by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Sep 29, 2026
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, October 4, 2026
Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Packers -3.5, Buccaneers +3.5; Over/Under: 39.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Packers -4, Buccaneers +4; Over/Under: 39.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Packers -4, Buccaneers +4; Over/Under: 39.5 points
Season Record
Green Bay Packers: 1-2 (4th place, NFC North)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0-3 (4th place, NFC South)
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Recent Form
Green Bay Packers: lost their last game at home against the Atlanta Falcons 35-14.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: lost their last game at home against the Minnesota Vikings 23-19.
Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview and Analysis
The Packers are entering this game with a 1-2 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 0-1 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Atlanta Falcons 35-14. Jordan Love was the starting QB and he completed 28/53 passes for 312 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. MarShawn Lloyd led the team in rushing yards with 11. Matthew Golden led the receivers with 100 receiving yards on 5 receptions and 1 TD. Zaire Franklin and Evan Williams each led the defense in that game with 10 solo tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. Xavier McKinney came away with the only interception for them in that one.
The Buccaneers are entering this game with a 0-3 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 0-2 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Minnesota Vikings 23-16. Baker Mayfield was the starting QB and he completed 17/34 passes for 217 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Bucky Irving led the team in rushing yards with 46. Emeka Egbuka led the receivers with 62 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Alex Anzalone, Tykee Smith, Keionte Scott, Jacob Parrish, and Antoine Winfield Jr. each led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles while Alex Anzalone, David Walker, and Anthony Nelson each led the defense in sacks with 1. A'Shawn Robinson came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Packers vs Buccaneers Prediction
The current betting odds have the Packers listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Packers haven't looked good in their games this season with their 1-2 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the NFC North. They haven't been a great road team either with their 1-1 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have looked terrible in their games this season with their 0-3 record overall which has them right at the bottom of the NFC South. They have looked terrible on their home field too with their 0-2 home record this season. The Buccaneers are coming off a 23-16 loss to the Vikings in their last one and they have been a big disaster this season. They lost at home to a Vikings team that didn't take a single snap in the red zone and now they have lost their starting QB Baker Mayfield to injury. The defense looked better against the Vikings, but that was also against a bad offense and the Buccaneers offense has been a mess themselves. The Packers haven't looked any better this season and they just got embarrassed in their home opener by the Falcons, losing 35-14. Their offense has been a disaster too with a ton of injuries all over, but they still have their starting QB Jordon Love and he has the talent to put the team on his back here in a desperate situation. The Packers can't lose this game with how bad the Bucs have looked this season and they have a big advantage with the Bucs rolling out rookie QB Jalon Daniels who went undrafted. This should be a get right game for the Packers, so look for the Packers to take advantage of this disaster start to the season in Tampa Bay. The best way to place a bet here is on the Packers to cover the spread in this game.
Packers Buccaneers Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, October 4, 2026 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Packers 24 Buccaneers 10.
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NFL Betting Trends
Green Bay Packers: 26-17 ATS versus good rushing defenses - allowing 3.5 rushing yards/carry or less. 24-17 ATS on the road after scoring 14 points or less last game. 27-19 ATS on the road after allowing 30 points or more last game. 8-4 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 33-19 OVER against NFC South division opponents.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0-6 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread. 6-14 ATS in home games. 3-8 ATS vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game. 11-6 OVER after playing a game at home. 10-3 OVER versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 130 rushing yards/game or more.
Key Injuries
Green Bay Packers: A. Banks (OG) Injured - Knee. W. Brinson (DL) Injured - Calf. K. Brooks (DL) Injured - Illness. A. Campbell (DL) Injured - Ankle. E. Cooper (LB) Injured - Shoulder. J. Monk (OG) Injured - Quadricep. L. Van Ness (DL) Injured - Shoulder.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: R. Nunez-Roches (DL) Injured - Ankle. C. Godwin Jr. (WR) Injured - Ankle. B. Mayfield (QB) Injured - Thumb. K. Kieft (TE) Injured - Elbow. S. Dennis (LB) Injured - Calf. Y. Diaby (LB) Injured - Calf. B. Irving (RB) Injured - Glute. J. Parrish (CB) Injured - Personal. R. Bain Jr. (LB) Injured - Groin. J. Trotter (LB) Injured - Shoulder. K. Scott (CB) Injured - Toe.
Notable Quotes
“It was a butt-whooping. That was at least three-quarter butt-whooping right there.” - Matt LaFleur after his team’s loss against the Falcons in their last game.
“I'm sure it looks bleak. It's not ideal. Definitely not the start we wanted and we never want to lose (Mayfield) but that's where we are right now and the reality is we have to pull ourselves out of this hole.” - Chris Godwin Jr. after their loss against the Vikings in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Green Bay Packers
WR Watson, Christian
WR Golden, Matthew
WR Moore, Skyy
TE Kraft, Tucker
QB Love, Jordan
RB Lloyd, MarShawn
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
WR Hurst III, Ted
WR Egbuka, Emeka
WR Godwin Jr., Chris
TE Otton, Cade
QB Daniels, Jalon
RB Irving, Bucky
Statistical Leaders
Green Bay Packers
Passing: Jordan Love (844)
Rushing: MarShawn Lloyd (68)
Receiving: Christian Watson (284)
Touchdowns: Christian Watson (4)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Passing: Baker Mayfield (615)
Rushing: Bucky Irving (180)
Receiving: Emeka Egbuka (141)
Touchdowns: Bucky Irving (1)
Coaches:
Green Bay Packers: Matt LaFleur (8th season)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Todd Bowles (5th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
