as one (loss). We come back and win tomorrow and the series is even. You don't like it tonight, but you come back in the morning." - Dusty Baker on their loss to the Astros in game 3.
"It's one of the best plays in baseball, man. You give up a grand slam, it takes a lot out of you. And just to kind of keep stepping on their neck and adding the pressure, it's huge." - Alex Verdugo on his team hitting a grand slam in the 2nd inning of game 3.

Starting Lineups

Houston Astros
J. Altuve 2B
M. Brantley LF
A. Bregman 3B
Y. Alvarez DH
C. Correa SS
K. Tucker RF
Y. Gurriel 1B
J. Siri CF
M. Maldonado C
Boston Red Sox
K. Schwarber 1B
E. Hernandez CF
R. Devers 3B
X. Bogaerts SS
A. Verdugo LF
J.D. Martinez DH
H. Renfroe RF
C. Vazquez C
C. Arroyo 2B

Statistical Leaders

Houston Astros
Batting Average:  Y. Gurriel (.319)
Hits:  Y. Gurriel (169)
Home Runs:  Y. Alvarez (33)
RBI:  Y. Alvarez (104)
Stolen Bases:  K. Tucker (14)
Wins:  L. McCullers Jr. (13)
Saves:  R. Pressly (26)
ERA:  K. Graveman (1.77)
Boston Red Sox
Batting Average:  X. Bogaerts (.295)
Hits:  R. Devers (166)
Home Runs:  R. Devers (38)
RBI:  R. Devers (115)
Stolen Bases:  C. Vazquez (8)
Wins:  E. Rodriguez (13)
Saves:  M. Barnes (24)
ERA:  R. Brasier (1.50)
Houston Astros: Dusty Baker (2nd season)
Boston Red Sox: Alex Cora (3rd season, non-consecutive)

Weather Forecast

68 degrees F partly cloudy, 58% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 8 mph wind speeds E.

Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

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