by Team Del Genio
Sunday, Mar 29, 2026Has it ever been safer to bet double-digit favorites in the NBA than right now? With tanking seemingly an epidemic at the lower half of the standings, it is not uncommon for almost half the games on the daily NBA card to feature teams that the oddsmakers installed as a double-digit favorite.
These double-digit underdogs often do not come close to covering the point spread, despite all the points they are getting from the oddsmakers. Take the Brooklyn Nets on Monday (March 23rd). They are one of the several teams in the NBA fully committing to tanking the rest of the season. They had lost seventeen of their previous nineteen games and seven games in a row after a 126-122 loss at Sacramento the day before.
The Nets had covered the point spread only once in their previous eleven games when playing without a day of rest. At first glance, some bettors may get scared off by the large point spread in this game. Yet in Brooklyn’s previous three games played without rest ended in losses by 38, 37, and 19 points.
The oddsmakers had installed six of the ten favorites tonight as double-digit favorites for a reason. This is the reality of the NBA in March, given the current rules and incentives to capture more ping pong balls for the NBA draft. Three of the Nets’ previous seven losses during their current losing streak had been by 19 or more points. Nine of their previous seventeen losses had been by 16 or more points.
Brooklyn is able to tank while still asking their players to compete because they are not putting great players on the court. Head coach Jordi Hernandez is using the remaining games to audition the healthy rookies. Rookie Egor Demin, the eighth pick in last summer’s draft, is out for the season with an injury. Day’ron Sharpe is also out for the season with an injury. Yet the biggest loss is Michael Porter, Jr., by far their best player, who is dealing with a left hamstring injury that has kept him out of the previous seven games. He is not likely to play the rest of the season. He is the team’s leading scorer at 24.2 points per game. Without Porter on the court, Brooklyn’s offensive efficiency drops by -10.2 points to 102.0. That is the biggest drop in offensive efficiency in the NBA for a player with at least 1000 minutes played this year.
The Nets had covered the point spread in four of their previous thirteen games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog of 12.5 or more points. They had covered the point spread in nine of their previous twenty-five games on the road when playing a non-conference opponent, and they had covered the point spread in five of their previous thirteen games on the road when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 210 to 219.5.
One of Brooklyn’s recent losses of 19 or more points came on March 16th in a 114-95 loss at home against the Portland Trail Blazers as an 11-point underdog. They had the opportunity to avenge that loss, yet the Nets had covered the point spread in eight of their previous twenty-two games when playing with revenge from a loss at home in their previous game against their current opponent.
Portland had won three games in a row before a 128-112 loss at Denver yesterday. The Trail Blazers had covered the point spread in seven straight games after losing to a division opponent in their previous game. They had covered the point spread in nine of their previous fourteen games played without rest. Portland is likely destined to compete in the play-in tournament for the playoffs next month. They can struggle against the better teams in the league, yet they take advantage of their opportunities to play the worst teams in the league. They had a 15-1 record in their previous sixteen games against the bottom-10 teams in the league, with an offensive rating of 120 in those games.
Slow starts had plagued the Blazers for much of the season, yet in their previous four games, they had posted an offensive rating of 142 in the first quarter. Second-year pro Donovan Clingan is having a breakout season on both ends of the court. He is one of eight players in the NBA who are averaging double-digits in points and rebounds per game. Opponents are only making 43.5% of their shots at the rim when Clingan is on the court. The Trail Blazers have held their previous seven opponents to a 51.0% shooting percentage in the paint. Portland has been consistent at home this year, where they have covered the point spread in twenty of their thirty-four games.
Despite being a 15.5-point favorite, the Trail Blazers were our NBA Game of the Month in this game. After taking a five-point lead after the first quarter, Portland outscored the Nets by 13 points in the second quarter to go into halftime with a 69-51 lead. They extended their lead by another six points in the third quarter before cruising to an easy 133-99 victory and a comfortable point spread cover.
