Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves: Game 3 Prediction, Preview, Picks and Odds -- 10/29/2021

by Chuck Sommers

Game time: 8:09 p.m. ET
Venue: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Where to watch: FOX

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings: Both -115
BetMGM: Braves -115, Astros -105
Caesars: Braves -111, Astros +101

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Astros - Braves preview and analysis

World Series, Game 3 -- Series tied 1-1

The World Series is a best-of-5, and it’s coming back to Atlanta.

The excitement is going to be through the roof in Game 3 of the World Series when the Atlanta Braves host the Houston Astros on Friday.

It’s been a surprising trend through two games to see how the books have played this series. There has been no separation as far as the favorite and dog. The Braves proved that in Game 1 with a dominant victory, only for the Astros to rock Max Fried in Game 2 and win 7-2.

"They knew that we needed that game," Astros manager Dusty Baker said. "And the roof being open, I mean, rarely is it open. Usually it's not that cool. Usually it's humid and muggy, and you welcome the roof closed. So it was different."

The Astros got five strong innings from starting pitcher Jose Urquidy to go along with seven strikeouts, and Jose Altuve woke up by going 2-for-5 with a solo home run. Six different Astros drove in a run, while Michael Brantley was the only other Astros hitter to have a multi-hit game.

"I would say it was a must-win today," Altuve said. "We didn't want to go to Atlanta down by two. So we left everything we had in there tonight. Obviously, very important win to tie the series to keep going from there."

Suddenly, it’s a brand-new series and neither team has put together any separation. But the series now shifts to Atlanta where the Braves are expected to have a ridiculous crowd ready for their first World Series game since October 1999 when they were swept by the New York Yankees.

This isn’t one of those times, obviously, but the Braves did at least steal home-field advantage when that seemed impossible coming into this series.

"Obviously, I'm not happy about it," Fried said. "Playoffs is a big momentum game. You got to do everything you can to keep the crooked number off the scoreboard. At the end of the day, they put up four runs in that inning. You need to do better next time, just making pitches, getting out of it."

The heart of the Atlanta lineup went pretty quiet with only four hits between Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley and Jorge Soler. Travis d’Arnaud did go 2-for-4 and hit a solo home run in the second to get the Braves on the board, but nothing more than that. NLCS MVP Eddie Rosario went 0-for-4 and struck out once.

Luis Garcia will return to the mound for Houston for the first time since his close-out gem in Game 6 of the ALCS against the Boston Red Sox. In that matchup he struck out seven over 5.2 innings of work in his best outing of the postseason so far.

Getting the call for the Braves will be 23-year-old star Ian Anderson, who is coming off four innings of one-earned-run ball in Game 6 of the NLCS against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Anderson is 1-0 this postseason with a 2.25 ERA.


The Braves have found ways to be resilient all postseason, even going back as far as Game 1 with Charlie Morton leaving after a few innings. Anderson is the ace of the future and one would like to think with the home crowd behind him, that he’ll take command Friday night and show the Astros this isn’t going to be a cakewalk. Atlanta wins and takes the series lead. Braves win 5-4

Betting trends

The Astros are 46-16 (+23.4 net games on the moneyline) when playing after a day off over the past three seasons.

The Astros are 1-4 this season when Garcia pitches and Hoston is a road dog of +100 or higher.

The Braves are 12-2 this season when Anderson pitches at home.

The Braves are 63-29 the last three seasons after scoring two runs or less in the previous game.

Projected lineup

Jose Altuve (R) 2B
Michael Brantley (L) CF
Alex Bregman (R) 3B
Yordan Alvarez (L) LF
Carlos Correa (R) SS
Kyle Tucker (L) RF
Yuli Gurriel (R) 1B
Martin Maldonado (R) C
Luis Garcia (R) P

Eddie Rosario (L) LF
Freddie Freeman (L) 1B
Ozzie Albies (S) 2B
Austin Riley (R) 3B
Joc Pederson (L) RF
Adam Duvall (R) CF
Travis d'Arnaud (R) C
Dansby Swanson (R) SS
Ian Anderson (R) P

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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