Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves: Game 4 Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 10/30/2021

by Chuck Sommers

Time: 8:09 p.m. ET
Venue: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Where to watch: FOX

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Both -110
BetMGM: Both -110
Caesars: NL

Tom Stryker has cashed all three of his World Series wagers including last night's payday on the Braves and he's back with another diamond dandy that will deliver the cash. Four highly profitable trends support this selection along with one intangible that will definitely be the difference. Catch Tom’s and other plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers. 

Astros - Braves preview and analysis


World Series, Game 4 -- Braves lead 2-1

Not as high-scoring as the first two games, but the Atlanta Braves proved they can win pitching duels, too.

Led by five innings of no-hit ball from 23-year-old ace Ian Anderson, the Braves needed only two runs to take a 2-1 lead in the World Series, winning 2-0 against the Houston Astros in Game 3 on Friday night.

Game 4 is on Saturday in Atlanta.

Between five pitchers (four relievers), the Braves combined for two hits and struck out seven. Anderson's three walks, whether analytically sound or not, was merit for him to come out after five. The fact of the matter is he bested Astros starter Luis Garcia (3.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 BB, 6 strikeouts) and got the win.

And more importantly, the Braves are two wins away from a World Series title. That’s certainly not the spookiest thing this October.

“The goal of every game is to get a win,” said Braves catcher Travis d'Arnaud. “I think a no-hitter would have been a bonus, but when they got that hit, that wasn't our goal when the game started. It was just to go out there, execute pitches, get outs and end with a win. That's ultimately what we did.”

The Atlanta catcher hit his second home run of the series in the bottom of the eighth inning, a blast that went 437 feet and proved to be an ever-crucial insurance run.

Austin Riley continued his strong postseason with an RBI double in the bottom of the third to get the scoring in motion. Outside of that, nothing was had from the Atlanta offense and didn't need to be.

d'Arnaud went 2-for-4, while Eddie Rosario, Freddie Freeman and Adam Duvall each had a hit on the scorecard.

But this day belonged to the pitching. This was the longest no-hit bid in a World Series game since Jim Lonborg went 7.2 innings for the Boston Red Sox in 1967. Between Anderson, A.J. Minter and Luke Jackson, it was a dominant effort by the Braves in their first World Series game at home since 1999.

“Obviously, you want the chance to compete,” Anderson said, “especially on the biggest stage like this is. Yeah, I knew [Braves manager Brian Snitker] wasn't going to budge. It's hard to. You've got guys like [Tyler Matzek] and Minter and Luke and [Will Smith] at the back end coming in, you can't blame him for going to those guys. Those guys, time in and time out, get it done, and they did it again tonight.”

The Braves have the next two games at home and now a chance to close this series at home, but the Astros have been in this situation before. They trailed the Red Sox 2-1 in the ALCS before curb-stomping the Sox in the final three to reach the World Series.

History is sort of on the Braves' side. The winner of Game 3 in the World Series when the Fall Classic was tied at 1-1 goes on to win 65 percent of the time, and has been the case in six of the last nine World Series.

“Invariably, when you shut us down, usually our guys come back the next day and score a bunch,” Astros manager Dusty Baker said. “So I hope history repeats itself.”

Zack Greinke will get the opportunity to alter course in Game 4 on the mound for the Astros. At time of publishing, the Braves have not named a starting pitcher.

HOU - ATL Prediction


We've gone with the Braves in every game this series and it's worked so far. It only seems like the Astros will bounce back. If they go down 3-1 with that crowd in line for Game 5, it's over. I can't imagine that group being silenced for two straight games the way they were. The Braves have performed admirably as the underdogs (though the books don’t indicate such things), but this series is going to go as long as it can. Astros win 5-4

Betting trends


The Astros are 38-24 (+3.4 net games on the moneyline) in games after allowing two runs or less. They’re also 8-9 after scoring one run or less.

Houston is 38-32 after a loss this season.

The Braves are 64-29 (+30.2 net games) after scoring two runs or less over the past three seasons.

The Braves are 11-3 after playing a game with a combined score of two runs or less.

Atlanta is 25-12 the past three seasons following a shutout of its opponent.

Projected lineup


Astros:
Jose Altuve (R) 2B
Michael Brantley (L) RF
Alex Bregman (R) 3B
Yordan Alvarez (L) LF
Carlos Correa (R) SS
Kyle Tucker (L) CF
Yuli Gurriel (R) 1B
Martin Maldonado (R) C
Zack Greinke (R) P

Braves:
Eddie Rosario (L) LF
Freddie Freeman (L) 1B
Ozzie Albies (S) 2B
Austin Riley (R) 3B
Jorge Soler (R) RF
Adam Duvall (R) CF
Travis d'Arnaud (R) C
Dansby Swanson (R) SS
TBD P

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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