When teams like Brooklyn are consistently losing by 30 or more points when playing without a day of rest, taking favorites of 15 or so points becomes quite reasonable.
Good luck - TDG.
These double-digit underdogs often do not come close to covering the point spread, despite all the points they are getting from the oddsmakers. Take the Brooklyn Nets on Monday (March 23rd). They are one of the several teams in the NBA fully committing to tanking the rest of the season. They had lost seventeen of their previous nineteen games and seven games in a row after a 126-122 loss at Sacramento the day before.
The Nets had covered the point spread only once in their previous eleven games when playing without a day of rest. At first glance, some bettors may get scared off by the large point spread in this game. Yet in Brooklyn’s previous three games played without rest ended in losses by 38, 37, and 19 points.
The oddsmakers had installed six of the ten favorites tonight as double-digit favorites for a reason. This is the reality of the NBA in March, given the current rules and incentives to capture more ping pong balls for the NBA draft. Three of the Nets’ previous seven losses during their current losing streak had been by 19 or more points. Nine of their previous seventeen losses had been by 16 or more points.
Brooklyn is able to tank while still asking their players to compete because they are not putting great players on the court. Head coach Jordi Hernandez is using the remaining games to audition the healthy rookies. Rookie Egor Demin, the eighth pick in last summer’s draft, is out for the season with an injury. Day’ron Sharpe is also out for the season with an injury. Yet the biggest loss is Michael Porter, Jr., by far their best player, who is dealing with a left hamstring injury that has kept him out of the previous seven games. He is not likely to play the rest of the season. He is the team’s leading scorer at 24.2 points per game. Without Porter on the court, Brooklyn’s offensive efficiency drops by -10.2 points to 102.0. That is the biggest drop in offensive efficiency in the NBA for a player with at least 1000 minutes played this year.
The Nets had covered the point spread in four of their previous thirteen games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog of 12.5 or more points. They had covered the point spread in nine of their previous twenty-five games on the road when playing a non-conference opponent, and they had covered the point spread in five of their previous thirteen games on the road when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 210 to 219.5.
One of Brooklyn’s recent losses of 19 or more points came on March 16th in a 114-95 loss at home against the Portland Trail Blazers as an 11-point underdog. They had the opportunity to avenge that loss, yet the Nets had covered the point spread in eight of their previous twenty-two games when playing with revenge from a loss at home in their previous game against their current opponent.
Portland had won three games in a row before a 128-112 loss at Denver yesterday. The Trail Blazers had covered the point spread in seven straight games after losing to a division opponent in their previous game. They had covered the point spread in nine of their previous fourteen games played without rest. Portland is likely destined to compete in the play-in tournament for the playoffs next month. They can struggle against the better teams in the league, yet they take advantage of their opportunities to play the worst teams in the league. They had a 15-1 record in their previous sixteen games against the bottom-10 teams in the league, with an offensive rating of 120 in those games.
Slow starts had plagued the Blazers for much of the season, yet in their previous four games, they had posted an offensive rating of 142 in the first quarter. Second-year pro Donovan Clingan is having a breakout season on both ends of the court. He is one of eight players in the NBA who are averaging double-digits in points and rebounds per game. Opponents are only making 43.5% of their shots at the rim when Clingan is on the court. The Trail Blazers have held their previous seven opponents to a 51.0% shooting percentage in the paint. Portland has been consistent at home this year, where they have covered the point spread in twenty of their thirty-four games.
Despite being a 15.5-point favorite, the Trail Blazers were our NBA Game of the Month in this game. After taking a five-point lead after the first quarter, Portland outscored the Nets by 13 points in the second quarter to go into halftime with a 69-51 lead. They extended their lead by another six points in the third quarter before cruising to an easy 133-99 victory and a comfortable point spread cover.
When teams like Brooklyn are consistently losing by 30 or more points when playing without a day of rest, taking favorites of 15 or so points becomes quite reasonable.
Good luck - TDG.
